Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 23, 2019, 09:30:24 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO- Tied (Fox) (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: MO- Tied (Fox)  (Read 1210 times)
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,770
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

« on: October 03, 2018, 05:42:38 pm »

So youíre telling me that Hawley and McCaskill will both each receive at least 43% of the vote? Wow.

McCaskill getting at least 43% would've been surprising to Atlas a year ago. Wink
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,770
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 06:57:00 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.

He got 46% of the vote nationally and 56% in Missouri in 2016. He's now at 44% approval nationally. Are you just ignoring all the recent polls and pretending he's still at 40% approval or something?
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,770
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 07:03:03 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.

He got 46% of the vote nationally and 56% in Missouri in 2016. He's now at 44% approval nationally. Are you just ignoring all the recent polls and pretending he's still at 40% approval or something?

I have seen a lot of polling data on Missouri, and 54% is not in line with anything else I have seen. Trump even or narrowly underwater here.

So then he's disproportionately falling in Missouri compared to nationally? I don't see why that would be the case. Trump being evenly split in Missouri made sense when he was at ~40% approval, but the Manafort/Cohen hit has worn off and he's back up to ~44% now.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,770
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 07:12:07 pm »

Trump is not at 44% approval though, and he certainly won't be there on election day. You are just cherrypicking a number because it suits whatever moronic narrative you have contrived.

I believe that the Missouri Senate Race is as close to a toss up as it gets. The fact that McCaskill is tied in a poll's sample that is so favorable to Hawley is pretty remarkable.

No, "moronic" is the guy that thought the Comey letter wouldn't matter and that Hillary would win St. Charles County, MO. And once again, my "narrative" is far more in line with reality than yours is. RCP has him at 43.9% and 538 has him at 43.4%. Sorry to burst your bubble (not really.)




Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,770
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 07:24:18 pm »

Trump's approvals are not at 54% in Missouri.

He got 46% of the vote nationally and 56% in Missouri in 2016. He's now at 44% approval nationally. Are you just ignoring all the recent polls and pretending he's still at 40% approval or something?

2016 results are a universe of their own. Your statement would be more relevant if Trump won completely on his own merits in 2016, as opposed to a significant chunk of the vote not only voting against Clinton, but many even voting 3rd party.

In this sense, it's perfectly plausible for Trump to be slightly more popular in 2020 yet win Missouri by significantly less, or even lose it entirely, so long as his Democratic opponent is semi-popular and not a total dud. It's also shouldn't be surprising for MO Republicans to do worse this cycle despite Trump being more popular than he was in 2016, for the aforementioned reasons.

My point isn't about 2020 or Trump's opponent though. It's just the simple fact that if Trump has a 44% approval rating nationally, then it has to be coming from somewhere. And considering Missouri is a red state that he won by 18 points it would only make sense that it is one of the states where he is doing significantly better than his overall approval, unless he's surging in places like California and Oklahoma to make up the difference. Or the polls are just wrong. But Trump being above 50% in Missouri is certainly logically consistent with him being at 44% nationally.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,770
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 08:08:35 pm »

Okay Icespear Iím going to be really anal and point out Trumpís at 43 not 44. Youíre suppose to round up at .5 and above

If you average the 43.9 on RCP and the 43.4 on 538 it rounds up to 44. Wink #Atlas
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC