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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN CBS/YouGov Tracker: Blackburn +8
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Author Topic: TN CBS/YouGov Tracker: Blackburn +8  (Read 3648 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #25 on: October 07, 2018, 12:07:03 pm »

Hard to say what's going on there.

I would not trust any polls that were conducted over the last days.

It will take another 1 or 2 weeks until there's a clearer picture again.

Also remember that SurveyMonkey/Axis poll that had Blackburn up 14 points a few months ago and then all the other polls showed Bredesen with a lead ?
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The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #26 on: October 07, 2018, 12:12:36 pm »

Tennessee gonna Tennessee. The caveat of course being the YouGov is trash, but this is just more evidence of the need to create more states.
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MycroftCZ
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« Reply #27 on: October 07, 2018, 12:17:17 pm »

It feels like this race keeps swinging back and forth, 2 polls show Blackburn up and then 2 show Bredesen up. Iím gonna need to see more polls before I move this race out of Tossup. Bredesen is a strong candidate, with a strong campaign. Donít count him out but this race seems to be shifting towards advantage Blackburn.
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UWS
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2018, 12:25:45 pm »

It seems that Kavanaugh's confirmation as well as Bredesen's support to Kavanaugh that cost him the support of major Democratic Super PACs had a huge effect on this race.
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Bennet or Bust
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2018, 12:30:17 pm »

Hard to say what's going on there.

I would not trust any polls that were conducted over the last days.

It will take another 1 or 2 weeks until there's a clearer picture again.

Also remember that SurveyMonkey/Axis poll that had Blackburn up 14 points a few months ago and then all the other polls showed Bredesen with a lead ?

I pretty much agree with this.

Polls are obviously messed up right now due to the Kavanaugh news cycle - Republicans are more enthusiastic right now than they will be in a month, when Kavanaugh will be a distant memory and healthcare will likely dominate the headlines. There's no reason to take any one poll as gospel at any time, but especially not one taken right now.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #30 on: October 07, 2018, 02:06:44 pm »

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This would explain why Bredesen's numbers have taking the turn for the worst the last couple of public polls.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #31 on: October 07, 2018, 02:15:27 pm »

Hard to say what's going on there.

I would not trust any polls that were conducted over the last days.

It will take another 1 or 2 weeks until there's a clearer picture again.

Also remember that SurveyMonkey/Axis poll that had Blackburn up 14 points a few months ago and then all the other polls showed Bredesen with a lead ?

I pretty much agree with this.

Polls are obviously messed up right now due to the Kavanaugh news cycle - Republicans are more enthusiastic right now than they will be in a month, when Kavanaugh will be a distant memory and healthcare will likely dominate the headlines. There's no reason to take any one poll as gospel at any time, but especially not one taken right now.
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Pollster
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« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2018, 02:17:30 pm »

Bear in mind that a lot of the fluctuation in polls could be due to disagreement among pollsters of what the electorate is likely to look like - Tennessee is typically uncompetitive statewide and pollsters have far less experience modeling the electorate in the state, especially in a midterm election where turnout differentials are poised to vary.

The race does appear to be breaking away from Democrats. Bredesen likely needs a new line of attack or a sizeable shift in the environment (possible with the confirmation drama over).
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #33 on: October 07, 2018, 04:19:51 pm »

And to think all the abuse I took here over the past year for saying exactly this would happen. Sadly, I will now accept my accolades.

Congrats Sen. Blackburn.
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« Reply #34 on: October 07, 2018, 04:20:53 pm »

Bredesen goes Bayh Bayh as expected.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #35 on: October 07, 2018, 04:59:45 pm »

I could care less. It wouldn't even be a majority with a corporatist hack like Bredesen who cut healthcare and supports Kavanaugh. Beto would be an actual democrat in the senate(not like Bernie, but he would be decent and certainly 10x better then Bredesen).
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Yank2133
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« Reply #36 on: October 07, 2018, 05:07:21 pm »

I could care less. It wouldn't even be a majority with a corporatist hack like Bredesen who cut healthcare and supports Kavanaugh. Beto would be an actual democrat in the senate(not like Bernie, but he would be decent and certainly 10x better then Bredesen).

