Is Heitkamp Really DOA In The Election This Time? 2018 GE Edition

[MT Treasurer]

She’s in a much worse position than people on this forum are willing to admit (and the "don’t trust any ND poll" "argument" is beyond ridiculous), but she’s not DOA quite yet.

[Pollster]

Nobody is saying don't trust the ND polls. They are faulty (for reasons beyond the pollster's control) but faulty polls still provide lots of critical, big-picture information.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Nobody is saying don't trust the ND polls. They are faulty (for reasons beyond the pollster's control) but faulty polls still provide lots of critical, big-picture information.

[Xing]

The double standards here are pretty amusing. You'd all laugh at anyone who thought a Republican consistently behind by double digits in a deep blue state could still win, and for good reason.

To be fair, I didn't move IL-GOV to Safe D as soon as we had two polls showing Rauner down by double digits. And Rauner is much more unpopular than Heitkamp. Once we had several polls showing him way down, then it became pretty clear that he didn't have a prayer of a chance. Plus, Heitkamp's deficit seems to be a very sudden change, and I'm only waiting to make sure it will last before completely writing her off. As I said, though, it certainly doesn't look good for her.

[Former Kentuckian]

She's in a very vulnerable position, but I'm hoping national environment and massive turn-out in the Eastern cities will pull her over. I admit I'm possibly being naive, though, because Heitkamp is one of my favorites.

[Orser67]

Two straight polls have shown her down by 10 points, and the other recent poll showed her down by 4. I won't rule out her winning, but she really needs a shake up in the race to pull off a victory.

[History505]

Check back on Nov 1st, and see how it is then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course not, Dems need to hold ND and MO and win either TN/TX and combination of AZ/MS/NV would give them control

[Mr. Smith]

Check back on Nov 1st, and see how it is then.

[Yellowhammer]

She isn’t completely DOA, but she’s in an even worse position than Heller, which is sayin something.

[Fargobison]

She is done unless Cramer makes a huge mistake. TV buys aren't going to change anything and I don't think she can really do anything either.

[MT Treasurer]

She is done unless Cramer makes a huge mistake. TV buys aren't going to change anything and I don't think she can really do anything either.

Thoughts on the margin?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most of the polling has been from Fox News from Dakota, and ratings still has this as tossup. Cramer isn't gonna win by 12

[Blair]

Most of the polling has been from Fox News from Dakota, and ratings still has this as tossup. Cramer isn't gonna win by 12

The worst take is that Fox News Polling is unreliable- it's just their name because they pay for the poll (they had Doug Jones at +10 on the day of Al-Senate race)

But no Heitkamp isn't DOA- she's just got somewhere between a 10-30% likelihood of winning.

[Tekken_Guy]

The Kavanaugh Confirmation could be a boon to her. If he were rejected he would have been DOA.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

In general, being on the losing side of any vote does not result in political consequences.

So there will not be political consequences towards Heitkamp over the Kavanaugh vote.

[Zaybay]

In general, being on the losing side of any vote does not result in political consequences.

So there will not be political consequences towards Heitkamp over the Kavanaugh vote.

No, there will be consequences, it just means it wont be blaring that "SHE DECIDED KAVANAUGH WOULD FAIL!" Really, the way for Heidi to win at this point is to control the airwaves, get people knocking on doors as quick as possible, and hope that Kavanaugh fades into the darkness, and something like tariffs comes back.

Still though, unless polling shows otherwise, she aint favored at all.

[Former Kentuckian]

In general, being on the losing side of any vote does not result in political consequences.

So there will not be political consequences towards Heitkamp over the Kavanaugh vote.

No, there will be consequences, it just means it wont be blaring that "SHE DECIDED KAVANAUGH WOULD FAIL!" Really, the way for Heidi to win at this point is to control the airwaves, get people knocking on doors as quick as possible, and hope that Kavanaugh fades into the darkness, and something like tariffs comes back.

Still though, unless polling shows otherwise, she aint favored at all.

Well, according to the Heitkamp campaign, the coordinated effort between them and the North Dakota Democratic Party has led to 260,946 doors knocked, 828,496 calls made, 1,124 volunteers, over 5,000 yard signs dispersed, and over 100 barn signs dispersed. The Cass County Dems were reporting that Heitkamp's donation page was briefly down from traffic after announcing her Kavanaugh decision but who knows how many of those people are North Dakota voters.

[Former Kentuckian]

More on Heitkamp's site crashing from traffic: https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/contributions-spike-supporters-crash-heidi-heitkamps-website-red-state-democrat-announces-no-brett-kavanaugh/amp/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

More on Heitkamp's site crashing from traffic: https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/contributions-spike-supporters-crash-heidi-heitkamps-website-red-state-democrat-announces-no-brett-kavanaugh/amp/

This is mostly all out of state. The loud reeing by the far left twitter activists for Heitkamp and against Manchin are mostly not the voters of their states.

Jmilescoleman retweeted this

https://mobile.twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1048301681841065985

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This goes for Heitkamp in converse.

[Xing]

If there were any justice left in this country, Heitkamp would win and Manchin would lose, but the Kavanaugh spectacle makes it crystal clear that there is no justice in this country.

[IceSpear]

Can someone explain why 538's fundamentals are 'faux fundamentals' rather than just stating it as fact? Something conflicting with your preconceived notions is not fact, and they clearly show where they're coming from with these numbers so it's not some magic number someone pulled out of their ass(unlike so many numbers on Atlas).

There is a breakdown of what goes into their "fundamentals"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/north-dakota/

Heitkamp gets +13.6 for incumbency.

In particular, this advantage that the model is giving Heitkamp is so large because North Dakota is a small state.

He had to do that after Montana and North Dakota were the only two states he called wrong in 2012, and called badly wrong.

I believe that's what we call "overcorrection." Who says he was wrong because they were small states and not just due to random chance and sparse/bad polling?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's going to be tough. I'm not optimistic but I also don't want to rule out another 2012-esque squeaker.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The double standards here are pretty amusing. You'd all laugh at anyone who thought a Republican consistently behind by double digits in a deep blue state could still win, and for good reason.

To be fair, I didn't move IL-GOV to Safe D as soon as we had two polls showing Rauner down by double digits. And Rauner is much more unpopular than Heitkamp. Once we had several polls showing him way down, then it became pretty clear that he didn't have a prayer of a chance. Plus, Heitkamp's deficit seems to be a very sudden change, and I'm only waiting to make sure it will last before completely writing her off. As I said, though, it certainly doesn't look good for her.