ND DFM Research: Heitkamp +18 in East Cities (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/DFMresearch/status/1046932356051947521

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Both this and Cramer leading by 10 are bs.

DFM got ND-SEN right in 2012, but go off.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)

Oh, cool. Thanks for the link. I presume that's your site? Looks data rich!

So to the degree that which we can extrapolate these numbers, this is probably good news for her?

Yes, it's my site.

Hard to say. If all else remains the same in the state, yes, it's good news for Heitkamp. But if Western North Dakota, which has rapidly grown since 2012, tilts even more R than in 2012, even D+17 might not be enough.

The only thing I can definitively say is that assuming the pollster is correct that the areas polled were D+14 last time, it's not consistent with a double-digit Heitkamp loss.

The fact that the (presumably D internal) pollster keeps on releasing favorable regional crosstabs instead of the topline should tell us that Heitkamp is behind statewide by something.

https://twitter.com/DFMresearch/status/1046965908370087936

Huh...

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/DFMresearch/status/1046974170599477260

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Press release:

https://demnpl.com/new-eastern-polling-data-demonstrates-heitkamps-strength-in-tight-north-dakota-senate/

Polling memo:

https://demnpl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ND-East-Regional-Topline-1.pdf