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Author Topic: AK-ASR: Dunleavy +20  (Read 700 times)
yeah_93
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« on: October 08, 2018, 05:09:30 pm »



BRB, changing this to likely R.
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Clinton Blumenthal Murphy Lamont voter for Trump
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2018, 05:11:45 pm »

Walker needs to drop out.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2018, 05:12:53 pm »

Walker needs to drop out.

Poll: Walker > Begich

"Walker needs to drop out"
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2018, 05:13:30 pm »

Two-way races:

Dunleavy 55 (+5 from last poll)
Begich 41 (-6 from last poll)

Dunleavy 53 (-2 from last poll)
Walker 43 (+2 from last poll)

Yeah, this is Safe R. Even if one of them drop out, Dunleavy is ahead comfortably.
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 05:14:54 pm »

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2018, 05:16:08 pm »

The hot takes about Dunleavy being a "weak/unelectable candidate" because he had much lower name recognition than an incumbent governor and a former but still well-known Senator were always nonsense. Anyway, Lean/Likely R, and good riddance Begich/Walker.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2018, 05:27:00 pm »

The hot takes about Dunleavy being a "weak/unelectable candidate" because he had much lower name recognition than an incumbent governor and a former but still well-known Senator were always nonsense. Anyway, Lean/Likely R, and good riddance Begich/Walker.

I thought that because Walker was an "Independent" incumbent, Begich a well established political figure, and this being crazy AK, Dunleavy would perform worse than your typical Republican would (and not because he was "weak"). But it seems most Republican leaning voters fell in line for him so that doesn't matter anymore.
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2018, 05:32:05 pm »

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.

Regardless of whether it makes a difference to Dunleavy in the end, Begich is still a major dick for just scooching into this race, playing chicken with Walker, and then not dropping out when it doesn't work out for him. In fact, jumping in at all was a dick move entirely.

Without RCV, all he does is split the anti-Republican vote. This is also a good reason why Independent governors really just need to pick a party if their state uses FPTP. You're just asking for some ass to jump in, especially if you're unpopular and they smell blood in the water.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2018, 07:36:44 pm »

#HeresHowBegichCanStillWin

This race was safe R from the second Walker/Begich both decided to stay in the race.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2018, 07:40:06 pm »

Walker needs to drop out.

Why? I thought all the polls showing Dunleavy ahead by double digits were junk. It's just a mere flesh wound. Bad Boy Begich still has this in the bag.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2018, 07:40:47 pm »

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2018, 09:54:50 pm »

Lmao Begich is such a fool for this whole thing
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2018, 11:43:52 pm »

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.
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The Saint
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2018, 06:26:14 am »

Walker needs to drop out.

Poll: Walker > Begich

"Walker needs to drop out"

The comment is even funnier considering this is the first poll we’ve seen (and I would assume not the last) where Walker is not only leading Begich but also outperforming him in head-to-head scenarios.
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Clinton Blumenthal Murphy Lamont voter for Trump
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2018, 06:49:09 am »

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.
Bingo. Third party races are incredibly difficult to poll, and always overestimate one of the party's support.
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The Saint
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2018, 08:34:53 am »

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.
Bingo. Third party races are incredibly difficult to poll, and always overestimate one of the party's support.

In that Senate election, the Libertarian and Independent candidates both gained compared to that poll.

And the fact that Walker is the governor could make this a different case than usual. Heck, you could argue that Walker outperformed polling in 2014 (yes, lack of a Democrat, but Kansas was the same scenario but opposite outcome).
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2018, 10:55:29 am »

Since Dunleavy appears all but certain to win at this point, I wonder if Trump might be tempted to slide Murkowski into a cabinet position or some other appointment so that the governor can appoint a more conservative replacement?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2018, 12:15:43 pm »

Walker needs to drop out.

Amen
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2018, 12:22:28 pm »

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2018, 12:39:29 pm »

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.

Like he has a chance to do that anyway?
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2018, 12:41:50 pm »

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.

Like he has a chance to do that anyway?

Can we definitively say he couldn't have? Obviously not.
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