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June 20, 2019, 04:08:35 pm
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL Southern College: Scott +2
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Author Topic: FL Southern College: Scott +2  (Read 2166 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 08, 2018, 08:37:44 am »

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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2018, 08:45:58 am »

Who?
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History505
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2018, 08:47:04 am »

Tossup.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2018, 08:53:31 am »

Who?

FSC is a private college way outside of Tampa. They're not a very big school so I'm kind of shocked they'd have the resources to fund a polling center. I think this might be their first poll since I cant find anything else from them.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 08:54:25 am »

Likely D, obv
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2018, 08:56:26 am »

The poll is here:

https://cloudup.com/iT5VkRnghBG

So the gap is more like 1.5 points and the GCB is D+<1... ok.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2018, 08:57:02 am »

Pure toss-up.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2018, 09:06:42 am »

Still a tossup, I see.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2018, 09:09:58 am »

538 moved it to toss up today.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2018, 09:12:33 am »

538 moved it to toss up today.

Hasn't it always been a toss-up on 538?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2018, 09:13:06 am »

538 moved it to toss up today.

The winning chance dropped from 61% to 60%, so not a big deal. These ratings change all day. I always had this as a toss-up with Nelson being the slight favorite due to the national environment.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2018, 09:15:33 am »

538 moved it to toss up today.

Hasn't it always been a toss-up on 538?

The model probably showed the race as light blue after the Nelson +4 from PPP. But since the last 2 polls(both from iffy college pollsters) have shown a closer race, its back to white.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2018, 09:17:07 am »

538 moved it to toss up today.

Hasn't it always been a toss-up on 538?
No!  Yesterday they recorded it as lean D
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ajc0918
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2018, 09:26:19 am »

This poll gave respondents the option to choose another candidate. 10% of black voters did so. That bodes well for Nelson as there aren't any other candidates on the ballot (except the option to Write-In).
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Pollster
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2018, 09:36:17 am »

Nelson winning Hispanics 55-21 (13% pick the stupidly included "Other Candidate")
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2018, 10:02:45 am »

Looks like this poll sampled too many white men. Then again, this is a college poll in FL so I have no expectations of remotely good quality.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2018, 11:04:34 am »

I'd like to know more about this pollster, but looks like this race is still a Toss-Up.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2018, 03:52:52 am »

I'd like to know more about this pollster, but looks like this race is still a Toss-Up.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2018, 05:03:16 am »

Astronut Astronot Cry
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2018, 06:32:55 am »

Don't underestimate Rick Scott
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ThatConservativeGuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2018, 04:44:30 pm »

This poll gave respondents the option to choose another candidate. 10% of black voters did so. That bodes well for Nelson as there aren't any other candidates on the ballot (except the option to Write-In).

And there's no chance that a good portion of that 10% stays home?
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2018, 06:03:11 pm »

This poll gave respondents the option to choose another candidate. 10% of black voters did so. That bodes well for Nelson as there aren't any other candidates on the ballot (except the option to Write-In).

And there's no chance that a good portion of that 10% stays home?

If they're coming out for Gillum, chances are they'll vote for Nelson.
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2016
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« Reply #22 on: October 10, 2018, 06:31:08 pm »

I wonder what an impact Hurricane "Michael" will have on this Senate Race. Usually with this kind of Devastation the Governor gets a bump in his Approvals if he responds well to it and Scott has.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2018, 01:11:34 pm »

Is this pollster worth anything?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2018, 01:15:07 pm »

I wonder what an impact Hurricane "Michael" will have on this Senate Race. Usually with this kind of Devastation the Governor gets a bump in his Approvals if he responds well to it and Scott has.

That depends on how big the hurricane is and how much damage it did, and the particulars of the Governor's media presence and what they did/didn't do.

Most of Florida wasn't affected too much by this. Over in my area (Treasure Coast), it wasn't any different than any number of storms we've had all year. So, if I had to guess, it's not really going to help or hurt Scott. At least outside of the areas of the panhandle that got hit hard, and most of that area is already heavily Republican.
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