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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO- Tied (Fox) (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO- Tied (Fox)  (Read 1209 times)
jimmie
jamespol
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« on: October 03, 2018, 06:54:32 pm »

ugh I may be proven wrong. Back to toss up..

and no way trump is at 54% in missouri. its more like 48 to 48
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 07:06:03 pm »

IceSpear,

2018 elections may resemble 2012 more than 2016. Yes I do believe Republicans have fallen more in Missouri and the midwest in general compared to nationally.

But watch 2020 come and Trump wins Wisconsin again.

I am less optimistic on McCaskill than most here because rural Missouri has not produced the heavy Democratic swings in elections and polls that states further north to it have.

Also keep in mind that Trump had a lot of room to fall in Platte and Clay counties in the KC Metro and St Charles/West St Louis/JeffCo in the St Louis metro.

So yes..  I would wager Trump is narrowly underwater here
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 07:08:27 pm »

Let me state the obvious

Trump won Platte and Clay counties in the KC Metro because they are extremely white suburbs.

But they are moderate suburbs and Trump had so much room to fall there.

No poll with Trump in the mid-50s in MO is credible.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 07:12:56 pm »

My ideal situation is that we keep Josh Hawley tied up until election day

and afterwards we have a repeat of 2012 in which McCaskill wins by a largely than anticipated margin.

Though my mind, which is dead set on suburban and rural trends, would think there would be a photo finish for Hawley.
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