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  CA-Gov - Thomas Partners Strategies: Newsom +11
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Author Topic: CA-Gov - Thomas Partners Strategies: Newsom +11  (Read 840 times)
Coastal Elitist
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« on: October 01, 2018, 03:34:06 pm »

Gavin Newsom extends his lead over John Cox in a Week 3 KFI-NBC statewide poll conducted by Thomas Partners Strategies. They are conducting a weekly tracking poll. The changes from week 2 are in parentheses.
https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=b59cb1a87e

Governor:
Newsom 53% (+8)
Cox 42% (+1)
Undecided 5%

Other races polled
Lt Gov:
Hernandez (D) 27% (+9)
Kounalakis (D) 27% (+12)
Undecided 46%

Insurance Commisioner:
Lara (D) 40% (+13)
Poizner (NPP) 45% (+11)
Undecided 15%
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 03:58:10 pm »

"Extends" his lead to only +11? Ok that tells me all I need to know about the pollster.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 04:42:18 pm »

"Extends" his lead to only +11? Ok that tells me all I need to know about the pollster.
I wrote the word extends. What's the issue? It's inline with other polls.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 07:19:36 pm »

Multiply that by at least two.
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Badger
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 07:55:38 pm »

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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 08:00:25 pm »

Lean D at best
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 08:08:32 pm »

Newson has been underwhelming so far, pretty obvious that a stronger candidate™ than Cox would have made this competitive.
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 08:09:07 pm »

Newson has been underwhelming so far, pretty obvious that a stronger candidate™ than Cox would have made this competitive.

"Competitive".
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136or142
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2018, 11:02:36 am »

New poll (I think by the same firm) has Newsom leading by just 5% (50-45%.)  I"m sure the issue is affordability. 
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Jeff Sessions Hack
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2018, 11:20:40 am »

Newsom may underperform Brown '14 by a good bit. Still obviously Safe D, but I think Travis Allen would've put up a bigger fight than Cox is.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2018, 04:36:20 pm »

Crazy how every poll of California has been garbage. We're so much smarter than these dumb pollsters because we [checks notes] spend all day reading the polls they conduct.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2018, 06:11:42 pm »

Newsom may underperform Brown '14 by a good bit. Still obviously Safe D, but I think Travis Allen would've put up a bigger fight than Cox is.

I actually think the opposite.  Allen's style is a little more polarizing in the vein of Trump, while most of the attacks on Cox would be his very conservative (for California standards) ideology.  I don't think Cox will win, but losing in the high single digits or low double digits wouldn't surprise me much at all.  In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2018, 06:21:26 pm »

In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.

Is there any race that wouldn’t have been winnable for Republicans in a Hillary miderm? Guys, even in midterms a state's partisan lean matters.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2018, 06:59:11 pm »

In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.

Is there any race that wouldn’t have been winnable for Republicans in a Hillary miderm? Guys, even in midterms a state's partisan lean matters.

I think Republicans would have had Senate pickups in the double digits-perhaps as high as 15- in a Hillary midterm.  A Hillary midterm would have been even more devastating for Democrats as this one could be for Republicans (the GOP may have made a run at 275 House seats).
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2018, 07:00:54 pm »

In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.

Is there any race that wouldn’t have been winnable for Republicans in a Hillary miderm? Guys, even in midterms a state's partisan lean matters.

I think Republicans would have had Senate pickups in the double digits-perhaps as high as 15- in a Hillary midterm.  A Hillary midterm would have been even more devastating for Democrats as this one could be for Republicans (the GOP may have made a run at 275 House seats).
Too far! Even in 2014, Reps didn't even come close to 275 house seats, and 15 Senate pickups is virtually unprecedented in US history.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2018, 07:05:24 pm »

In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.

Is there any race that wouldn’t have been winnable for Republicans in a Hillary miderm? Guys, even in midterms a state's partisan lean matters.

I think Republicans would have had Senate pickups in the double digits-perhaps as high as 15- in a Hillary midterm.  A Hillary midterm would have been even more devastating for Democrats as this one could be for Republicans (the GOP may have made a run at 275 House seats).
Too far! Even in 2014, Reps didn't even come close to 275 house seats, and 15 Senate pickups is virtually unprecedented in US history.

Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp, Tester, McCaskill, Nelson, and Brown (against Mandel) would have all been DOA.  Baldwin, Menendez, and Casey would all be underdogs.  Stabenow, Heinrich, and Klobuchar would have all been vulnerable (I don't think the whole Me Too movement happens if Hillary wins, so Franken is still a Senator).  Plus, Republicans probably won the special for Kaine's seat in 2017 and probably hold it in 2018.  That's an expected gain of 11-14 seats from 2016.
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Fremont Speaker Roblox
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2018, 07:11:50 pm »

Newsom may underperform Brown '14 by a good bit. Still obviously Safe D, but I think Travis Allen would've put up a bigger fight than Cox is.

I actually think the opposite.  Allen's style is a little more polarizing in the vein of Trump, while most of the attacks on Cox would be his very conservative (for California standards) ideology.  I don't think Cox will win, but losing in the high single digits or low double digits wouldn't surprise me much at all.  In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.

What do you think is more likely- republicans winning a statewide race in California when they couldn't even do that in 2010, when the state was less democratic, or this poll being sort of junky? Be honest with yourself.
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2018, 06:53:55 am »

Guys, if every single poll is showing Newsom only up 10-15 on Cox, maybe it's not the pollsters that are wrong but your preconceived notion that California is titanium D all the time that's wrong.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2018, 07:11:26 am »

Guys, if every single poll is showing Newsom only up 10-15 on Cox, maybe it's not the pollsters that are wrong but your preconceived notion that California is titanium D all the time that's wrong.

Polls in California almost always underestimate the Democrats. They had Obama winning by 14 when he won by 23, Clinton winning by 22 when she won by 30, Boxer and Brown struggling when they both won by double digits, etc.

And the only actual quality poll of this race, SurveyUSA, had Newsom up 29, so...
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2018, 08:55:56 am »

This poll is garbage. Newsom will win with over 60%. Dems combined already got 60% in the June primary with a much smaller electorate. No evidence why this shouldn't be the case in November with a much higher turnout.

Even in 2010, Whitman lost 54-40% to Brown while she even had a lead in some polls. She also spent tons of money, the cycle was GOP-friendly and CA less blue than it is today.

This race is nothing but safe D.
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