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  AZ - ABC15/OH Predictive Insights: McSally +6
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Author Topic: AZ - ABC15/OH Predictive Insights: McSally +6  (Read 1395 times)
Dark Horse
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« on: October 10, 2018, 12:16:10 am »

McSally - 47%
Sinema - 41%

https://www.abc15.com/news/state/poll-martha-mcsally-gaining-in-senate-race-against-kyrsten-sinema
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Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2018, 12:20:30 am »

Wow
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2018, 12:21:34 am »

Martha McSenator
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xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2018, 12:24:04 am »

This pollster had McSally up 3 before, and was conducted on October 1st and 2nd, but still not great news for Democrats.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2018, 12:27:48 am »

Isn't this the poll with Trump at +10 approval
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Lok
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« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2018, 12:28:32 am »

Where are the crosstabs?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2018, 12:33:26 am »

Not the "fun" answer, but this should be treated as an outlier unless it gets corroboration from another source.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2018, 12:34:57 am »

Not the "fun" answer, but this should be treated as an outlier unless it gets corroboration from another source.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2018, 12:51:27 am »

Hahahahahahahahahahaha. (This poll is bs guys)
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2018, 12:53:08 am »

The odds certainly favor the republicans. Sadly,

When was the last democratic senator Arizona elected?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2018, 12:57:04 am »

Actually, Trump approval is apparently +11 in this poll per their Twitter. So, uh, if you believe thatís the state of the environment, then McSally is in good shape. If not, then, uh, no.

Do you have a link?

https://mobile.twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1048747738773381120

Sinema actually doing 5 points better than Trump approval and the GCB lol

Okay yeah, now this is a good example of an approval rating being absurdly out of line with the national polls, lol. For Trump to be at 55% in Arizona he'd almost certainly need to be above 50% nationally.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2018, 01:05:40 am »

Actually, Trump approval is apparently +11 in this poll per their Twitter. So, uh, if you believe thatís the state of the environment, then McSally is in good shape. If not, then, uh, no.

Do you have a link?

https://mobile.twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1048747738773381120

Sinema actually doing 5 points better than Trump approval and the GCB lol

Okay yeah, now this is a good example of an approval rating being absurdly out of line with the national polls, lol. For Trump to be at 55% in Arizona he'd almost certainly need to be above 50% nationally.

Come to think of it, Sinema doing 5 better than Trump's actual approval in AZ woudn't be an unreasonable end result.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2018, 06:27:34 am »

Trump's approval is +11 here and this is the only pollster that has had McSally up in the last month(+?)
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2018, 06:29:31 am »

Trump's approval is +11 here and this is the only pollster that has had McSally up in the last month(+?)

Yes.
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2016
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« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2018, 08:08:30 am »

The Trendlines working against Democrats here.

Img
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yeah_93
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2018, 08:27:08 am »

Not the "fun" answer, but this should be treated as an outlier unless it gets corroboration from another source.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2018, 08:31:10 am »

Not the "fun" answer, but this should be treated as an outlier unless it gets corroboration from another source.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2018, 08:32:38 am »

Outlier, but this is obviously more winnable for Republicans than NV.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2018, 08:34:54 am »

Not the "fun" answer, but this should be treated as an outlier unless it gets corroboration from another source.
.Vox Populi had McSally ahead
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1J
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« Reply #19 on: October 10, 2018, 08:37:25 am »

Outlier, but this is obviously more winnable for Republicans than NV.

Donít tell FiveThirtyEight that. They think Sinema has a better chance of winning than Rosen.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #20 on: October 10, 2018, 09:02:50 am »

Actually, Trump approval is apparently +11 in this poll per their Twitter. So, uh, if you believe thatís the state of the environment, then McSally is in good shape. If not, then, uh, no.

Do you have a link?

https://mobile.twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1048747738773381120

Sinema actually doing 5 points better than Trump approval and the GCB lol

Okay yeah, now this is a good example of an approval rating being absurdly out of line with the national polls, lol. For Trump to be at 55% in Arizona he'd almost certainly need to be above 50% nationally.

He is, according to Rasmussen. Tongue
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Webnicz
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« Reply #21 on: October 10, 2018, 09:15:11 am »
« Edited: October 10, 2018, 10:32:30 am by Webnicz »

60% landlines?


Cute

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New Frontier
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« Reply #22 on: October 10, 2018, 11:42:55 am »

When was the last democratic senator Arizona elected?
Dennis DeConcini. He served from 1977-1995.

His last election was in 1988. He retired in 1994.

A Democrat hasn't been elected Senator in Arizona for 30 years.
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Young Texan
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« Reply #23 on: October 10, 2018, 04:54:04 pm »

McMartha McSally McWill McBe McThe McNext McSenator McFrom McArizona
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2018, 06:24:10 pm »

Dems were supposed to win AZ Senate and Gov
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