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  FL-GOV: Gillum + 1 (Mason-Dixon)
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Author Topic: FL-GOV: Gillum + 1 (Mason-Dixon)  (Read 1687 times)
2016
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« on: October 02, 2018, 06:46:34 pm »

Gillum 45
DeSantis 44
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/02/kavanaugh-effect-gillum-clings-to-1-point-lead-over-desantis-636720
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-36ec-d20d-a57f-b6fc49a10002

Party ID

D 38
R 37
I 25

Mason-Dixon Polling Director Brad Coker said typically more GOP Voters Vote in Midterms than D's.

That's suggesting to me that all the other Polls who had Gillum between 3-6 Points have been oversampling Democrats.
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 08:03:02 pm »

Certainly interesting. Tilt D, but this (just like the Senate race) isnít over yet.

No Senate numbers?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2018, 08:05:16 pm »

Gillum 45
DeSantis 44
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/02/kavanaugh-effect-gillum-clings-to-1-point-lead-over-desantis-636720
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-36ec-d20d-a57f-b6fc49a10002

Party ID

D 38
R 37
I 25

Mason-Dixon Polling Director Brad Coker said typically more GOP Voters Vote in Midterms than D's.

That's suggesting to me that all the other Polls who had Gillum between 3-6 Points have been oversampling Democrats.


Yeah, Im pretty sure every single pollster that has polled the state has been wrong, while Mason has been correct. Really plausible.

Just sounds like they admitted to oversampling Rs.
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Virginia C
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2018, 08:09:01 pm »

[...]

Mason-Dixon Polling Director Brad Coker said typically more GOP Voters Vote in Midterms than D's.

That's suggesting to me that all the other Polls who had Gillum between 3-6 Points have been oversampling Democrats.

Not necessarily. Rasmussen's poll that showed Gillum+6 had a 35R - 31D sample. That's just one example too.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2018, 08:13:26 pm »

Why does Florida always have to be so weird. Nelson finally starts pulling ahead, yet Gillum ends up in a tighter race. I don't know if I buy it. But then again, this is Florida that we're talking about.
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Corbyn is a Strasserist
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2018, 08:17:22 pm »

Gillum's been riding a month of good press following a shock win and a whooooooooole lot of gross unforced errors by his opponent. As the campaign gets down to the nitty-gritty, it was always likely to narrow. I'd say this is still tilt/lean D right now, but like the Senate race it'll come down to turnout.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2018, 08:17:52 pm »

So I guess we are back to the "Florida is tough to poll" stage?

What's Mason-Dixon's overall performance in Florida?

I seemed to recall that they tend to have a pretty decent record in polling Florida....

If so, then....

*** Back to waiting impatiently for the next wave of polls from Florida coming later this week ***
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Virginia C
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2018, 08:19:18 pm »

Why does Florida always have to be so weird. Nelson finally starts pulling ahead, yet Gillum ends up in a tighter race. I don't know if I buy it. But then again, this is Florida that we're talking about.

I'm not entirely sure it's actually tightening. We haven't had a Mason-Dixon poll of this race yet, so there is nothing to compare to it. And the St Pete poll we had today - like I posted, there was no substantial change from their last poll. It went down 1 point, which is hardly anything.

Meanwhile, PPP polled this in late August and got D+5, and now it's D+4. Cherry Communications had D+4 in early September and that expanded to D+6 a week ago. If anything, the race hasn't really changed. It's just gotten some new polls that may overestimate Republicans a bit. I would wait for some of the better-quality pollsters who already recently polled the race (like Marist) to release more polls before drawing conclusions.

(or maybe it has changed, but it's impossible to know that for sure right now)
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2018, 08:56:51 pm »

Can we please stop using the term "oversample" to refer to a sample that is too heavy on a specific demographic? "Oversampling" refers to a deliberate - any very beneficial - methodological choice.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2018, 10:24:36 pm »

I'd like to see their Senate numbers. Still, as I said, this is perfectly consistent with Gillum having a mid-single-digit lead.
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Georgia Is A Swing State
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 12:02:04 am »

This is still Lean D. There is no reason for the undecideds to break to DeSantis.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2018, 01:25:23 am »

The polls show this race tightening. As of now it's hard to say if it's just random noise, Gillum's post primary bounce deflating, the Kavanaugh stuff boosting the GOP, DeSantis's gaffes finally falling into the background, or some combination of the above. Time will tell I guess.

Anyway, I think Atlas overcorrected and went from underestimating Dem chances here to overestimating them, lol. Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man become governor of Florida without a fight.
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2018, 10:00:40 am »

The polls show this race tightening. As of now it's hard to say if it's just random noise, Gillum's post primary bounce deflating, the Kavanaugh stuff boosting the GOP, DeSantis's gaffes finally falling into the background, or some combination of the above. Time will tell I guess.

Anyway, I think Atlas overcorrected and went from underestimating Dem chances here to overestimating them, lol. Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man become governor of Florida without a fight.

I think that is well put. Florida is too polerized and Gillum are implementing the same Strategy that Clinton did in 2016 by running up the margin in the big Democratic Counties while abandoning rual Voters. Gillum is going to get "killed" in the Exurbs around Tampa/St. Pete just like Trump did with Hillary.

