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Author Topic: AZ-Data Orbital: Gov. Ducey (R) enjoys huge lead  (Read 1004 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 06, 2018, 10:15:19 am »







Quote
This poll of 550 likely General Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.18%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical Arizona general election turnout. The poll was conducted from October 1-3, 2018. All non-released questions prior to questions released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.

https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/new-survey-ducey-and-gaynor-lead-in-democratic-surge-scenario
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2018, 10:26:05 am »

Multiple polls showed Ducey ahead by double digits in recent days and weeks. I guess I have to move this from lean Republican to likely Republican at least. And even closer to safe than lean. Just hope that doesn't affect the senate race to McSally's benefit. Democrats must pick up this seat.
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2018, 01:28:23 pm »

Yikes, this seems to have gone the way of AZ-SEN 2016. Crazy to think that there would be so many Ducey/Sinema voters, but I guess not literally everyone votes based on who has a capital (R) or (D) next to their name.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2018, 01:38:50 pm »

Lean D.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2018, 03:03:06 pm »

They didn't poll the Senate race
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2018, 04:55:07 pm »

Lean D.

According to my "add 10 points to every Democrat" mind model*, Garcia is still in this race.

*Except in Nevada, there you add 10 points to the Republican instead.
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2018, 05:23:28 pm »

Lean D.

According to my "add 10 points to every Democrat" mind model*, Garcia is still in this race.

*Except in Nevada, there you add 10 points to the Republican instead.

When you factor in the momentary Kavanaugh bump, the state's Democratic trend, VA-GOV 2017 redux, the high number of undecideds who will all break Democratic, the blue wave and the fact that Arizona is a notoriously difficult state to poll, itís obvious that Ducey is the underdog and more likely to lose than Heitkamp and Heller.
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2018, 05:29:46 pm »

On a serious note, why is Garcia so weak?
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2018, 07:03:06 pm »

On a serious note, why is Garcia so weak?

It probably doesn't help that his last name is Garcia.
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2018, 07:20:37 pm »

Why have there been so many polls of this race? Can we get some Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio polls instead, please?
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2018, 08:10:27 pm »

Incumbent governors are usually tough to beat.
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2018, 08:29:07 pm »

Likely R --> Safe R
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2018, 09:31:22 pm »

thats what happens when spending is literally 50 to 1

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1047901125255475200
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2018, 10:06:04 pm »

Lean D.

According to my "add 10 points to every Democrat" mind model*, Garcia is still in this race.

*Except in Nevada, there you add 10 points to the Republican instead.

When you factor in the momentary Kavanaugh bump, the state's Democratic trend, VA-GOV 2017 redux, the high number of undecideds who will all break Democratic, the blue wave and the fact that Arizona is a notoriously difficult state to poll, itís obvious that Ducey is the underdog and more likely to lose than Heitkamp and Heller.
But muh democrats are supposed to win 70-80 seats, AZ, NV, TX, TN, and MS-Special!
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2018, 01:27:34 am »

Solid to me this was tilt D
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2018, 02:34:12 am »

Yeah, looks like this race is over.

I still don't buy the "Kyl bump" theory, though.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2018, 02:55:50 am »

Yeah, looks like this race is over.

I still don't buy the "Kyl bump" theory, though.

McCain sympathy vote, just like Collins voted for Kavanaugh due to Barbara Bush sympathy vote. As Bushes are residents of ME. It's  a theory 😁
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2018, 09:23:36 am »

RGA has spent nothing here? Safe R.
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2018, 09:26:00 am »

Why have there been so many polls of this race? Can we get some Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio polls instead, please?

I know right
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2018, 06:13:08 pm »

Incumbent governors are usually tough to beat.

Unless you're Tom Corbett or Bruce Rauner.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2018, 06:27:48 pm »

Scott Walker can as well, be defeated
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2018, 07:00:06 pm »

Likely R.
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2018, 07:03:23 pm »

Why have there been so many polls of this race? Can we get some Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio polls instead, please?

I know right

Because Arizona is a Top tier senatorial race to poll, and it is literally common practice to poll all statewide offices.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2018, 08:38:40 pm by Oryxslayer »Logged

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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2018, 08:27:15 pm »

He won't win by this much, but it is rather weird that Garcia is flailing so badly. I thought he was supposed to be one of the strongest recruits for Democrats.
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2018, 10:05:43 pm »

Yeah, looks like this race is over.

I still don't buy the "Kyl bump" theory, though.

McCain sympathy vote, just like Collins voted for Kavanaugh due to Barbara Bush sympathy vote. As Bushes are residents of ME. It's  a theory 😁

It sure is...
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