Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2019, 01:48:56 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | | |-+  FL Governor Poll DeSantis Trailing Gillum By 2 (47-45)
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: FL Governor Poll DeSantis Trailing Gillum By 2 (47-45)  (Read 777 times)
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 01, 2018, 09:54:07 pm »

Ok yeah it is 46.7-44.7 but yeah, you get the point.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenate_September30_B83R.pdf

Tilt D race is tilt D.
Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,766
Ukraine


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 10:24:00 pm »

DeSantis is surging! FL Democrats blew it again. Red wave, etc etc

Img
Logged
Pericles
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,736
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 10:26:44 pm »

Lol the title saying DeSantis made me think DeSantis finally got a good poll before I clicked on it.
Logged
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 10:27:03 pm »

DeSantis is surging! FL Democrats blew it again. Red wave, etc etc

Img


Not even I think that lmao.
Logged
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,490
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 10:28:48 pm »

Lol the title saying DeSantis made me think DeSantis finally got a good poll before I clicked on it.

Me too. I got anxious for a second LOL
Logged
TarHeelDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,137
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 10:43:44 pm »

DeSantis is surging! FL Democrats blew it again. Red wave, etc etc

Img


Not even I think that lmao.

But you do think the race is only Tilt D, which is almost as ridiculous.
Logged
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 10:48:08 pm »

DeSantis is surging! FL Democrats blew it again. Red wave, etc etc

Img


Not even I think that lmao.

But you do think the race is only Tilt D, which is almost as ridiculous.

His overall lead is about 4 points in a tossup state, that's moe, but it's a consistent and persistent lead and dynamics look good, so Tilt D is a just fine rating. Literally everybody outside of this house of dem overconfidence has this race as little more than tilt D, max weak lean D. I mean this is the same forum where over the half of the respondents to my poll so far think Heitkamp survives and that roughly 60% of people thought O'Connor would win and 62% of people thought Ossoff would win, utter bs.
Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,766
Ukraine


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 10:50:13 pm »

But you do think the race is only Tilt D, which is almost as ridiculous.

His overall lead is about 4 points in a tossup state, that's moe, but it's a consistent and persistent lead and dynamics look good, so Tilt D is a just fine rating. Literally everybody outside of this house of dem overconfidence has this race as little more than tilt D, max weak lean D. I mean this is the same forum where over the half of the respondents to my poll so far think Heitkamp survives and that roughly 60% of people thought O'Connor would win and 62% of people thought Ossoff would win, utter bs.

Does literally everybody even use "tilt" in ratings? Also, you've invested too much confidence in the GOP. Either that or some sort of whiplash from 2016 that is skewing your ratings.
Logged
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 10:56:58 pm »

But you do think the race is only Tilt D, which is almost as ridiculous.

His overall lead is about 4 points in a tossup state, that's moe, but it's a consistent and persistent lead and dynamics look good, so Tilt D is a just fine rating. Literally everybody outside of this house of dem overconfidence has this race as little more than tilt D, max weak lean D. I mean this is the same forum where over the half of the respondents to my poll so far think Heitkamp survives and that roughly 60% of people thought O'Connor would win and 62% of people thought Ossoff would win, utter bs.

Does literally everybody even use "tilt" in ratings? Also, you've invested too much confidence in the GOP. Either that or some sort of whiplash from 2016 that is skewing your ratings.

In 2016 my electoral map guess was literally a copy of the 2012 one except with like a 6 point HRC popular vote win, I'm not getting burned like that again. Also the dem overconfidence on this forum is painfully obvious, I don't know how one can't see that. As for the tilt, I hate putting things at pure tossups so I use tilt instead mostly, because it usually is not strong enough for lean. I don't get the whole problem with the tilt rating though, I really like it.
Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,766
Ukraine


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 11:02:02 pm »

In 2016 my electoral map guess was literally a copy of the 2012 one except with like a 6 point HRC popular vote win, I'm not getting burned like that again. Also the dem overconfidence on this forum is painfully obvious, I don't know how one can't see that. As for the tilt, I hate putting things at pure tossups so I use tilt instead mostly, because it usually is not strong enough for lean. I don't get the whole problem with the tilt rating though, I really like it.

