ND DFM Research: Heitkamp +18 in East Cities (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)

[cinyc]

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)

[cinyc]

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)

Oh, cool. Thanks for the link. I presume that's your site? Looks data rich!

So to the degree that which we can extrapolate these numbers, this is probably good news for her?

Yes, it's my site.

Hard to say. If all else remains the same in the state, yes, it's good news for Heitkamp. But if Western North Dakota, which has rapidly grown since 2012, tilts even more R than in 2012, even D+17 might not be enough.

The only thing I can definitively say is that assuming the pollster is correct that the areas polled were D+14 last time, it's not consistent with a double-digit Heitkamp loss.

The fact that the (presumably D internal) pollster keeps on releasing favorable regional crosstabs instead of the topline should tell us that Heitkamp is behind statewide by something.

[cinyc]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

Well,
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.

True, but we have reason to believe the western part of the state is swinging the other way. It's not just petroleum (even though I think that has wound down some), but also Trump being more appealing than Romney to those people. I don't think Heitkamp's out but I'm worried about her.

As I said above, that the D-internal pollster isn't releasing crosstabs for Western ND or the toplines should tell you that Heitkamp is behind by something in the full sample. Probably not an unbelievable 10, but something.

[cinyc]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

Well,
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.

True, but we have reason to believe the western part of the state is swinging the other way. It's not just petroleum (even though I think that has wound down some), but also Trump being more appealing than Romney to those people. I don't think Heitkamp's out but I'm worried about her.

As I said above, that the D-internal pollster isn't releasing crosstabs for Western ND or the toplines should tell you that Heitkamp is behind by something in the full sample. Probably not an unbelievable 10, but something.

Sounds like they only did a poll of the East Cities in the 1st place. There is no "topline" or other crosstabs, because the poll was never meant to be anything more than a poll of the East Cities.

also:



This is the North Dakota 2012 to 2016 swing map. The idea that the Western Part of the state has swung heavily Republican relative to the Eastern Part of the state is false. While all Counties swung Republican here, it is clear that the colors are substantially darker in the East than they are in the West.

Nobody who has released crosstabs for Eastern rural and Eastern Cities is only polling half the state.

The two most populous counties in the east, Cass (Fargo) and Grand Forks (Grand Forks) are lighter shades of blue, while Ward (Minot) and Williams (Williston) are darker blue, and Burleigh (Bismarck) is just as blue as Grand Forks. Very few people live in the rest of the eastern counties.

The other problem is that Western North Dakota is growing a little faster than eastern.  Williston and Bismarck have each added about 11,000 residents since 2010. Minot has added 7000. Dickinson has added 4,000. Watford City has added 4,000. Mandan added 3,000.

The only places significantly growing in the eastern part of the state are Fargo (+17,000), West Fargo (+10,000) and Grand Forks (+4,000). Jamestown slightly lost population, as has much of the eastern rural area.

The 2010-17 population change map is here:
https://cinyc.carto.com/viz/a58f03b8-45fa-4f53-8e83-51da6494330b/public_map

So, not only is Western North Dakota trending more R than Eastern, but there are probably more new voters there. That means Heitkamp will have to do better than +14 in the eastern cities this time. How much better? Nobody knows.