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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  OH: Suffolk University: Sen. Brown (D) +18
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Author Topic: OH: Suffolk University: Sen. Brown (D) +18  (Read 600 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 09, 2018, 11:21:12 pm »

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Suffolk University on 2018-10-08

Summary: D: 54%, R: 36%, I: 0%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2018, 11:24:51 pm »

Likely D race is likely D.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2018, 11:28:52 pm »

Still remains Safe D.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2018, 11:32:17 pm »

LikelySafe D race is likelysafe D.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2018, 11:33:32 pm »

LikelySafe D race is likelysafe D.

"But the poll may have oversampled Democratic voters, who may be more likely to support Issue 1. If the voters surveyed had decided 2016 election, Ohio would have gone to Hillary Clinton by 6 points instead of to Donald Trump by 8. The poll surveyed 500 likely Ohio voters by landline and cell phone from Oct. 4 to 8. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points."

Not safe D.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2018, 11:45:06 pm »

LikelySafe D race is likelysafe D.

"But the poll may have oversampled Democratic voters, who may be more likely to support Issue 1. If the voters surveyed had decided 2016 election, Ohio would have gone to Hillary Clinton by 6 points instead of to Donald Trump by 8. The poll surveyed 500 likely Ohio voters by landline and cell phone from Oct. 4 to 8. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points."

Not safe D.

Other polls have shown Brown up by double digits as well, and have suggested that turnout in Ohio is not going to be anywhere near as Republican-friendly as it was in 2016. Brown is safe.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2018, 06:28:22 am »

LikelySafe D race is likelysafe D.

"But the poll may have oversampled Democratic voters, who may be more likely to support Issue 1. If the voters surveyed had decided 2016 election, Ohio would have gone to Hillary Clinton by 6 points instead of to Donald Trump by 8. The poll surveyed 500 likely Ohio voters by landline and cell phone from Oct. 4 to 8. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points."

Not safe D.

This isn't really a great comparison considering the LV screen will be different this year than 2016, and Dems may be more likely to turn out than that year too.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2018, 03:09:48 pm »

They also had Cordray up 6. Brown is no doubt favored, but I really don’t see him winning by that much. Likely D, though.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2018, 01:50:37 am »

They also had Cordray up 6. Brown is no doubt favored, but I really don’t see him winning by that much. Likely D, though.

Yeah, but another poll had Brown up by 17 at the same time they had DeWine up by like 2-3. I have a hard time explaining that, tbh. Remember that in 2006, Brown defeated incumbent DeWine by 12 points.

I'd really love to see what the county map looks like for a Brown win in the high teens. I imagine he racks up huge wins in the Northeast and along Lake Erie and crushes it in the major cities. A lot of those Southeastern counties he won in 2006 could easily be traded for getting 70% in Franklin County and maybe pushing close to 60% in Hamilton.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 01:54:37 am »

17 minutes after polls close the AP will call this race.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2018, 12:48:45 pm »

17 minutes after polls close the AP will call this race.

Ohio has a Democratic counting bias.
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YH Stands with Sanchez!
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2018, 01:03:51 pm »

This is a Clinton +6 sample.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2018, 03:04:50 pm »

This is a Clinton +6 sample.

Yeah, what were they thinking? I know they don't expect it to be as Republican as 2016 but it should at least be close or a slight Trump lead.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2018, 03:09:26 pm »

This is a Clinton +6 sample.

Yeah, what were they thinking? I know they don't expect it to be as Republican as 2016 but it should at least be close or a slight Trump lead.

They address it, but I'm not sure I believe it:

Quote
"Different voters show up in different elections," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.  "The poll tells us that Democratic leaning independents are more energized this year."
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