Oh I'm aware of the very high confidence users on here are placing in Democrats, I just don't think it's overconfidence except in some select cases. Considering the average user on Atlas is young, late HS - college aged, that means most people here have no good memory of a Democratic midterm wave, of which the last one was in 2006. For a while I think that tended to skew people's opinions towards Republicans because it was impossible to fathom the idea that Democrats could do well in a midterm. If Democrats really did get a D+8 or D+9 win in the House popular vote, the overconfidence you claim would turn out to be reasonable predictions.

The problem with "tilt" ratings is it gives people too much wiggle room to avoid committing to a real prediction. It's kind of like decimals on poll returns.
Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,597
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 11:07:23 pm »

#GillumUnder46.8
Logged
TX more competitive than OH
Mizzouian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,852
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 11:30:58 pm »

Iím well aware this is putting several carts before several horses, but in the event of a Trump six-year itch, itíd be pretty satisfying to see a Governor Gillum taken down Little Marco
Logged
Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,263
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2018, 11:34:02 pm »

Iím well aware this is putting several carts before several horses, but in the event of a Trump six-year itch, itíd be pretty satisfying to see a Governor Gillum taken down Little Marco
Set him up perfectly to run in 2024.
Logged
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2018, 11:43:47 pm »

In 2016 my electoral map guess was literally a copy of the 2012 one except with like a 6 point HRC popular vote win, I'm not getting burned like that again. Also the dem overconfidence on this forum is painfully obvious, I don't know how one can't see that. As for the tilt, I hate putting things at pure tossups so I use tilt instead mostly, because it usually is not strong enough for lean. I don't get the whole problem with the tilt rating though, I really like it.

Oh I'm aware of the very high confidence users on here are placing in Democrats, I just don't think it's overconfidence except in some select cases. Considering the average user on Atlas is young, late HS - college aged, that means most people here have no good memory of a Democratic midterm wave, of which the last one was in 2006. For a while I think that tended to skew people's opinions towards Republicans because it was impossible to fathom the idea that Democrats could do well in a midterm. If Democrats really did get a D+8 or D+9 win in the House popular vote, the overconfidence you claim would turn out to be reasonable predictions.

The problem with "tilt" ratings is it gives people too much wiggle room to avoid committing to a real prediction. It's kind of like decimals on poll returns.

Believe it or not though, I think that we get a near ten point mov for the house pv across the country. And I believe that if the entirety of the united states was rid of gerrymandering, and became fair and neutral maps like what went down in PA, I think we would claim near a 40 seat majority. But, the sad state of the country is that it is heavily gerrymandered, and I feel like that is an enormous hurdle to overcome, which is why I still have the house overall as tossup/tilt R. Breaking manders are hard, but I guess we could always get a surge and a surprise like we did in VA HOD last year, but I am a little more down on our chances, and while I still believe waves and national ballot margins influence races dramatically, I also believe it has less of an impact than most people here do, especially when they apply it uniformly which I really don't like to do.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
LibertarianRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,071
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 12:47:35 pm »

It seems to be tightening  a little. Then again it's Saint Pete and I doubt both Scott and DeSantis are getting 45% of the Hispanic vote.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2018, 12:56:52 pm by #TheShadowyAbyss »Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,919
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2018, 12:51:10 pm »

Wasn't he just up 1 last time this poll was taken?.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,140
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2018, 12:55:10 pm »

So, Hillary announced that she'll campaign with him to give him a "boost" and he's already dropping in support ... Roll Eyes
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
LibertarianRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,071
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2018, 12:58:32 pm »

So, Hillary announced that she'll campaign with him to give him a "boost" and he's already dropping in support ... Roll Eyes


47% isn't dropping but what ever
Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,766
Ukraine


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2018, 01:04:06 pm »

So, Hillary announced that she'll campaign with him to give him a "boost" and he's already dropping in support ... Roll Eyes

According to DKE (link), St. Pete Polls' last result was Gillum+1, conducted September 5th - 6th. So technically this would be an improvement.

But it's also such a small change that it is indistinguishable from noise.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 01:38:21 am »

So, Hillary announced that she'll campaign with him to give him a "boost" and he's already dropping in support ... Roll Eyes

According to DKE (link), St. Pete Polls' last result was Gillum+1, conducted September 5th - 6th. So technically this would be an improvement.

But it's also such a small change that it is indistinguishable from noise.

LOL at Tender. Looks like the Hillary Bounce has caused Gillum to double his lead! Smiley

But seriously Tender, not everyone is as obsessed with Hillary as you. 99% of the state probably doesn't even know about it.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines