It’s February 2017, and all you see...
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Author Topic: It’s February 2017, and all you see...  (Read 358 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: October 22, 2018, 06:18:41 PM »
...is the current (October 2018) RCP average of ND-SEN, with Heitkamp trailing by double digits in the polls two weeks before election day. What would your prediction have been?

Mine:

Trump approval: ~65%
House: Safe R
Senate: Safe R
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 06:21:37 PM »
Similar but I might flip VA and I'd have MN split. Stabenow should win and Michigan will be a hold for the Ds.

More interesting question would be 'what would the map look like if it were February of 2015, and I saw the ND map from 2018.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 06:25:54 PM »
http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/80Q0yl
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2018, 06:29:49 PM »
If I had known Heitkamp would be blanched in February 2017, I would be thinking a veto-proof R majority legitimately would be plausible. Keep in mind Heitkamp wasn't considered nearly as vulnerable as the other red-state Dems.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 06:37:00 PM »
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her losing, but seeing her getting Blanched would probably lead me to believe it was at minimum a decent year for Republicans. So maybe something like:

Senate: R+5
House: D+5
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2018, 06:43:24 PM »

Seems like a bit of an overreaction, don't you think? Dems are going to lose a Clinton +6 Senate seat because their incumbent is trailing by double digits in a Trump +36 state, and is still outperforming Clinton by like 20 points?
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