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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-Gray Television/Strategic Research Associates, LLC: Sen. Nelson (D) +1
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Author Topic: FL-Gray Television/Strategic Research Associates, LLC: Sen. Nelson (D) +1  (Read 709 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 02, 2018, 01:18:39 pm »

45% Nelson (D)
44% Scott (R)
11% Undecided

Quote
According to a survey of 800 likely voters in Florida conducted between September 17 -
30, 2018, 45% expressed support for incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, with 44%
expressing support for Republican challenger and current Governor Rick Scott, well within
the pollís 3.46% margin of error. Eleven percent have yet to make up their mind in the race.

Nelson is viewed favorably by 36% of likely voters and unfavorably by 38%, with 14%
expressing a neutral opinion and 12% unfamiliar. Scott is viewed favorably by 42% of likely
voters and unfavorably by 38%, with 11% expressing a neutral opinion and 10% unfamiliar.

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_FL_September_Survey.pdf
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 01:51:34 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2018, 01:52:39 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

They see an electorate 7% more Republican than the 2016 one.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2018, 02:00:39 pm »

Definitely seems like Nelson has the edge right now, though not a particularly large one.
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2018, 02:01:40 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

That's actually not true. The same Pollster has Manchin up 8 in West Virginia despite Trump having a 62% JA in WV.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2018, 02:04:43 pm »

Definitely seems like Nelson has the edge right now, though not a particularly large one.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2018, 02:05:13 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

That's actually not true. The same Pollster has Manchin up 8 in West Virginia despite Trump having a 62% JA in WV.


What was the electorate like? Could than mean that Manchin is up even more?
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2018, 02:10:38 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

That's actually not true. The same Pollster has Manchin up 8 in West Virginia despite Trump having a 62% JA in WV.

Here is the Poll
https://www.wjhg.com/content/news/494935621.html
Noticeable: Voters by a 45/32 margin say Kavernaugh should be confirmed as SCOTUS Justice.
What was the electorate like? Could than mean that Manchin is up even more?
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2018, 02:11:09 pm »

The old dog is still hanging on. Keep pushing Bill
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2018, 04:26:46 pm »

The enthusiasm question is stupid.  It asks whether your enthusiasm to vote is more, the same, or less.

I would answer the same.  What the question fails to discern is that I am always enthusiastic about voting.   Even in school board elections.
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UWS
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2018, 04:45:35 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

They see an electorate 7% more Republican than the 2016 one.

If the Florida electorate is 7 % more Republican than in 2016, when the Republicans won Florida both in the presidential level (by almost 2 percentage points) and in the senatorial level with Marco Rubio (by 8 percentage points), then it's actually good news for the Republicans because with an electorate that is almost 10 % more Republican in Florida it increases Rick Scott's chances of victory there.
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Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2018, 04:47:47 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

They see an electorate 7% more Republican than the 2016 one.

If the Florida electorate is 7 % more Republican than in 2016, when the Republicans won Florida both in the presidential level and in the senatorial level with Marco Rubio, then it's actually good news for the Republicans because with an electorate that is almost 10 % more Republican in Florida it increases Rick Scott's chances of victory there.
Thatís definitely not the takeaway.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2018, 04:50:19 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

They see an electorate 7% more Republican than the 2016 one.

If the Florida electorate is 7 % more Republican than in 2016, when the Republicans won Florida both in the presidential level (by almost 2 percentage points) and in the senatorial level with Marco Rubio (by 8 percentage points), then it's actually good news for the Republicans because with an electorate that is almost 10 % more Republican in Florida it increases Rick Scott's chances of victory there.

Or, the more likely answer, the poll completely oversampled Rs, and this is not representative of the actual electorate at all.

Another good takeaway is that Nelson and Gillum are still up in such a skewed sample, which is the best news that Ds could have gotten for the race.
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marty
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 05:00:48 pm »

Honest question

Why is trumpís approval in Florida relatively.....decent?

Compared to national polling, it doesnít make sense
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 05:30:27 pm »

Honest question

Why is trumpís approval in Florida relatively.....decent?

Compared to national polling, it doesnít make sense
It would be decent if this was a state Trump won by 8 points.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2018, 11:46:47 pm »

Republicans will win.  They are pissed.  I am pissed.  It is imperative that we stop the racist, sexist Democrats.  It's over now. 
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