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  MO- Tied (Fox)
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Author Topic: MO- Tied (Fox)  (Read 1305 times)
Predictor
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« on: October 03, 2018, 05:11:19 pm »

McCaskill - 43%
Hawley - 43%

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/missouri-poll-document-10-3
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 05:21:39 pm »

So youíre telling me that Hawley and McCaskill will both each receive at least 43% of the vote? Wow.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 05:42:38 pm »

So youíre telling me that Hawley and McCaskill will both each receive at least 43% of the vote? Wow.

McCaskill getting at least 43% would've been surprising to Atlas a year ago. Wink
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 06:02:20 pm »

They really need to push the undecided...
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 06:04:14 pm »

They really need to push the undecided...

It's 46-46 when third parties are omitted.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 06:14:28 pm »

Another tie, just what this race needed.
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 06:14:45 pm »

This is crazy. So many polls showing the race tied.
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 06:51:04 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.
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jimmie
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2018, 06:54:32 pm »

ugh I may be proven wrong. Back to toss up..

and no way trump is at 54% in missouri. its more like 48 to 48
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2018, 06:57:00 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.

He got 46% of the vote nationally and 56% in Missouri in 2016. He's now at 44% approval nationally. Are you just ignoring all the recent polls and pretending he's still at 40% approval or something?
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 06:58:33 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.

He got 46% of the vote nationally and 56% in Missouri in 2016. He's now at 44% approval nationally. Are you just ignoring all the recent polls and pretending he's still at 40% approval or something?

I have seen a lot of polling data on Missouri, and 54% is not in line with anything else I have seen. Trump even or narrowly underwater here.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2018, 07:03:03 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.

He got 46% of the vote nationally and 56% in Missouri in 2016. He's now at 44% approval nationally. Are you just ignoring all the recent polls and pretending he's still at 40% approval or something?

I have seen a lot of polling data on Missouri, and 54% is not in line with anything else I have seen. Trump even or narrowly underwater here.

So then he's disproportionately falling in Missouri compared to nationally? I don't see why that would be the case. Trump being evenly split in Missouri made sense when he was at ~40% approval, but the Manafort/Cohen hit has worn off and he's back up to ~44% now.
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jimmie
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2018, 07:06:03 pm »

IceSpear,

2018 elections may resemble 2012 more than 2016. Yes I do believe Republicans have fallen more in Missouri and the midwest in general compared to nationally.

But watch 2020 come and Trump wins Wisconsin again.

I am less optimistic on McCaskill than most here because rural Missouri has not produced the heavy Democratic swings in elections and polls that states further north to it have.

Also keep in mind that Trump had a lot of room to fall in Platte and Clay counties in the KC Metro and St Charles/West St Louis/JeffCo in the St Louis metro.

So yes..  I would wager Trump is narrowly underwater here
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Suburban Vegas Moderate for Trump (if Sanders/Warren win)
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2018, 07:07:15 pm »

Dare I call this race a Toss-Up? lol
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2018, 07:07:28 pm »

Trump is not at 44% approval though, and he certainly won't be there on election day. You are just cherrypicking a number because it suits whatever moronic narrative you have contrived.

I believe that the Missouri Senate Race is as close to a toss up as it gets. The fact that McCaskill is tied in a poll's sample that is so favorable to Hawley is pretty remarkable.
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jimmie
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2018, 07:08:27 pm »

Let me state the obvious

Trump won Platte and Clay counties in the KC Metro because they are extremely white suburbs.

But they are moderate suburbs and Trump had so much room to fall there.

No poll with Trump in the mid-50s in MO is credible.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2018, 07:09:45 pm »

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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2018, 07:12:07 pm »

Trump is not at 44% approval though, and he certainly won't be there on election day. You are just cherrypicking a number because it suits whatever moronic narrative you have contrived.

I believe that the Missouri Senate Race is as close to a toss up as it gets. The fact that McCaskill is tied in a poll's sample that is so favorable to Hawley is pretty remarkable.

No, "moronic" is the guy that thought the Comey letter wouldn't matter and that Hillary would win St. Charles County, MO. And once again, my "narrative" is far more in line with reality than yours is. RCP has him at 43.9% and 538 has him at 43.4%. Sorry to burst your bubble (not really.)




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jimmie
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 07:12:56 pm »

My ideal situation is that we keep Josh Hawley tied up until election day

and afterwards we have a repeat of 2012 in which McCaskill wins by a largely than anticipated margin.

Though my mind, which is dead set on suburban and rural trends, would think there would be a photo finish for Hawley.
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Silurian
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 07:13:03 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.

He got 46% of the vote nationally and 56% in Missouri in 2016. He's now at 44% approval nationally. Are you just ignoring all the recent polls and pretending he's still at 40% approval or something?

2016 results are a universe of their own. Your statement would be more relevant if Trump won completely on his own merits in 2016, as opposed to a significant chunk of the vote not only voting against Clinton, but many even voting 3rd party.

In this sense, it's perfectly plausible for Trump to be slightly more popular in 2020 yet win Missouri by significantly less, or even lose it entirely, so long as his Democratic opponent is semi-popular and not a total dud. It's also shouldn't be surprising for MO Republicans to do worse this cycle despite Trump being more popular than he was in 2016, for the aforementioned reasons.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2018, 07:24:18 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.

He got 46% of the vote nationally and 56% in Missouri in 2016. He's now at 44% approval nationally. Are you just ignoring all the recent polls and pretending he's still at 40% approval or something?

2016 results are a universe of their own. Your statement would be more relevant if Trump won completely on his own merits in 2016, as opposed to a significant chunk of the vote not only voting against Clinton, but many even voting 3rd party.

In this sense, it's perfectly plausible for Trump to be slightly more popular in 2020 yet win Missouri by significantly less, or even lose it entirely, so long as his Democratic opponent is semi-popular and not a total dud. It's also shouldn't be surprising for MO Republicans to do worse this cycle despite Trump being more popular than he was in 2016, for the aforementioned reasons.

My point isn't about 2020 or Trump's opponent though. It's just the simple fact that if Trump has a 44% approval rating nationally, then it has to be coming from somewhere. And considering Missouri is a red state that he won by 18 points it would only make sense that it is one of the states where he is doing significantly better than his overall approval, unless he's surging in places like California and Oklahoma to make up the difference. Or the polls are just wrong. But Trump being above 50% in Missouri is certainly logically consistent with him being at 44% nationally.
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2018, 07:33:50 pm »

Not sure why a tie here is so hard to believe or why this race is only "at best" a Toss-up for Republicans, lol. Basically every poll has shown an extremely close race here.
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Silurian
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2018, 07:53:31 pm »

My point isn't about 2020 or Trump's opponent though. It's just the simple fact that if Trump has a 44% approval rating nationally, then it has to be coming from somewhere. And considering Missouri is a red state that he won by 18 points it would only make sense that it is one of the states where he is doing significantly better than his overall approval, unless he's surging in places like California and Oklahoma to make up the difference. Or the polls are just wrong. But Trump being above 50% in Missouri is certainly logically consistent with him being at 44% nationally.

Yea, fair enough. I agree.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2018, 08:02:51 pm »

Okay Icespear Iím going to be really anal and point out Trumpís at 43 not 44. Youíre suppose to round up at .5 and above
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2018, 08:08:35 pm »

Okay Icespear Iím going to be really anal and point out Trumpís at 43 not 44. Youíre suppose to round up at .5 and above

If you average the 43.9 on RCP and the 43.4 on 538 it rounds up to 44. Wink #Atlas
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