Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:24:02 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Poll
Question: Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 75

Author Topic: Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh?  (Read 3159 times)
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 08, 2018, 09:47:04 PM »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/independents-disapprove-of-democrats-handling-of-the-brett-kavanaugh-nomination-by-a-28-point-margin

New Poll -28 of Independents disapprove of democrats handling of Kavanaugh nomination! This reeks of 2016 all over again. Democrats blowing another election.

Wow!
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,072
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2018, 10:34:06 PM »

As toast as the GOP were after Access Hollywood.

Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2018, 10:43:26 PM »

Conveniently forgetting that Republicans had similar disapproval for their handling of the nomination?
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2018, 10:47:13 PM »


Will the Dems get a Comey Mueller letter?
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,713


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 10:48:27 PM »


Their best realistic hope is that something goes down with Rosenstein.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2018, 10:52:31 PM »

This same poll also shows that -21 of Independents disapprove of Republicans handling of the Kavanaugh nomination. Less than the Democrats, but not that much of a difference. Also amongst those who said they are “very enthusiastic” about the midterms, voters believe the women over Kavanaugh 57-40%.
Logged
Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,490
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2018, 11:06:24 PM »

Pretty sure if Republicans are only leading by single digits in North Dakota and Tennesse they're in for a bad night.
Logged
Former Kentuckian
Cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2018, 11:54:54 PM »

Dems in toast-aray
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2018, 12:18:15 AM »

I see Atlas never tires of feeding trolls. Roll Eyes
Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,400


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2018, 12:22:22 AM »

For the House, most likely not - they've maintained a consistent lead on the generic ballot large enough for them to take over this chamber.

For the Senate, maybe, but it will depend on which direction the polls move in over the next month.
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2018, 12:38:32 AM »

The goalposts of what constitutes a “blue wave” have shifted an astonishing amount. For me, a good night for Democrats is 30-40 in the House and even or better in the Senate.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2018, 12:39:44 AM »

For me a good night would be gaining at least 24 house seats and keeping at least 46 senate seats.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2018, 12:40:10 AM »

The goalposts of what constitutes a “blue wave” have shifted an astonishing amount. For me, a good night for Democrats is 30-40 in the House and even or better in the Senate.

I'd even be happy with 30-40 in the House and an R+1 in the Senate at this point.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2018, 12:41:47 AM »

The goalposts of what constitutes a “blue wave” have shifted an astonishing amount. For me, a good night for Democrats is 30-40 in the House and even or better in the Senate.

If Democrats flipped the House and got a large margin in the House PV, I think I could accept even a net loss of 1-2 seats in the Senate and still call it a wave. I'm more concerned about what the House popular vote is. These days, >= 5-6 points is pretty much a wave. It would be for Republicans, anyway.

Downballot results matter too. A upper-single digits/lower double digit gain of Governors offices and a host of state legislative chamber flips would be really hard to square with anything but a wave.
Logged
warm istanbul
WW2
Rookie
**
Posts: 54


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2018, 12:43:28 AM »

Pretty sure if Republicans are only leading by single digits in North Dakota and Tennesse they're in for a bad night.

Don't be too optimistic now. 538 now gives Dems only a 74% chance of gaining the house, which is less than their prediction for Clinton winning in 2016. If anything I think this sort of hopeless optimism is what keeps dooming the Dems
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2018, 12:48:22 AM »

The goalposts of what constitutes a “blue wave” have shifted an astonishing amount. For me, a good night for Democrats is 30-40 in the House and even or better in the Senate.

If Democrats flipped the House and got a large margin in the House PV, I think I could accept even a net loss of 1-2 seats in the Senate and still call it a wave. I'm more concerned about what the House popular vote is. These days, >= 5-6 points is pretty much a wave. It would be for Republicans, anyway.

Downballot results matter too. A upper-single digits/lower double digit gain of Governors offices and a host of state legislative chamber flips would be really hard to square with anything but a wave.

This is 100% true. There’s really no modern precedent for a party being so disadvantaged in a Senate map while being so heavily favored among the general population — best to take what we can get and celebrate the results of other, less fundamentally weird contests
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2018, 12:48:49 AM »

Pretty sure if Republicans are only leading by single digits in North Dakota and Tennesse they're in for a bad night.

Don't be too optimistic now. 538 now gives Dems only a 74% chance of gaining the house, which is less than their prediction for Clinton winning in 2016. If anything I think this sort of hopeless optimism is what keeps dooming the Dems

I mean, he does have a point. The problem is that expectations for Dems have gotten ridiculously high over the past few months, particularly on this forum. If you told us two years ago that the Tennessee Senate race could be a single digit race, we'd all be expecting a great result overall for Democrats.
Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,400


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2018, 01:31:55 AM »

Pretty sure if Republicans are only leading by single digits in North Dakota and Tennesse they're in for a bad night.

Don't be too optimistic now. 538 now gives Dems only a 74% chance of gaining the house, which is less than their prediction for Clinton winning in 2016. If anything I think this sort of hopeless optimism is what keeps dooming the Dems

Remember that at this point in time in 2016, 538 rated Clinton's chances of winning the presidency at over 80%, which is greater than the probably that they currently give to the Republicans retaining the Senate this year. This means that there is still plenty of time for polls to move in the Democrats' direction for the Senate or in the Republicans' direction for the House. Thus, using this logic, if we shouldn't be too optimistic about the Democrats' chances of taking over the House, we should also not be too optimistic about the Republicans' chances of retaining the Senate, either.
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,268
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2018, 01:32:14 AM »

Why do we need like 20 different threads across five different boards asking the exact same thing?
Logged
TheRocketRaccoon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 761
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2018, 01:55:38 AM »

Why do we need like 20 different threads across five different boards asking the exact same thing?

You know why lmao
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,552
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2018, 03:58:49 AM »

At this point, Dems will definitely lose 4-5 senate seats. The house will break even at best.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,776
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2018, 04:21:58 AM »

No, Dems aren't toast, we won't know until Nov 7th
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2018, 04:27:29 AM »

At this point, Dems will definitely lose 4-5 senate seats. The house will break even at best.

Well, I'll take this prediction very seriously considering your impeccable blemish free track record.

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.


Normally I'd say Polis, but boring white women are doing really well this year, so Kennedy by 2 points.





Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2018, 05:22:16 AM »

Yes.

Well not toast... but the house is a Tossup at best.

Senate is long gone
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,776
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2018, 05:42:44 AM »

Yes.

Well not toast... but the house is a Tossup at best.

Senate is long gone

No it's not, Senate
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 14 queries.