Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 13, 2019, 07:42:33 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AK-ASR: Dunleavy +20
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: AK-ASR: Dunleavy +20  (Read 854 times)
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,370
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 08, 2018, 05:09:30 pm »



BRB, changing this to likely R.
Logged
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,705
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2018, 05:11:45 pm »

Walker needs to drop out.
Logged
brucejoel99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,049
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2018, 05:12:53 pm »


Poll: Walker > Begich

"Walker needs to drop out"
Logged
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,234
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2018, 05:13:30 pm »

Two-way races:

Dunleavy 55 (+5 from last poll)
Begich 41 (-6 from last poll)

Dunleavy 53 (-2 from last poll)
Walker 43 (+2 from last poll)

Yeah, this is Safe R. Even if one of them drop out, Dunleavy is ahead comfortably.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,342
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 05:14:54 pm »

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.
Logged
Senator Barbara Bollier
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,142
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2018, 05:16:08 pm »

The hot takes about Dunleavy being a "weak/unelectable candidate" because he had much lower name recognition than an incumbent governor and a former but still well-known Senator were always nonsense. Anyway, Lean/Likely R, and good riddance Begich/Walker.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,370
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2018, 05:27:00 pm »

The hot takes about Dunleavy being a "weak/unelectable candidate" because he had much lower name recognition than an incumbent governor and a former but still well-known Senator were always nonsense. Anyway, Lean/Likely R, and good riddance Begich/Walker.

I thought that because Walker was an "Independent" incumbent, Begich a well established political figure, and this being crazy AK, Dunleavy would perform worse than your typical Republican would (and not because he was "weak"). But it seems most Republican leaning voters fell in line for him so that doesn't matter anymore.
Logged
x
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,624
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2018, 05:32:05 pm »

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.

Regardless of whether it makes a difference to Dunleavy in the end, Begich is still a major dick for just scooching into this race, playing chicken with Walker, and then not dropping out when it doesn't work out for him. In fact, jumping in at all was a dick move entirely.

Without RCV, all he does is split the anti-Republican vote. This is also a good reason why Independent governors really just need to pick a party if their state uses FPTP. You're just asking for some ass to jump in, especially if you're unpopular and they smell blood in the water.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,731
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2018, 07:36:44 pm »

#HeresHowBegichCanStillWin

This race was safe R from the second Walker/Begich both decided to stay in the race.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,731
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2018, 07:40:06 pm »


Why? I thought all the polls showing Dunleavy ahead by double digits were junk. It's just a mere flesh wound. Bad Boy Begich still has this in the bag.
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,729
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2018, 07:40:47 pm »

Congrats, Governor-elect Dunleavy. I doubt that Walker would've won, but Bad Boy Begich has handed victory to Dunleavy on a silver platter.
Logged
Not_A_Man
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,094
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2018, 09:54:50 pm »

Lmao Begich is such a fool for this whole thing
Logged
pops
katman46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 746


Political Matrix
E: 4.52, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2018, 11:43:52 pm »

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.
Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,858


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2018, 06:26:14 am »


The comment is even funnier considering this is the first poll we’ve seen (and I would assume not the last) where Walker is not only leading Begich but also outperforming him in head-to-head scenarios.
Logged
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,705
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2018, 06:49:09 am »

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.
Bingo. Third party races are incredibly difficult to poll, and always overestimate one of the party's support.
Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,858


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2018, 08:34:53 am »

Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.
Bingo. Third party races are incredibly difficult to poll, and always overestimate one of the party's support.

In that Senate election, the Libertarian and Independent candidates both gained compared to that poll.

And the fact that Walker is the governor could make this a different case than usual. Heck, you could argue that Walker outperformed polling in 2014 (yes, lack of a Democrat, but Kansas was the same scenario but opposite outcome).
Logged
Pandaguineapig
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,587
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2018, 10:55:29 am »

Since Dunleavy appears all but certain to win at this point, I wonder if Trump might be tempted to slide Murkowski into a cabinet position or some other appointment so that the governor can appoint a more conservative replacement?
Logged
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,249
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2018, 12:15:43 pm »


Amen
Logged
Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2018, 12:22:28 pm »

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,528
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2018, 12:39:29 pm »

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.

Like he has a chance to do that anyway?
Logged
Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2018, 12:41:50 pm »

Sucks that Begich just blew a bunch of political capital that he could've used on unseating Sullivan in 2020.

Like he has a chance to do that anyway?

Can we definitively say he couldn't have? Obviously not.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC