Is Heitkamp Really DOA In The Election This Time? 2018 GE Edition

[Fargobison]

She is done unless Cramer makes a huge mistake. TV buys aren't going to change anything and I don't think she can really do anything either.

Thoughts on the margin?

I don't quite buy the double digit leads but Cramer is on very solid ground..probably up 5-6%.

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't put much stock in the polls that are taken right now during the Kavanaugh confirmation vote. Better wait until he gets confirmed by the Senate and another 2 or 3 weeks and then we can see if this had led to increased R + D momentum, which is likely, and who the important Independents will side with.

[Calthrina950]

She isn’t completely DOA, but she’s in an even worse position than Heller, which is sayin something.

I agree. Heitkamp still has a chance of winning, but it is definitely less than 50% at this point. Probably around 30% or 40%, taking the national environment into account. If only one incumbent Democrat loses in 2018, it will be her. McCaskill and Donnelly aren't completely out of the danger zone yet however, but their odds of winning are higher than Heitkamp's.

Heitkamp will probably lose by mid single digits, ~4-6% or so. Her loss will complete North Dakota's realignment into a solidly Republican state at all levels. Democrats, I believe, are done for in most of the Mountain West, and will be for decades to come.

[History505]

She isn’t completely DOA, but she’s in an even worse position than Heller, which is sayin something.

I agree. Heitkamp still has a chance of winning, but it is definitely less than 50% at this point. Probably around 30% or 40%, taking the national environment into account. If only one incumbent Democrat loses in 2018, it will be her. McCaskill and Donnelly aren't completely out of the danger zone yet however, but their odds of winning are higher than Heitkamp's.

Heitkamp will probably lose by mid single digits, ~4-6% or so. Her loss will complete North Dakota's realignment into a solidly Republican state at all levels. Democrats, I believe, are done for in most of the Mountain West, and will be for decades to come.

"For decades to come". A little absurd I think.

[KingSweden]

She is done unless Cramer makes a huge mistake. TV buys aren't going to change anything and I don't think she can really do anything either.

Thoughts on the margin?

I don't quite buy the double digit leads but Cramer is on very solid ground..probably up 5-6%.

This is my thinking too.

[Calthrina950]

She isn’t completely DOA, but she’s in an even worse position than Heller, which is sayin something.

I agree. Heitkamp still has a chance of winning, but it is definitely less than 50% at this point. Probably around 30% or 40%, taking the national environment into account. If only one incumbent Democrat loses in 2018, it will be her. McCaskill and Donnelly aren't completely out of the danger zone yet however, but their odds of winning are higher than Heitkamp's.

Heitkamp will probably lose by mid single digits, ~4-6% or so. Her loss will complete North Dakota's realignment into a solidly Republican state at all levels. Democrats, I believe, are done for in most of the Mountain West, and will be for decades to come.

"For decades to come". A little absurd I think.

In what way? Do you think that these states are going to shift back to the Democrats soon? Because that's not what I am seeing happen.

[Figueira]

She isn’t completely DOA, but she’s in an even worse position than Heller, which is sayin something.

I agree. Heitkamp still has a chance of winning, but it is definitely less than 50% at this point. Probably around 30% or 40%, taking the national environment into account. If only one incumbent Democrat loses in 2018, it will be her. McCaskill and Donnelly aren't completely out of the danger zone yet however, but their odds of winning are higher than Heitkamp's.

Heitkamp will probably lose by mid single digits, ~4-6% or so. Her loss will complete North Dakota's realignment into a solidly Republican state at all levels. Democrats, I believe, are done for in most of the Mountain West, and will be for decades to come.

"For decades to come". A little absurd I think.

In what way? Do you think that these states are going to shift back to the Democrats soon? Because that's not what I am seeing happen.

I could see one of the Mountain West states possibly become the next Colorado, but I don't know which one or when.

