6th October, Latvian elections

[DavidB.]

The last vote dump (not sure if actually from the UK or Ireland) has indeed increased the gap between KPV LV, which are now well over 14%, and the New Cons; and NA has overtaken ZZS. Harmony now below 20%.

[DavidB.]

On current numbers the seat distribution would be:

Harmony 24
New Cons 16
KPV LV 15
NA 13
PAR 13
ZZS 11
New Unity 8

[Diouf]

With 16 polling places remaining

[DavidB.]

All votes are in. One seat shifted from Harmony to KPV LV.

Harmony 19.4%, 23 seats (-1)
KPV LV 14.3%, 16 seats (new)
New Conservative Party 13.6%, 16 seats (new)
PAR 12%, 13 seats (new)
National Alliance 11%, 13 seats (-4)
ZZS/Greens and Farmers 9.9%, 11 seats (-10)
New Unity 6.7%, 8 seats (-15)

[bigic]

No government without Harmony, KPV LV or NA possible

[DavidB.]

Because of the fact that KPV LV is now equal with the New Conservatives in terms of seats (and was always bigger in terms of PV), Kaimins would now have the most legitimate claim to the position of Prime Minister in any coalition not including Harmony. And Harmony isn't going to be in the coalition.

Would place my bets on KPV LV and the New Cons and then some combination of NA, ZZS and New Unity with a majority - PAR seems less likely given the profile of KPV LV and the New Cons, but could also be included instead of any of these others, who really knows.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I doubt that Latvian parties would like to have coalition with KPV LV which had some allegations about financing from Russia and ties with Moscow.

[Diouf]

LSM thinks a broad centre-right coalition is the most likely, and focus quite a lot on the role of the President:

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https://eng.lsm.lv/article/features/commentary/latvian-election-results-pose-problem-for-president.a295064/

[Diouf]

New Latvian Saeima will be slightly younger, much more female. The number of Women MPs rise from 19 to 31 in the 100-MP Saema. The average lowers from 49.1 to 47.3 years.

There are talks of a government with New Conservatives, KPV LV, For Development/For!, The National Alliance and New Unity. "The potential next prime minister, Janis Bordans of the New Conservative party (JKP) who has been taking the leading role in negotiations thus far, on Friday afternoon presented his vision of a coalition of five political forces, including a suggested division of ministerial portfolios. In his press conference Bordans emphasized that the proposed model of the five-party coalition will not be extended to include ZZS."We see that there is a unique opportunity to form a government without Harmony and the Greens and Farmers Union," Bordans said.""

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/five-party-coalition-being-discussed-with-zzs-out-in-the-cold.a295807/

[bigic]

A KPV-JKP-A/Par-NA-JV coalition is not possible - A/Par, NA and JV pulled out of coalition talks.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/three-latvian-parties-end-coalition-talks-in-blow-to-pm-s-effort

[Diouf]

Gobzems demands Saturday decision from New Conservatives

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https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/gobzems-demands-saturday-decision-from-new-conservatives.a302009/

[bigic]

The government formation process is still a mess, as far as I can see.

[Diouf]

The government formation process is still a mess, as far as I can see.

Yes, the President says Gobzems has exhausted his attempt to become PM. He will talk with the parties again, and find agreement on who could be the next candidate. Gobzems said he believed the country was heading towards new elections

[bigic]

Is a solution that includes Harmony in some way likely? Never say never...

[Diouf]

We might bizarrely end up with a government led by New Unity, the smallest party in parliament and one that got completely destroyed in the election. However, the other centre-right parties in the governing parties and their leaders have strong personal and political grudges against each other, and others seem to have very few political competences. So by process of exclusion, we are now left with New Unity's Krišjānis Kariņš, a MEP. He hopes to form a five-party government with Development/For!, JKP, KPV LV and National Alliance. He proposes that New Unity has the PM, Finance Minister and Foreign Minister post while the remaining parties share all the other posts.

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/new-unity-proposes-five-party-latvian-government.a303295/

[Diouf]

Latvia gets a new government led by Krišjānis Kariņš

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https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/latvia-gets-a-new-government-led-by-krisjanis-karins.a306967/

[IceAgeComing]

Can't see KPV LV lasting for very long based on that but we'll see - that is the perfect example of a party that historically lasts for all of one term before fragmenting.  Other than that an entirely typical Latvian government: led by a person who didn't stand in the election and by the smallest party in the Parliament and designed to exclude Harmony from government.