Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 19, 2019, 05:26:21 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ CBS/YouGov Tracker: Sinema +3
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: AZ CBS/YouGov Tracker: Sinema +3  (Read 891 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 728
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 07, 2018, 09:44:21 am »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-races-gop-up-in-texas-tennessee-dems-up-in-arizona-new-jersey-cbs-news-poll/

Sinema 47
McSally 44
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,192
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2018, 09:48:11 am »

looks right
Logged
Roblox
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 315


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2018, 10:22:17 am »

Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,011
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2018, 10:23:47 am »

Yeah, looks like 50 seats is still doable for the Democrats.
Logged
2016
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 855
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2018, 10:56:32 am »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.
Logged
TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 728
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2018, 10:59:45 am »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

And what makes you think this race breaks towards McSally?
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,536
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2018, 11:02:56 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,065


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2018, 11:04:34 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.
Logged
2016
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 855
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2018, 11:07:15 am »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

And what makes you think this race breaks towards McSally?

I'm not saying it will but it could particularly because of Ducey who might drag her over the Finish Line.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,536
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2018, 11:09:04 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

That must of been after the teacher raise bump and McCain death bump. I guess when you combine all those bumps at once...you get one giant kamehameha bump. No wonder he's up double digits.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,281
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2018, 11:09:57 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

Nah he got a “facing a crappy underfunded opponent” bump
Logged
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,130


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2018, 11:15:20 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

Nah he got a “facing a crappy underfunded opponent” bump

He actually did get a Kyl bump. Garcia was closely trailing before Kyl appointment and now he is losing by 10+ in every poll.

Don't ask me why appointing Kyl bumped him up so much... voters are strange. It's just like those Republican voters that voted for Hiral Tipinerni because they were concerned about the teacher strikes (there were actually quite a few of these, believe it or not, even tho a congressman has little to do with this).
Logged
History505
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,499
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2018, 11:35:00 am »

Sinema has been leading consistently with few point leads with McSally leading in one recent poll before this, so this is a pure toss-up.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,993
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2018, 11:42:55 am »

Tossup/Tilt D. I’d rather be Sinema than McSally, but I wouldn’t be overly surprised if McSally won.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,793
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2018, 05:39:48 pm »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

Nah he got a “facing a crappy underfunded opponent” bump

He actually did get a Kyl bump. Garcia was closely trailing before Kyl appointment and now he is losing by 10+ in every poll.

Don't ask me why appointing Kyl bumped him up so much... voters are strange. It's just like those Republican voters that voted for Hiral Tipinerni because they were concerned about the teacher strikes (there were actually quite a few of these, believe it or not, even tho a congressman has little to do with this).

Yeah, it's pretty obvious that McCain's death and/or the Kyl appointment helped Ducey. The "crappy underfunded opponent bump" is only helping him run up the score even more.

Logged
Webnicz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 477
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2018, 05:45:35 pm »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,793
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2018, 05:52:24 pm »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

I wonder if this is why Hillary did better than expected in AZ, particularly when compared to the nation as a whole. Because most ballots were returned before the Comey letter.
Logged
Webnicz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 477
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2018, 06:09:53 pm »
« Edited: October 07, 2018, 06:13:05 pm by Webnicz »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

I wonder if this is why Hillary did better than expected in AZ, particularly when compared to the nation as a whole. Because most ballots were returned before the Comey letter.

That is a fair assessment. By time of the Comey letter, the deadline to mail ballots had been surpassed and most ballots had already been received or were in the mail on their way to the county recorders office.
Logged
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,203
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2018, 06:25:09 pm »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

I wonder if this is why Hillary did better than expected in AZ, particularly when compared to the nation as a whole. Because most ballots were returned before the Comey letter.

That is a fair assessment. By time of the Comey letter, the deadline to mail ballots had been surpassed and most ballots had already been received or were in the mail on their way to the county recorders office.

Then again undecideds probably wait to go to vote on that day and they broke like 3:2 R.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC