According to my "add 10 points to every Democrat" mind model*, Garcia is still in this race.
*Except in Nevada, there you add 10 points to the Republican instead.
When you factor in the momentary Kavanaugh bump, the state's Democratic trend, VA-GOV 2017 redux, the high number of undecideds who will all break Democratic, the blue wave and the fact that Arizona is a notoriously difficult state to poll, it’s obvious that Ducey is the underdog and more likely to lose than Heitkamp and Heller.
But muh democrats are supposed to win 70-80 seats, AZ, NV, TX, TN, and MS-Special!
