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  NJ-FDU: Menendez +6
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Author Topic: NJ-FDU: Menendez +6  (Read 1059 times)
Senator ON Progressive
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« on: October 03, 2018, 06:28:20 am »

Bob Menendez (D-inc) 43
Bob Hugin (R) 37

https://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2018/181003/
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 06:37:50 am »

Yeah, Menendez will probably win by high single digits. A pathetic performance for a New Jersey Democrat in this kind of year.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 06:38:26 am »

There are a lot of undecided Democrats which is probably good new for Menendez.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 06:57:26 am »

Fairleigh Dickinson isn't a bad pollster, but a poll taken a month before the election with 18% undecideds... yikes. Luckily for Menendez, most of them will probably end up voting for him.
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WB said Trans Rights
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 07:13:12 am »

Id say this is about where the race is right now. I think the majority of those undecideds are going to menendez in the end. These last few polls are making me move this from Very likely D to Likely D though
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 07:21:19 am »

When is Atlas going to accept that Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans by the media and especially by the voters? Scandals and "candidate quality" only matter for Democrats, except in extreme Roy Moore situations (and even then, there's no way a Democratic version of Moore would get 48% of the vote in any state.) Look at Menendez struggling in a deep blue state in a favorable pro Democratic environment due to a scandal from years ago that he was acquitted for. Now compare it to Duncan Hunter, who is on cruise control despite literally being indicted like a month ago for pretending he spent his campaign slush fund on wounded vets then blamed his wife for it. And this is despite him having the wind in his face rather than at his back like Menendez does.
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The Saint
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 07:23:34 am »

Lesser-known/used university polls aren't always the best, but this margin, plus or minus a few points, seems good.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 07:31:00 am »

Lesser-known/used university polls aren't always the best, but this margin, plus or minus a few points, seems good.

Fairleigh Dickinson is A-rated on 538 with no mean bias.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2018, 08:11:05 am »

When is Atlas going to accept that Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans by the media and especially by the voters? Scandals and "candidate quality" only matter for Democrats, except in extreme Roy Moore situations (and even then, there's no way a Democratic version of Moore would get 48% of the vote in any state.) Look at Menendez struggling in a deep blue state in a favorable pro Democratic environment due to a scandal from years ago that he was acquitted for. Now compare it to Duncan Hunter, who is on cruise control despite literally being indicted like a month ago for pretending he spent his campaign slush fund on wounded vets then blamed his wife for it. And this is despite him having the wind in his face rather than at his back like Menendez does.

Why is it that when you pick a topic to focus with, you end up being extremely annoying or obnoxious about it? If what you're saying were true, Menendez would be losing. He's not. And few here believe he will. But right, let's of course obviate junk GOP candidates like Sarron Angle or Richard Mourdock. Those didn't exist.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2018, 08:21:29 am »

When is Atlas going to accept that Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans by the media and especially by the voters? Scandals and "candidate quality" only matter for Democrats, except in extreme Roy Moore situations (and even then, there's no way a Democratic version of Moore would get 48% of the vote in any state.) Look at Menendez struggling in a deep blue state in a favorable pro Democratic environment due to a scandal from years ago that he was acquitted for. Now compare it to Duncan Hunter, who is on cruise control despite literally being indicted like a month ago for pretending he spent his campaign slush fund on wounded vets then blamed his wife for it. And this is despite him having the wind in his face rather than at his back like Menendez does.

Why is it that when you pick a topic to focus with, you end up being extremely annoying or obnoxious about it? If what you're saying were true, Menendez would be losing. He's not. And few here believe he will. But right, let's of course obviate junk GOP candidates like Sarron Angle or Richard Mourdock. Those didn't exist.

There's a reason why the only counterexamples are either a) from 6+ years ago or b) a literal pedophile. Trump shifted the paradigm and Republicans no longer care about anything. They just dismiss any scandal, no matter how factual or heinous, as a "rigged witch hunt."

"If what you're saying is true, Menendez would be losing?" How so? Menendez is doing at minimum ~10 points worse than you'd expect him to be doing, potentially even more considering the state and the political environment. Lots of people here and elsewhere expected Scott Taylor, Duncan Hunter, etc. to be hurt from their scandals and they barely made a dent, if even that. Oh, and let's not forget Kevin Cramer's "Akin comments." Clearly they're taking a major toll on him right now. Because Akin and Mourdock are very relevant to the present day! Roll Eyes
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 08:24:54 am »

Menendez will Likely have an underwhelming and weak win
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2018, 08:26:42 am »

Quinnipiac is gonna have a poll out today here as well.
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brand_allen
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2018, 10:09:06 am »

Menendez's favorability rating isn't doing him any favors in NJ.

He's at -18 in this poll, while his challenger is at +6.

He was at -24 in the Stockton poll, while his challenger was at +13.