Since when is North Dakota a Mountain West state though?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

She's certainly in trouble, but Democrats still have a better chance in ND than TX or TN.

[SCNCmod]

I'm not sure I agree regarding Tx (I think Beto & Heitkamp are pretty even).  But I definitely disagree regarding TN. ... TN has a Far better chance of going Dem compared to TX & ND (A very loved 2 term Governor vs a House member that even some Republicans think may be too out there to be a Senator).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm starting to now think that she might be.

[Zaybay]

Shes in trouble, but not out.

[Xing]

Looking like the answer is yes. Unless we get some polls showing the race tightening considerably, might be time to write her off. She was down in the polls in 2012, but never by this much.

[2016]

Shes in trouble, but not out.

She is OUT. Give up! and look to TN & TX.

[ElectionsGuy]

I agree, Democrats now have a better chance of picking up Tennessee and Texas than holding on to North Dakota. I realize its just one poll (and a bit Republican friendly poll at that) but it confirms what many have suspected about this race for weeks now, and that is Heitkamp is too underwater to pull it off outside of a huge gaffe or scandal on the part of Cramer.

[Gass3268]

I agree, Democrats now have a better chance of picking up Tennessee and Texas than holding on to North Dakota. I realize its just one poll (and a bit Republican friendly poll at that) but it confirms what many have suspected about this race for weeks now, and that is Heitkamp is too underwater to pull it off outside of a huge gaffe or scandal on the part of Cramer.

Cramer has already had some Aikenesque gaffs about rape. I'm thinking we would have to be looking at Roy Moore level scandal for Hedi to have a chance.

[IceSpear]

It's time to let go, guys.

[2016]

I agree, Democrats now have a better chance of picking up Tennessee and Texas than holding on to North Dakota. I realize its just one poll (and a bit Republican friendly poll at that) but it confirms what many have suspected about this race for weeks now, and that is Heitkamp is too underwater to pull it off outside of a huge gaffe or scandal on the part of Cramer.

All the Plain States like SD, NE, WY have two GOP Senators. It's time that ND votes what is IMO long overdue. TBH, I was surprised that the likes of Dorgan, Conrad and Pomeroy could hang on for so long in ND between 2000-2010.

[Brittain33]

There’s no waving away that last poll showing her down 16 points.

[2016]

There’s no waving away that last poll showing her down 16 points.

Well, didn't she have to apologized to some Women after Kavanaugh? I think that was the Final Nail in the coffin for her. What do you think?

[Brittain33]

There’s no waving away that last poll showing her down 16 points.

Well, didn't she have to apologized to some Women after Kavanaugh? I think that was the Final Nail in the coffin for her. What do you think?

I think the partisan lean and popularity of Trump is too great for her to overcome. Her Kavanaugh vote couldn’t help her either way, it was a lose/lose so she was right to vote her conscience and integrity.

[wesmoorenerd]

Heitkamp is toast. She has about as good of a chance of winning as Espy at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Berg should of won last time, she only won in an upset, but Dems can still win TN,AZ, and NV to take Senate.

[MT Treasurer]

"A NO vote on Kavanaugh actually helps Heitkamp since it boosts Democratic turnout/enthusiasm/donations and is a great opportunity for her to demonstrate authenticity. Now she at least has a fighting chance, especially if Republicans stay home because they think they have it in the bag after seeing those polls on US Election Atlas Dot Org."

[Wisconsin+17]

Only atlas would skew this poll 60/40.

[Pandaguineapig]

There’s no waving away that last poll showing her down 16 points.

Well, didn't she have to apologized to some Women after Kavanaugh? I think that was the Final Nail in the coffin for her. What do you think?

I think the partisan lean and popularity of Trump is too great for her to overcome. Her Kavanaugh vote couldn’t help her either way, it was a lose/lose so she was right to vote her conscience and integrity.

Or she wanted to remain in the good graces of her democratic colleagues so she can score a lobbying or CNN gig after she leaves office