FL Governor Poll DeSantis Trailing Gillum By 2 (47-45) (user search)
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  FL Governor Poll DeSantis Trailing Gillum By 2 (47-45) (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL Governor Poll DeSantis Trailing Gillum By 2 (47-45)  (Read 1838 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

« on: October 01, 2018, 09:54:07 PM »

Ok yeah it is 46.7-44.7 but yeah, you get the point.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenate_September30_B83R.pdf

Tilt D race is tilt D.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 10:27:03 PM »

DeSantis is surging! FL Democrats blew it again. Red wave, etc etc



Not even I think that lmao.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 10:48:08 PM »

DeSantis is surging! FL Democrats blew it again. Red wave, etc etc



Not even I think that lmao.

But you do think the race is only Tilt D, which is almost as ridiculous.

His overall lead is about 4 points in a tossup state, that's moe, but it's a consistent and persistent lead and dynamics look good, so Tilt D is a just fine rating. Literally everybody outside of this house of dem overconfidence has this race as little more than tilt D, max weak lean D. I mean this is the same forum where over the half of the respondents to my poll so far think Heitkamp survives and that roughly 60% of people thought O'Connor would win and 62% of people thought Ossoff would win, utter bs.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 10:56:58 PM »

But you do think the race is only Tilt D, which is almost as ridiculous.

His overall lead is about 4 points in a tossup state, that's moe, but it's a consistent and persistent lead and dynamics look good, so Tilt D is a just fine rating. Literally everybody outside of this house of dem overconfidence has this race as little more than tilt D, max weak lean D. I mean this is the same forum where over the half of the respondents to my poll so far think Heitkamp survives and that roughly 60% of people thought O'Connor would win and 62% of people thought Ossoff would win, utter bs.

Does literally everybody even use "tilt" in ratings? Also, you've invested too much confidence in the GOP. Either that or some sort of whiplash from 2016 that is skewing your ratings.

In 2016 my electoral map guess was literally a copy of the 2012 one except with like a 6 point HRC popular vote win, I'm not getting burned like that again. Also the dem overconfidence on this forum is painfully obvious, I don't know how one can't see that. As for the tilt, I hate putting things at pure tossups so I use tilt instead mostly, because it usually is not strong enough for lean. I don't get the whole problem with the tilt rating though, I really like it.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 11:43:47 PM »

In 2016 my electoral map guess was literally a copy of the 2012 one except with like a 6 point HRC popular vote win, I'm not getting burned like that again. Also the dem overconfidence on this forum is painfully obvious, I don't know how one can't see that. As for the tilt, I hate putting things at pure tossups so I use tilt instead mostly, because it usually is not strong enough for lean. I don't get the whole problem with the tilt rating though, I really like it.

Oh I'm aware of the very high confidence users on here are placing in Democrats, I just don't think it's overconfidence except in some select cases. Considering the average user on Atlas is young, late HS - college aged, that means most people here have no good memory of a Democratic midterm wave, of which the last one was in 2006. For a while I think that tended to skew people's opinions towards Republicans because it was impossible to fathom the idea that Democrats could do well in a midterm. If Democrats really did get a D+8 or D+9 win in the House popular vote, the overconfidence you claim would turn out to be reasonable predictions.

The problem with "tilt" ratings is it gives people too much wiggle room to avoid committing to a real prediction. It's kind of like decimals on poll returns.

Believe it or not though, I think that we get a near ten point mov for the house pv across the country. And I believe that if the entirety of the united states was rid of gerrymandering, and became fair and neutral maps like what went down in PA, I think we would claim near a 40 seat majority. But, the sad state of the country is that it is heavily gerrymandered, and I feel like that is an enormous hurdle to overcome, which is why I still have the house overall as tossup/tilt R. Breaking manders are hard, but I guess we could always get a surge and a surprise like we did in VA HOD last year, but I am a little more down on our chances, and while I still believe waves and national ballot margins influence races dramatically, I also believe it has less of an impact than most people here do, especially when they apply it uniformly which I really don't like to do.
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