AK-ASR: Dunleavy +20

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1049418724313366530

BRB, changing this to likely R.

[Politician]

Walker needs to drop out.

[brucejoel99]

Walker needs to drop out.

Poll: Walker > Begich

"Walker needs to drop out"

[ON Progressive]

Two-way races:

Dunleavy 55 (+5 from last poll)
Begich 41 (-6 from last poll)

Dunleavy 53 (-2 from last poll)
Walker 43 (+2 from last poll)

Yeah, this is Safe R. Even if one of them drop out, Dunleavy is ahead comfortably.

[Xing]

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.

[MT Treasurer]

The hot takes about Dunleavy being a "weak/unelectable candidate" because he had much lower name recognition than an incumbent governor and a former but still well-known Senator were always nonsense. Anyway, Lean/Likely R, and good riddance Begich/Walker.

[Skye]

The hot takes about Dunleavy being a "weak/unelectable candidate" because he had much lower name recognition than an incumbent governor and a former but still well-known Senator were always nonsense. Anyway, Lean/Likely R, and good riddance Begich/Walker.

I thought that because Walker was an "Independent" incumbent, Begich a well established political figure, and this being crazy AK, Dunleavy would perform worse than your typical Republican would (and not because he was "weak"). But it seems most Republican leaning voters fell in line for him so that doesn't matter anymore.

[Virginiá]

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.

Regardless of whether it makes a difference to Dunleavy in the end, Begich is still a major dick for just scooching into this race, playing chicken with Walker, and then not dropping out when it doesn't work out for him. In fact, jumping in at all was a dick move entirely.

Without RCV, all he does is split the anti-Republican vote. This is also a good reason why Independent governors really just need to pick a party if their state uses FPTP. You're just asking for some ass to jump in, especially if you're unpopular and they smell blood in the water.

[IceSpear]

#HeresHowBegichCanStillWin

This race was safe R from the second Walker/Begich both decided to stay in the race.

[IceSpear]

Walker needs to drop out.

Why? I thought all the polls showing Dunleavy ahead by double digits were junk. It's just a mere flesh wound. Bad Boy Begich still has this in the bag.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.

[_]

Lmao Begich is such a fool for this whole thing

[pops]

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.

[TheSaint250]

Walker needs to drop out.

Poll: Walker > Begich

"Walker needs to drop out"

The comment is even funnier considering this is the first poll we’ve seen (and I would assume not the last) where Walker is not only leading Begich but also outperforming him in head-to-head scenarios.

[Politician]

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.

Bingo. Third party races are incredibly difficult to poll, and always overestimate one of the party's support.

[TheSaint250]

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.

Bingo. Third party races are incredibly difficult to poll, and always overestimate one of the party's support.

In that Senate election, the Libertarian and Independent candidates both gained compared to that poll.

And the fact that Walker is the governor could make this a different case than usual. Heck, you could argue that Walker outperformed polling in 2014 (yes, lack of a Democrat, but Kansas was the same scenario but opposite outcome).

[Pandaguineapig]

Since Dunleavy appears all but certain to win at this point, I wonder if Trump might be tempted to slide Murkowski into a cabinet position or some other appointment so that the governor can appoint a more conservative replacement?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Walker needs to drop out.

Amen

[Doimper]

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.

Like he has a chance to do that anyway?

[Doimper]

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.

Like he has a chance to do that anyway?

Can we definitively say he couldn't have? Obviously not.