Exit Poll 2006
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/FL/G/00/epolls.0.html

Party ID
R 40
D 36
I 24

2006 was a good year for D's yet the FL Exit Poll showed more Republicans voted than Democrats.

Exit Poll 2014
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/FL/governor/#exit-polls

Party ID
R 35
I 33
D 31

I call what Q-Pac and Marist are doing is absolutely hyperbolic by suggesting that the Florida Electorate in a MidTerm will be 4-5 Points more Democratic. That is just crap big time.

Unless the D's have fixed their Turnout Problem they had in 2010 & 2014 a lot of the Races will be a lot tighter and R's may actually win some.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2018, 11:35:21 am »

The polls show this race tightening. As of now it's hard to say if it's just random noise, Gillum's post primary bounce deflating, the Kavanaugh stuff boosting the GOP, DeSantis's gaffes finally falling into the background, or some combination of the above. Time will tell I guess.

Anyway, I think Atlas overcorrected and went from underestimating Dem chances here to overestimating them, lol. Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man become governor of Florida without a fight.
100% agreed. atlas has been acting as if gillium was already guaranteed a double digit landslide. its florida for crying out loud, its nearly always going to be close
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2018, 11:42:44 am »

... Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man Democratbecome governor of Florida without a fight.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2018, 11:43:29 am »
« Edited: October 03, 2018, 12:40:30 pm by Zaybay »

The polls show this race tightening. As of now it's hard to say if it's just random noise, Gillum's post primary bounce deflating, the Kavanaugh stuff boosting the GOP, DeSantis's gaffes finally falling into the background, or some combination of the above. Time will tell I guess.

Anyway, I think Atlas overcorrected and went from underestimating Dem chances here to overestimating them, lol. Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man become governor of Florida without a fight.
100% agreed. atlas has been acting as if gillium was already guaranteed a double digit landslide. its florida for crying out loud, its nearly always going to be close

Florida has only had two close statewide elections from 2000-2018. The two being Rick Scott's campaigns. Usually, Dems and Reps win FL with large margins.


Anyway, it really is Atlas to take 1 poll and treating it as gospel. Seriously, we have a multitude of polls and averages to work off of here, and now people are overanalyzing one poll that gives a lackluster result. That is appropriate for ND and house races, not for FL.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2018, 04:49:50 pm »

... Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man Democratbecome governor of Florida without a fight.

Why are you quoting a liberal Democrat RINO tyrant who caused massive bloodshed across the Motherland in your sig?
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2018, 04:51:15 pm »

This is still Lean D. There is no reason for the undecideds to break to DeSantis.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 04:53:20 pm »

Gillum will win. Racist deplorable republikkkans will be outvoted by record African American turnout.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 05:09:57 pm »

The polls show this race tightening. As of now it's hard to say if it's just random noise, Gillum's post primary bounce deflating, the Kavanaugh stuff boosting the GOP, DeSantis's gaffes finally falling into the background, or some combination of the above. Time will tell I guess.

Anyway, I think Atlas overcorrected and went from underestimating Dem chances here to overestimating them, lol. Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man become governor of Florida without a fight.
100% agreed. atlas has been acting as if gillium was already guaranteed a double digit landslide. its florida for crying out loud, its nearly always going to be close

Florida has only had two close statewide elections from 2000-2018. The two being Rick Scott's campaigns. Usually, Dems and Reps win FL with large margins.


Anyway, it really is Atlas to take 1 poll and treating it as gospel. Seriously, we have a multitude of polls and averages to work off of here, and now people are overanalyzing one poll that gives a lackluster result. That is appropriate for ND and house races, not for FL.

Who's treating it as gospel? The aggregate of polls has it tightening.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2018, 12:09:30 pm »

Mason-dixon is one of the pollsters that had romney leading by big margins in the final week in FL. To call them more credible than other pollsters in the state would be nonsense.
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InvisibleTrump
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2018, 12:19:36 pm »

Gillum will win. Racist deplorable republikkkans will be outvoted by record African American turnout.
Lol blacks don't vote in midterms, even when someone like Perry Thurston is on the ballot. Ask Governor Crist.
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2016
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2018, 12:30:18 pm »

DeSantis also gave Gillum pretty much a free pass in the month of September with no Attack Ads, etc.

Gillum peaked to early.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2018, 12:52:18 pm »

Gillum will win. Racist deplorable republikkkans will be outvoted by record African American turnout.
Lol blacks don't vote in midterms, even when someone like Perry Thurston is on the ballot. Ask Governor Crist.

I hope your surprised come next month. Democrats are working hard down here.
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2016
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2018, 01:02:27 pm »

Gillum will win. Racist deplorable republikkkans will be outvoted by record African American turnout.
Lol blacks don't vote in midterms, even when someone like Perry Thurston is on the ballot. Ask Governor Crist.

I hope your surprised come next month. Democrats are working hard down here.

Just doing Turnout in Southeast FL won't help him win the State. He should ask Hillary Clinton. She got over 65% in Miami-Dade and still lost the State. Gillum is already abandoning Floridas Rural Voters and that will come back to haunt him.
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