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December 16, 2019, 07:40:43 am
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
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Author Topic: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)  (Read 3555 times)
Predictor
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« on: October 03, 2018, 05:08:08 pm »

Blackburn - 48%
Bredesen - 43%

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tennessee-poll-document-10-3
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 05:10:40 pm »

Nice!
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The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 05:12:10 pm »

It was too good to last, all those Bredesen leads.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 05:27:40 pm »

Blackburn lead in the last fox poll and then the CNN Bredesen 5+ came out. So toss-up > toss-up
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 05:31:11 pm »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
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Predictor
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 05:39:07 pm »

Blackburn lead in the last fox poll and then the CNN Bredesen 5+ came out. So toss-up > toss-up

That CNN one came out around the same time as the last FOX poll in September. Blackburn's gone up by two points since then.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 05:40:07 pm »

Yeah, Blackburn has this.
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Virginia
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 05:46:20 pm »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.

Once RCP adds this, their average will probably go up one or two points, and it's tied right now. It's hardly the end for Bredesen, although it could end up that way I suppose.

Current polling looks like a 50-50 senate, with Democrats winning 2 new seats but losing 1. That's not too bad, all things considered. Winning the Senate was always going to be a really tough goal.
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bilaps
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2018, 05:47:00 pm »

Never really doubted that TN will go R this time. NV and AZ are only realistic pickups for Dems.

But with ND going from Heitkamp, it pretty much seals senate for Republicans
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2018, 05:47:45 pm »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 05:47:51 pm »

With Bredesen's Alan J.Dixon response to the Kavanaugh nomination and says he won't support Schumer as Leader may have cost him this race.
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2018, 05:48:46 pm »

Can I move this to Lean R now?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2018, 05:50:57 pm »

This is about the same as their last poll a month ago.
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2018, 05:52:03 pm »

This is about the same as their last poll a month ago.
...and the Atlas panic continues. Every time Bredesen isn't ahead this becomes Safe R, and when he's ahead, it's a tossup.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2018, 05:52:28 pm »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Yes...and it was accurate.
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2018, 05:53:33 pm »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Yes...and it was accurate.
Until the next Bredesen +2 poll came out.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2018, 06:19:05 pm »

I'm not sure how any rational person could say this is anything but a tossup. We literally just got a CNN poll last week with Bredesen +5, and a Marist before that at Bredesen +2. And Vox Populi.

If I'm remembering correctly, Fox News is the only high quality pollster to have Blackburn up.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2018, 06:23:24 pm »

This is about the same as their last poll a month ago.
...and the Atlas panic continues. Every time Bredesen isn't ahead this becomes Safe R, and when he's ahead, it's a tossup.

Bredesen said that he would not support Schumer as Leader
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Virginia
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 06:25:12 pm »

I'm not sure how any rational person could say this is anything but a tossup. We literally just got a CNN poll last week with Bredesen +5, and a Marist before that at Bredesen +2. And Vox Populi.

If I'm remembering correctly, Fox News is the only high quality pollster to have Blackburn up.

The gist is that some users consider Tennessee to be so Republican-leaning that anything short of consistent, mid-high single digit (or better) leads for Bredesen in every poll, means Blackburn will win just by nature of TN reverting to its natural hyper-Republican state.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 06:46:09 pm »

If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2018, 06:52:09 pm »

If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2018, 06:57:57 pm »

If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2018, 07:04:10 pm »

If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.

So then where is his current 44% approval rating coming from? A surge in California and going up to 100% approval in Oklahoma?
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2018, 07:09:53 pm »

If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.

So then where is his current 44% approval rating coming from? A surge in California and going up to 100% approval in Oklahoma?
Two polls have come out posting his approval at 37 and 41. His approval is TN is probably more like 55.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2018, 07:10:28 pm »

I wasn't getting my hopes up, but still: BOO!
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