ND - Cramer +12 (FOX)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Uh, this is a Fox News poll.

Fox is a good, high quality pollster. Their editorial stance does not come into these polls - it is not like Rasmussen or Gravis or something.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I dont get how shes down. She voted for Gorsuch

Quite simply, it doesn't matter. That's old news and it's not like Cramer would be a swing vote or anything for Trump's nominees. Heitkamp truly was an accidental Senator. I'm still not even sure how she was able to win back in 2012.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I remember when MT was a "difficult state to poll". Apparently it no longer is, because no one ever makes that point in the threads discussing polls showing Tester ahead.

MT does at least have voter registration. ND is a uniquely difficult state to poll, but that does not mean that multiple polls having Heitkamp down by double digits, including Fox (a very good pollster, usually) is in any way good news for Heitkamp. ND is a very deep red state, and there is a general tendency for deep red states to break Republican (and for deep red states to break Democratic). To some extent that may vary in a good year for one side or another, but there are limits to what is possible, and by even being competitive in the first place, Heitkamp is straining them.

[jamestroll]

I dont get how shes down. She voted for Gorsuch

oh great.. you are on this bandwagon as well...?

SCOTUS votes make little impact in the election.

[McGovernForPrez]

This isn't good news for Heitkamp, but anybody declaring her DOA is being extremely reactionary. ND polling is notoriously difficult and we really don't have a large enough body of polls yet to draw solid conclusions. Heitkamp supposedly has a serious ad blitz coming out soon so let's see how things go and stop making stupid claims. Tossup -> Lean R

[Xing]

This forum is going to be a mess on November 7th, no matter who wins. This race can definitely be moved to at least Lean R, though we'll see what polls say in a few weeks. Republicans shouldn't get too giddy, since the same pollster showed MO/IN as being Toss-Ups at best for Republicans, so it's not like this poll alone implies anything other than Heitkamp being in a enormous trouble. She could be like the Kirk of this cycle, in that she loses by a lot, while most other incumbents do decently.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

[Predictor]

Oh f**k, maybe this seat really is gone.

Its not. There is no way that Trumps approval numbers in the state are nearly as high as the poll suggests.

Just personal wishes, not backed up with any fact?

[IceSpear]

Oh f**k, maybe this seat really is gone.

Its not. There is no way that Trumps approval numbers in the state are nearly as high as the poll suggests.

Just personal wishes, not backed up with any fact?

[Adam Griffin]

[Sestak]

This Leans R - at this point, Dems have to hope to overperform either here, TN, or TX to take the chamber.

Takeover of the House is almost certain. Takeover of the Senate is now looking somewhat unlikely. The other Dem incumbents should all win (McCaskill and Donnelly have been gaining some ground over the last month even as Heitkamp has lost ground), but without holding here or an upset Bredesen/Beto win, it won't be enough.

[IceSpear]

Sure, Heitkamp could outperform the polls again (she'd still lose even if she did.) She could also underperform them and get Blanched.

But this is about as good of an argument as Republicans insisting that there will be a red wave because of MUH 2016.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I mean, the RCP average right now is Cramer+8.7. Heitkamp won in 2012 by 0.9 points and the RCP average going into Election Day was 5.7. So even if you assume the same exact swing in her favor ala 2012 she’d still lose by 2.

[Figueira]

Not looking good, and I wouldn't bet on a Heitkamp victory, but giving up, especially this early, is stupid.

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

You know what else is particularly sinister? Rape. I look forward to your party collapsing even more among women because of this attitude.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, I just wanted to post the TRUMAN/DEWEY image because in 4 pages of yakking, nobody was clever enough to do so.

[jamestroll]

Tester has got to be nervous right now with rural trends.

It seems that rural Democrats have mainly recovered in the upper Midwest. But once you leave those borders it gets ugly.

Not saying ND is anything like Montana but Heitkamp's position has only gotten worse.

[IceSpear]

Not looking good, and I wouldn't bet on a Heitkamp victory, but giving up, especially this early, is stupid.

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

You know what else is particularly sinister? Rape. I look forward to your party collapsing even more among women because of this attitude.

Because if nominating and electing the pussygrabber and strongly backing Kavanaugh didn't cause them to collapse among women, I'm sure a post from an Atlas Forum user will.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Guys, I just wanted to post the TRUMAN/DEWEY image because in 4 pages of yakking, nobody was clever enough to do so.

My bad

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Tester has got to be nervous right now with rural trends.

It seems that rural Democrats have mainly recovered in the upper Midwest. But once you leave those borders it gets ugly.

Not saying ND is anything like Montana but Heitkamp's position has only gotten worse.

Montana is actually not that much of a "rural" state, and that is part of the reason why Dems do comparatively well there.

Montana is substantially less "rural" than North Dakota. By that, I mean that the land use in MT is much more oriented towards ranching as opposed to farming (which takes up a greater amount of land with less population, so although ranchers are heavily Republican, you don't get many votes from them), and also a large part of Montana (particularly in the west of MT, which is the more Dem part) is simply uninhabited mountainous wilderness. Montana also has more small cities such as Missoula, Billings, Bozeman, etc than does North Dakota.

This is similarly why Democrats do comparatively well in other states in the Mountain west. Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, etc all have large landmasses, but they are not "rural" in the same sense that, say Nebraska or Missouri outside of St. Louis and KC are rural. That is true to a lesser extent of Montana than of those states, but it still quite significantly differentiates Montana from states and areas that are "rural" further east.

[junior chįmp]

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

Good lord....You guys have all 3 branches of government and control of 34 states and you still keep whining.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

North Dakotans are disgusting vermin if they vote for this rape apologist xenophobic Cramer. Vomit inducing!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Cramer wins by 4-6 in the end, but umm, lemme just say that the most Heitkamp ever trailed in a poll in 2012 was by 10.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

Good lord....You guys have all 3 branches of government and control of 34 states and you still keep whining.

No kidding. How dare we argue it's not accpetable to confirm a rapist to the court?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why doesn't Heitkamp call Kevin out on being a  rape apologist and supporting tariffs that will send us into a gigantic economic crash? Stop playing Nice! Then she'll win!

[Fargobison]

Heidi landed some real blows against Berg in 2012, not really the case this time around with Cramer so far and his gaffes have been way beyond anything Berg said or did. Kind of just a reflection of how much more red and partisan the state has become.

That said this seems a bit optimistic for Cramer,  the race is probably closer to a 5-6% lead for Cramer and it is trending toward him.