You do realize that even though Bredesen is a conservative Democrat, him winning would give Schumer the gavel, which means Democrats could control who gets hearings for judicial appointments?
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« Reply #37 on: October 07, 2018, 05:09:59 pm »

This is a lean Blackburn race.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #38 on: October 07, 2018, 05:11:24 pm »

I could care less. It wouldn't even be a majority with a corporatist hack like Bredesen who cut healthcare and supports Kavanaugh. Beto would be an actual democrat in the senate(not like Bernie, but he would be decent and certainly 10x better then Bredesen).

You do realize that even though Bredesen is a conservative Democrat, him winning would give Schumer the gavel, which means Democrats could control who gets hearings for judicial appointments?
Yes that's why Im pinning my hope on Beto so we win AZ, NV, TX while losing ND giving us a net gain of 2 and control of the senate.. He's polling better then Bredesen and Heitkamp in the last few days. He's not favored right now but neither are Bredesen and Heitkamp.
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #39 on: October 07, 2018, 05:47:50 pm »

And to think all the abuse I took here over the past year for saying exactly this would happen. Sadly, I will now accept my accolades.

Congrats Sen. Blackburn.
I saw this coming from a mile away, lol.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #40 on: October 07, 2018, 05:48:08 pm »

Another former Gov trying to run for Sen, apparently losing, as in case of Thompson and Strickland
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #41 on: October 07, 2018, 06:20:54 pm »

And to think all the abuse I took here over the past year for saying exactly this would happen. Sadly, I will now accept my accolades.

Congrats Sen. Blackburn.
I saw this coming from a mile away, lol.

Really? I saw it coming from a year away. Smiley If I recall correctly, you vehemently disagreed...
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #42 on: October 07, 2018, 06:53:22 pm »

And to think all the abuse I took here over the past year for saying exactly this would happen. Sadly, I will now accept my accolades.

Congrats Sen. Blackburn.
I saw this coming from a mile away, lol.

Really? I saw it coming from a year away. Smiley If I recall correctly, you vehemently disagreed...

Bredesen said he would support Kavanaugh
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Yank2133
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« Reply #43 on: October 07, 2018, 07:00:50 pm »

Taylor Swift getting political? What a time to be alive.

https://twitter.com/lkherman/status/1049081965801029633
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #44 on: October 07, 2018, 07:08:40 pm »

I knew it was too good to be true. Thanks Phil, you put up one hell of a fight, but it was for naught.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #45 on: October 07, 2018, 10:01:33 pm »

Nice to see my future home rejecting the lying Bredesen. 
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Bagel23
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« Reply #46 on: October 07, 2018, 10:23:09 pm »

Nice to see my future home rejecting the lying Bredesen. 

You retiring there?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #47 on: October 07, 2018, 10:38:58 pm »
« Edited: October 07, 2018, 10:46:58 pm by Arkansas Yankee »


I retired in 2011.

Have to move to Tennessee to be closer to family support system for dealing with my Parkinsonís.  I really do not want to go.  I have lived in Arkansas for 41 years.  I feel as if I brought the GOP dominance to Arkansas.  
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #48 on: October 07, 2018, 10:42:04 pm »

Defeating Bredesen will help discourage Beebe from running against Cotton.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #49 on: October 08, 2018, 03:43:03 am »

Some of these TN polls are all over the place.

FOX 9/8 - 9/11  (Blackburn +3)

CNN 9/11 - 9/15 (Bredesen +5)

FOX 9/29 - 10/2  (Blackburn +5)

The 2 FoxNews Polls indicate only a 2pt Jump for Blackburn.   If you use the early September CNN poll as a starting point (rather than the Fox Poll) ... Bredesen would be at +2
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