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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  IL-PSPPI/SIUC: Pritzker (D) +22
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Author Topic: IL-PSPPI/SIUC: Pritzker (D) +22  (Read 773 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 02, 2018, 01:33:15 pm »

Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale:

49% Pritzker (D)
27% Rauner (R-Inc.)
  4% McCann (C)
  4% Jackson (L)
17% Undecided

Quote
In the other high-profile statewide race for a constitutional office, Attorney General, State Senator Kwame Raoul held a 36 percent to 26 percent lead over Champaign attorney Erika Harold with 39 percent undecided.

---

Quote
The poll was conducted September 24-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage point for the entire sample. The poll covered a sample of 1,001 registered voters. The election analysis presented here is based on 715 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is 3.7 percentage points.

https://capitolfax.com/2018/10/02/simon-poll-pritzker-leads-by-22-points-raoul-up-by-10-dems-more-enthusiastic
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IA IS Safe R
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 01:33:53 pm »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2018, 01:36:36 pm »

It's going to be a Kirking.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2018, 01:38:54 pm »

Pritzker will be in the Governor's mansion ripping out toilets in no time Smile
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2018, 01:51:26 pm »

A well-deserved Blanching, and exactly the governor Illinois deserves!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2018, 01:54:38 pm »

Toss-up/Lean R, obviously.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2018, 03:43:24 pm »

A well-deserved Blanching, and exactly the governor Illinois deserves!

Forgetting your strange hatred of Bruce Rauner, the end of the sentence is certainly correct.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2018, 04:52:47 pm »

Sheesh, will we have to start saying "Rauner'd" if he loses by more than Blanche? I doubt that he will, but still, this is downright humiliating. And to be losing this much to Johann Barnum, no less.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2018, 05:04:53 pm »

Haha NotMadigan is gonna have a terrible election evening, Imma tell you my bold prediction that at this rate Rauner is even more likely to lose than Manchin.
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IA IS Safe R
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2018, 05:29:29 pm »

Haha NotMadigan is gonna have a terrible election evening, Imma tell you my bold prediction that at this rate Rauner is even more likely to lose than Manchin.
Manchin isn't losing, and under no circumstances would he be worse off then Rauner.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2018, 08:42:43 pm »

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Pritzker led in Chicago by 65 percent to 22 percent and the five suburban Collar Counties by 53 percent to 23 percent. Pritzker and Rauner were essentially tied downstate with Pritzker at 35 percent and Rauner at 34 percent. Pritzker enjoyed an 81 percent to 6 percent lead among Democrats while Rauner took a 67 percent to 6 percent lead among Republican voters. McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters while Jackson garnered 6 percent among Republicans.

YES YES YES! Lets party now!
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2018, 08:45:24 pm »

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Pritzker led in Chicago by 65 percent to 22 percent and the five suburban Collar Counties by 53 percent to 23 percent. Pritzker and Rauner were essentially tied downstate with Pritzker at 35 percent and Rauner at 34 percent. Pritzker enjoyed an 81 percent to 6 percent lead among Democrats while Rauner took a 67 percent to 6 percent lead among Republican voters. McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters while Jackson garnered 6 percent among Republicans.

YES YES YES! Lets party now!

It could be a real bloodbath for state Senate/House Republicans if those areas are willing to buck Rauner by such a large margin.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2018, 08:48:49 pm »

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Pritzker led in Chicago by 65 percent to 22 percent and the five suburban Collar Counties by 53 percent to 23 percent. Pritzker and Rauner were essentially tied downstate with Pritzker at 35 percent and Rauner at 34 percent. Pritzker enjoyed an 81 percent to 6 percent lead among Democrats while Rauner took a 67 percent to 6 percent lead among Republican voters. McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters while Jackson garnered 6 percent among Republicans.

YES YES YES! Lets party now!

It could be a real bloodbath for state Senate/House Republicans if those areas are willing to buck Rauner by such a large margin.

Yes! and a rather inept candidate will probably defeat the Republican in IL-06.

I think DuPage goes to Rauner by a thin margin. It is just too Republican down ballot. However Pritzkers leads in Lake and Will counties will be hysterical.

IL-14 is off the radar but its vulnerable now for the GOP.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 08:53:11 pm »

Yes! and a rather inept candidate will probably defeat the Republican in IL-06.

I think DuPage goes to Rauner by a thin margin. It is just too Republican down ballot. However Pritzkers leads in Lake and Will counties will be hysterical.

IL-14 is off the radar but its vulnerable now for the GOP.

Illinois Republicans have arguably had it really easy during the Obama years. They did really well in the state House/Senate and Congressional popular vote shares, almost winning the state house PV in 2014 and keeping it within single digits for the rest of the years (including 2012 and 2016). But I'd be willing to bet the Democratic vote share for legislative races will begin to realign with presidential numbers, at least statewide. That means results more like 2008 (D+17.5) rather than 2016 (D+7.9). Probably more actual seats too, considering what the map looks like right now.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 08:55:19 pm »

Quote
Pritzker led in Chicago by 65 percent to 22 percent and the five suburban Collar Counties by 53 percent to 23 percent. Pritzker and Rauner were essentially tied downstate with Pritzker at 35 percent and Rauner at 34 percent. Pritzker enjoyed an 81 percent to 6 percent lead among Democrats while Rauner took a 67 percent to 6 percent lead among Republican voters. McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters while Jackson garnered 6 percent among Republicans.

YES YES YES! Lets party now!

I'm guessing we shouldn't tell RINO Tom about this, right, IceSpear?
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Jimmie
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2018, 09:08:33 pm »

Yes! and a rather inept candidate will probably defeat the Republican in IL-06.

I think DuPage goes to Rauner by a thin margin. It is just too Republican down ballot. However Pritzkers leads in Lake and Will counties will be hysterical.

IL-14 is off the radar but its vulnerable now for the GOP.

Illinois Republicans have arguably had it really easy during the Obama years. They did really well in the state House/Senate and Congressional popular vote shares, almost winning the state house PV in 2014 and keeping it within single digits for the rest of the years (including 2012 and 2016). But I'd be willing to bet the Democratic vote share for legislative races will begin to realign with presidential numbers, at least statewide. That means results more like 2008 (D+17.5) rather than 2016 (D+7.9). Probably more actual seats too, considering what the map looks like right now.

Exactly! Illinois is in the midwest so is obviously sensitive to waves and the GOP overperformed in 2010 and 2014 there. But the did win those races.. the Democrats failed at them.

Also downstate Illinois is not near as Republican as outstate Missouri. Just cross the Misssisippi River you see a lot more support for Democrats on the Illinois boonies than the Missouri boonies.

In 2018 you have anti Trump trends in the suburbs and downstate behaving more like the upper midwest than the south causing these Democratic landslides.

It also says something that both Il-Treasurer and Il-Comptroller have been ranked by RRH as solid Democratic. They were hard fought in 2014 and barely won by Democrats in 2016 special election.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2018, 10:04:14 pm »

Will Kelly win in IL-12?
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2018, 10:14:02 pm »

Will Kelly win in IL-12?


No.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 01:54:40 am »

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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 01:55:44 am »

Sheesh, will we have to start saying "Rauner'd" if he loses by more than Blanche? I doubt that he will, but still, this is downright humiliating. And to be losing this much to Johann Barnum, no less.

Nothing will ever top Blanche as a verb.

And as for the Collar Counties, yes, you guessed right. Wink
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