AZ CBS/YouGov Tracker: Sinema +3

[IceSpear]

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

Nah he got a “facing a crappy underfunded opponent” bump

He actually did get a Kyl bump. Garcia was closely trailing before Kyl appointment and now he is losing by 10+ in every poll.

Don't ask me why appointing Kyl bumped him up so much... voters are strange. It's just like those Republican voters that voted for Hiral Tipinerni because they were concerned about the teacher strikes (there were actually quite a few of these, believe it or not, even tho a congressman has little to do with this).

Yeah, it's pretty obvious that McCain's death and/or the Kyl appointment helped Ducey. The "crappy underfunded opponent bump" is only helping him run up the score even more.

[IceSpear]

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

I wonder if this is why Hillary did better than expected in AZ, particularly when compared to the nation as a whole. Because most ballots were returned before the Comey letter.