Seems like a decent recipe for a surprise loss.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2018, 10:25:15 am »

When is Atlas going to accept that Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans by the media and especially by the voters? Scandals and "candidate quality" only matter for Democrats, except in extreme Roy Moore situations (and even then, there's no way a Democratic version of Moore would get 48% of the vote in any state.) Look at Menendez struggling in a deep blue state in a favorable pro Democratic environment due to a scandal from years ago that he was acquitted for. Now compare it to Duncan Hunter, who is on cruise control despite literally being indicted like a month ago for pretending he spent his campaign slush fund on wounded vets then blamed his wife for it. And this is despite him having the wind in his face rather than at his back like Menendez does.

When will IceSpear understand Bob Menendez isn't running against Duncan Hunter? If Menendez didn't have a quality challenger, he'd also be up double-digits. Hugin is one of the better challengers this cycle, even if only by funding alone.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2018, 10:32:28 am »

I actually think Hugin will win this one.
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2018, 11:07:40 am »

I actually think Hugin will win this one.

Why? Serious question. Iirc, undecideds break overwhelmingly Democratic in New Jersey, and I think Democrats tend to under poll compared to their actual results somewhat, though not to the same extent as say Nevada.

Personally, I am possibly by the skin of my teeth supporting menendez's reelection for the same reason that George will argue in his editorial calling for the Democrats to take over Congress as a desperately desperately needed restraint on Trump. That I knew nothing about his opponent. Frankly, if I felt confident of Democrats otherwise picking up 52 seats, I could live with Menendez going down. I would rather II as a second alternative indicted in forced to resign ASAP.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2018, 11:13:16 am »

Menendez's favorability rating isn't doing him any favors in NJ.

He's at -18 in this poll, while his challenger is at +6.

He was at -24 in the Stockton poll, while his challenger was at +13.

Seems like a decent recipe for a surprise loss.

Senator Greg Orman agrees with you.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2018, 11:37:45 am »

Menendez would probably lose, but Menendez (D) is safe no matter what he does.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 05:51:30 pm »

Menendez would probably lose, but Menendez (D) is safe no matter what he does.

What if he drops out?
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 06:26:20 pm »

When is Atlas going to accept that Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans by the media and especially by the voters? Scandals and "candidate quality" only matter for Democrats, except in extreme Roy Moore situations (and even then, there's no way a Democratic version of Moore would get 48% of the vote in any state.) Look at Menendez struggling in a deep blue state in a favorable pro Democratic environment due to a scandal from years ago that he was acquitted for. Now compare it to Duncan Hunter, who is on cruise control despite literally being indicted like a month ago for pretending he spent his campaign slush fund on wounded vets then blamed his wife for it. And this is despite him having the wind in his face rather than at his back like Menendez does.

He wasn't acquitted, it was a hung jury. The difference matters, it was reported, and people know the difference. And then the Senate ethics committee (which is evenly divided between the parties) publicly admonished him.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2018, 06:35:03 pm »

When is Atlas going to accept that Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans by the media and especially by the voters? Scandals and "candidate quality" only matter for Democrats, except in extreme Roy Moore situations (and even then, there's no way a Democratic version of Moore would get 48% of the vote in any state.) Look at Menendez struggling in a deep blue state in a favorable pro Democratic environment due to a scandal from years ago that he was acquitted for. Now compare it to Duncan Hunter, who is on cruise control despite literally being indicted like a month ago for pretending he spent his campaign slush fund on wounded vets then blamed his wife for it. And this is despite him having the wind in his face rather than at his back like Menendez does.

He wasn't acquitted, it was a hung jury. The difference matters, it was reported, and people know the difference. And then the Senate ethics committee (which is evenly divided between the parties) publicly admonished him.

LMAO. I doubt most Americans could even define the word "acquitted."
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2018, 07:08:12 pm »

*Yawn* can we stop bed-wetting over this race? Menendez sucks, but New Jersey voters are used to sucky politicians. And the Democrats among them, like myself, are too pissed off at the GOP at this point in time (or even moreso than usual) to even want to give pseudo-moderate Bob Hugin a chance.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2018, 07:15:37 pm »

When is Atlas going to accept that Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans by the media and especially by the voters? Scandals and "candidate quality" only matter for Democrats, except in extreme Roy Moore situations (and even then, there's no way a Democratic version of Moore would get 48% of the vote in any state.) Look at Menendez struggling in a deep blue state in a favorable pro Democratic environment due to a scandal from years ago that he was acquitted for. Now compare it to Duncan Hunter, who is on cruise control despite literally being indicted like a month ago for pretending he spent his campaign slush fund on wounded vets then blamed his wife for it. And this is despite him having the wind in his face rather than at his back like Menendez does.

He wasn't acquitted, it was a hung jury. The difference matters, it was reported, and people know the difference. And then the Senate ethics committee (which is evenly divided between the parties) publicly admonished him.

LMAO. I doubt most Americans could even define the word "acquitted."

I am legitimately humored by your ridiculing of dumb voters, but you do exaggerate the state of things, especially with respect to this race. Menendez will win, don't get me wrong, but only because it's 2018 and not 2014.
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