ND - Cramer +12 (FOX)

[Virginiá]

The reason I, and nearly all Republicans, both politicians and regular citizens, are so vehemently in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation is that if his nomination is withdrawn, it sends a message that any future Supreme Court nominee (or really any official) can be taken down and have their lives ruined by unsubstantiated claims. That would be a travesty for justice, the rule of law, our politics, and would only encourage more of this* in the future.

* - A political side using unsubstantiated allegations as a political weapon to sink an otherwise supremely qualified person. I'm not saying that Ford may not have been, at some point, a victim of sexual assault.

Alright, well, fair enough.

But I still think Republicans are taking for granted the institutions to which this country depends on. Watergate, 2008 and a plethora of events between and after have seriously rattled the public's faith in our system, and at some point, partisan objectives need to take a backseat to what is best for the country. If that means someone like Kavanaugh has to settle for a lowly appellate court seat instead, it shouldn't be considered the end of the world.

Until then, we can just keep taking all of this for granted I suppose.

[2016]

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

I mean, unless you think Democrats recruited Ford to accuse Kavanaugh, it's not really fair to put it all on them. It's not our fault you guys picked someone with a history of heavy drinking and partying in HS/college who seemed to engage in questionable behavior with women.

And as dismayed as Republicans may be, there is an equally-if-not-bigger group of Democrats who for the life of them can't understand why you guys are clinging to Kavanaugh as if he's the only possible judge for the job, and would risk undermining the public's trust and confidence in the Supreme Court instead of just picking someone else and ramming through their confirmation before January. To me at least, it shows a stunning level of recklessness, which unfortunately isn't exactly new for the GOP, who have been undermining confidence in our elections almost every cycle, with fake claims of fraud, particularly in close elections (re: North Carolina).

It's nice that you don't agree with your party, truly, but the same can't be said for the vast majority of your partisan compatriots.

The reason I, and nearly all Republicans, both politicians and regular citizens, are so vehemently in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation is that if his nomination is withdrawn, it sends a message that any future Supreme Court nominee (or really any official) can be taken down and have their lives ruined by unsubstantiated claims. That would be a travesty for justice, the rule of law, our politics, and would only encourage more of this* in the future.

* - A political side using unsubstantiated allegations as a political weapon to sink an otherwise supremely qualified person. I'm not saying that Ford may not have been, at some point, a victim of sexual assault.

I'm very concerned what happens if they don't confirm him so yes I'm with you.

[IceSpear]

Hackery never ceases to amaze. This poll is junk, and should be thrown away.

Were you trying to be ironic?

No, he is unfortunately dead serious.

[Pollster]

Most North Dakota polls (including internals and those from prominent firms) should be treated with a grain of salt. The state has no voter registration and therefore no reliable voter file. Pollsters have no idea who they are interviewing (with regards to vote history, modeled turnout probability, and other voter file data that pollsters use to draw samples). The state really is a political consultant's nightmare.

That being said, even a faulty voter file (which was almost certainly used for this poll) would not cause a 12 point deficit. Heitkamp is probably trailing, though 12 points is probably not the truth.

[Politician]

Most North Dakota polls (including internals and those from prominent firms) should be treated with a grain of salt. The state has no voter registration and therefore no reliable voter file. Pollsters have no idea who they are interviewing (with regards to vote history, modeled turnout probability, and other voter file data that pollsters use to draw samples). The state really is a political consultant's nightmare.

That being said, even a faulty voter file (which was almost certainly used for this poll) would not cause a 12 point deficit. Heitkamp is probably trailing, though 12 points is probably not the truth.

FINALLY SOME COMMON SENSE!

[SnowLabrador]

I'm changing North Dakota from Lean to Likely R.

[Predictor]

I'm changing North Dakota from Lean to Likely R.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Uh, this is a Fox News poll.

[pppolitics]

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

He lied under oath about Rimarez’s story.

He said that that he didn’t hear about it until The New Yorker publish it, when he was already maneuvering behind the scene to to undercut the story.

Are you saying that you would support someone that lied under oath to be on the Supreme Court?

[MycroftCZ]

Obviously this result sucks but polling North Dakota is hard without voter registration. She’s down but not by double digits and NOT by 12 points. This poll also has her with a negative approval ratings, which is totally wrong.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If she votes against Kavanaugh, it will help her.

[RI]

Pharos Research, of all groups, nailed the race twice in 2012, so ND can't be that hard to poll.

[IceSpear]

If she votes against Kavanaugh, it will help her.

[BudgieForce]

This is a painful poll. It'll be a darn shame if Heitkamp loses, shes a pretty good senator.

[Pyro]

If she votes against Kavanaugh, it will help her.

It'll at least give the Democrats in that state something to vote for.

[IceSpear]

Pharos Research, of all groups, nailed the race twice in 2012, so ND can't be that hard to poll.

Yeah the people citing the lack of a voter file are just deluding themselves

It's a good point, but it's not going to come anywhere close to explaining away a double digit deficit, particularly when it has been corroborated by another poll.

[Fargobison]

If she votes against Kavanaugh, it will help her.

If she votes against Kavanaugh this poll will be a reflection of election night.  

[Ebsy]

I too would buy that Heitkamp is down 12 if Republicans area actually making up 54% of voters in November lol.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The approval numbers for Trump in this poll are way higher than they actually are in the state.

[MT Treasurer]

I remember when MT was a "difficult state to poll". Apparently it no longer is, because no one ever makes that point in the threads discussing polls showing Tester ahead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh f**k, maybe this seat really is gone.

[2016]

If she votes against Kavanaugh, it will help her.

It'll at least give the Democrats in that state something to vote for.

She needs Republican Crossover Voters to pull this off in this State.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Oh f**k, maybe this seat really is gone.

Its not. There is no way that Trumps approval numbers in the state are nearly as high as the poll suggests.

[junior chįmp]

I dont get how shes down. She voted for Gorsuch

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I dont get how shes down. She voted for Gorsuch

Maybe that's why.