ND - Cramer +12 (FOX)

[IceSpear]

But Atlas told me Cramer was finished because of his "Akin comments." LOL.

This one's over, as is the battle for control of the Senate. The Democratic Party's utter incompetence and supreme ability to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory never ceases to amaze me. They just HAD to give the GOP a rallying cry with their stupid Kavanaugh posturing, didn't they?

[IceSpear]

This might be a fun thread to bump in about a month.

To laugh at the delusional people who are pretending Heitkamp still has a chance? Probably.

[IceSpear]

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.

[IceSpear]

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.

Senator Rick Berg agrees.

Just like how Sen. Mourdock and Sen. Akin agreed that Cramer's "gaffe" would be devastating? lol

[IceSpear]

Hackery never ceases to amaze. This poll is junk, and should be thrown away.

Were you trying to be ironic?

No, he is unfortunately dead serious.

[IceSpear]

If she votes against Kavanaugh, it will help her.

[IceSpear]

Pharos Research, of all groups, nailed the race twice in 2012, so ND can't be that hard to poll.

Yeah the people citing the lack of a voter file are just deluding themselves

It's a good point, but it's not going to come anywhere close to explaining away a double digit deficit, particularly when it has been corroborated by another poll.

[IceSpear]

Oh f**k, maybe this seat really is gone.

Its not. There is no way that Trumps approval numbers in the state are nearly as high as the poll suggests.

Just personal wishes, not backed up with any fact?

[IceSpear]

Sure, Heitkamp could outperform the polls again (she'd still lose even if she did.) She could also underperform them and get Blanched.

But this is about as good of an argument as Republicans insisting that there will be a red wave because of MUH 2016.

[IceSpear]

Not looking good, and I wouldn't bet on a Heitkamp victory, but giving up, especially this early, is stupid.

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

You know what else is particularly sinister? Rape. I look forward to your party collapsing even more among women because of this attitude.

Because if nominating and electing the pussygrabber and strongly backing Kavanaugh didn't cause them to collapse among women, I'm sure a post from an Atlas Forum user will.

[IceSpear]

But Atlas told me Cramer was finished because of his "Akin comments." LOL.

This one's over, as is the battle for control of the Senate. The Democratic Party's utter incompetence and supreme ability to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory never ceases to amaze me. They just HAD to give the GOP a rallying cry with their stupid Kavanaugh posturing, didn't they?

Is this a troll or...? Because it seems you're implying that standing up to a partisan, vicious accused rapist is somehow incompetent and somehow ruined the re-election of a woman who was already 10 points behind. Do you like Kavanaugh or something?

It might be the right thing to do morally (not that it really matters since he's going to be confirmed regardless), but it is objectively the wrong thing to do politically if your goal is to win in deeply Republican states.

And she wasn't already down 10. The polls before Kavanaugh had her down 4-5.

Anyway, there's already a sexually assaulting pussygrabber in the White House. You get the government you deserve. It's what the American people wanted and voted for after all. I don't see how a potential sex criminal being on the SCOTUS would further disgrace our country any more than it already is disgraced.

[IceSpear]

But Atlas told me Cramer was finished because of his "Akin comments." LOL.

This one's over, as is the battle for control of the Senate. The Democratic Party's utter incompetence and supreme ability to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory never ceases to amaze me. They just HAD to give the GOP a rallying cry with their stupid Kavanaugh posturing, didn't they?

Is this a troll or...? Because it seems you're implying that standing up to a partisan, vicious accused rapist is somehow incompetent and somehow ruined the re-election of a woman who was already 10 points behind. Do you like Kavanaugh or something?

It might be the right thing to do morally (not that it really matters since he's going to be confirmed regardless), but it is objectively the wrong thing to do politically if your goal is to win in deeply Republican states.

And she wasn't already down 10. The polls before Kavanaugh had her down 4-5.

Anyway, there's already a sexually assaulting pussygrabber in the White House. You get the government you deserve. It's what the American people wanted and voted for after all. I don't see how a potential sex criminal being on the SCOTUS would further disgrace our country any more than it already is disgraced.

Because the most Trump can do damage to this country is capped at 8 years. Kavanaugh being empowered by a Conservative court (with Clarence Thomas) can be horrific and can last for decades, with any effects lasting even longer. What if RBG dies and Trump appoints a far-right wing candidate? What then? Should we just roll over and allow them to ascend to the supreme court to protect a bunch of red-state dems, even if it means putting people into a lifetime position where they can repeal numerous laws protecting women, LGBTQ, and minorities?

Yeah, but that's the case regardless of whether or not Kavanaugh is a sex criminal or even whether he gets confirmed or not. Even if there's a miracle and he gets voted down, Trump will just replace him with a less controversial conservative who will vote the same way on everything and they'll clear the Senate easily. If Democrats actually held the majority in the Senate (or had any power whatsoever to stop a SCOTUS appointment) I'd agree with you, but making a battle you're doomed to lose into Waterloo while simultaneously trying to win deep red states in the election that's a month away seems like a lose/lose situation to me.

[IceSpear]

With this reply, this thread now has the most replies of any thread on this board.

[IceSpear]

With this reply, this thread now has the most replies of any thread on this board.

Just wait until a Rosendale +1/2 poll comes out somewhere. It will make this thread look like a harmonious interaction between calm and sensible Atlas posters.

Oddly enough Indiana seems to be the most popular, as 3 of the top 6 are Indiana threads. Who would've thought?

[IceSpear]

The senate was viewed as a long shot since the beginning and Heidi has been viewed as the most vulnerable dem for weeks now so why is everyone jumping off the bridge?

The Senate was viewed as a long shot, but if Heidi is screwed it goes from a long shot to a ridiculously long shot. Also, many delusional Dem hacks here didn't (still don't?) even view the Senate as a long shot at all, lol.

She was viewed as the most vulnerable, but nobody expected her to be trailing by anywhere near this much.

[IceSpear]

RIP Heidi. She was always one of my faves. Such a cool gal. Will be dearly missed.

Yeah, I'll be sad to see her go. But honestly, she was an accidental senator from the start and was never supposed to win to begin with, so I guess we should just be happy we got her for 6 years.

[IceSpear]

The battle for the senate is over. The comments didn’t hurt him at all. Bredesen and O’Rourke are slipping away and Hyde-Smith will easily make it to the runoff.

Not to nitpick, but is Texas truly slipping away? The most recent polls, even excluding that Junkie Reuters one, shows him catching up or even tide slash slightly ahead of Cruz. It would still be an upset for him to win oh, sure, but I'm not aware of any recent developments indicating the momentum has shifted back to Cruz.

Bredesen was down 5 in that recent Fox poll, which is probably enough to say the momentum has shifted away from him, just as everyone here is predicted would like eventually happen.

Haha, definitely not "everyone."

[IceSpear]

64% of likely voters approve of Donald Trump? Sounds a little off to me.  

This is North Dakota we're talking about.

Its probably 54% at most in North Dakota.

Donald Trump got 63% in ND. Nationally he got 46%. His approval right now is at 42%. So logically he should be around 59%, +/- a few points. Not unreasonable at all.

Actually he's at 44% if you only look at RV/LV polls (which are the only ones that matter.)

But yeah, a few of our posters seem to have a hard time comprehending this stuff. Math is hard and all. If you just compare his current approval to his vote share it's not hard to ballpark what his current approval in any given state would be. It's not perfect obviously since uniform swing isn't a thing, but it's a lot more reliable than the Bernie Math stuff going around here. "Trump's approval should be lower because that's what my FEELS tell me!"