NJ-Vox Pop: Menendez +4

[Senator Incitatus]

https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NJ-Statewide-Topline-Results-Oct-2018.pdf

Notably, this poll does not include undecideds. The sample is only 62% white and 26% Republican ID. Vox Populi are B-grade pollsters with a +0.2 adjusted Republican bias according to 538.

Menendez 52 – Hugin 48

Highlights:
Menendez +1 with committed voters (36-35)
Menendez +3 among leaners (16-13)

Question	For	Against	OTHER	NET
Hugin Approval	31	22	46	+9
Menendez Approval	24	49	27	-29
Trump Approval	38	58	4	-20
Impeachment	52	49	–	+3
Kavanaugh Confirm	38	47	14	-9

Democrats lead by 18 on the generic ballot and 12 on economic issues.

[Senator Incitatus]

This is not great.

I'm expecting the Q-poll later to complete the current round of low-single digit leads for Menendez, but I can't say I'm not holding out hope that he's trailing in that one.

This race is now solidly Lean D. Hoping they debate.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seeing the dems pick up 4 out of 5 rep house seats while Menendez loses would be a sight to behold.

I don't see both happening, but it would be something. I think it's more likely Hugin carries at least one of Lance's or MacArthur's bleeding corpses across the finish line, even if he doesn't win himself. (This also applies to Webber, but I don't consider his campaign a bleeding corpse.)

[Senator Incitatus]

Not surprising. I see tons of Hugin and Gottheimer signs in Bergen, but haven't seen a single Menendez sign, Hugin definitely has the momentum going for him, and has closed in on Menendez, but I still expect Menendez to eek it out due to the large registration advantage he has, with Dems outnumbering Republicans by 900,000.

Signs mean very little, but I've anecdotally seen two Menendez signs in the entire state. And one is in front of my assemblyman's house.