WI-Marquette: Walker +1

[KingSweden]

I think this is a tossup, but what is it with this race and ridiculous hot takes on both sides?

The hot takes are hofoid’s life force

[MT Treasurer]

I think this is a tossup, but what is it with this race and ridiculous hot takes on both sides?

People letting their personal feelings get in the way of their predictions/analysis.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I think this is a tossup, but what is it with this race and ridiculous hot takes on both sides?

The hot takes are hofoid’s life force

The only hot takes here are everyone rushing to discredit the partisan composition. Is it hard to believe that timid GOPers are coming home in Wisconsin?

[Virginiá]

Can't argue against the Gold Standard. Let the unskewing begin..

Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.

lolol

trolls gonna troll

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1050081658966290433

[KingSweden]

I think this is a tossup, but what is it with this race and ridiculous hot takes on both sides?

The hot takes are hofoid’s life force

The only hot takes here are everyone rushing to discredit the partisan composition. Is it hard to believe that timid GOPers are coming home in Wisconsin?

I thought it was a Tossup before and that it is a Tossup now

[BudgieForce]

It kind of seems like last month was an outlier and this is more in line with Marquettes previous results.

[Gass3268]

Democrats are still more enthused to vote:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1050086123526074370

[Gass3268]

Last poll will come out on 10/31 in 3 weeks (6 days before the election).

[2016]

Democrats are still more enthused to vote:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1050086123526074370

Republicans cut the Enthusiasm Gap from 11 to 7....and I expect that to be narrowed even further over the coming four weeks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

oh, wonderful

[MT Treasurer]

Even if Walker loses, I’d say it’s pretty obvious that Republicans have a much better chance of winning WI than PA/MN in 2020, not that that’s necessarily saying much.

[Scottholes 2.0]

It is somewhat odd that MU is the only poll that has had good numbers for Walker this cycle, though. No other poll but MU has shown Walker leading yet.

[KingSweden]

Even if Walker loses, I’d say it’s pretty obvious that Republicans have a much better chance of winning WI than PA/MN in 2020, not that that’s necessarily saying much.

I don’t think anyone has disputed that, have they?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It is somewhat odd that MU is the only poll that has had good numbers for Walker this cycle, though. No other poll but MU has shown Walker leading yet.

I'd expect the Gold Standard not to imitate all the other pretenders.

[Xing]

Even if Walker loses, I’d say it’s pretty obvious that Republicans have a much better chance of winning WI than PA/MN in 2020, not that that’s necessarily saying much.

MN, sure, but PA? Why does everyone think that a state that voted 0.1% to the right of PA after voting to the left of it twice in a row can't possibly vote to the left of PA in 2020? And I really don't think that the 2018 results will have that much impact on the 2020 elections.

[IceSpear]

I think this is a tossup, but what is it with this race and ridiculous hot takes on both sides?

People letting their personal feelings get in the way of their predictions/analysis.

This.

Toss up -> Toss up

[Pericles]

Ugh, I don't even need to see the posts to know this thread has been a steamy stinking pile of bullsh**t #hottakes.

[Vosem]

Would Anderson really get 5% of the vote?  I doubt it.

He received 3% in the 2016 Senate race, and Gary Johnson received 4% in Wisconsin for president, so it's not like 5% would be a huge outlier (interestingly, Wisconsin was also home of a rare serious Libertarian effort in 2002 to win the governor's race; their candidate won a full 11% and carried 2 counties). 5% seems kind of high for a race between what are basically Generic Wisconsin R and Generic Wisconsin D in 2018, though; I'd imagine most everyone in the state knows which of those they prefer and the race is basically a turnout game.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker has a resiliency to win Governorhip elections, WI is still a purple state

[Gass3268]

Would Anderson really get 5% of the vote?  I doubt it.

He received 3% in the 2016 Senate race, and Gary Johnson received 4% in Wisconsin for president, so it's not like 5% would be a huge outlier (interestingly, Wisconsin was also home of a rare serious Libertarian effort in 2002 to win the governor's race; their candidate won a full 11% and carried 2 counties). 5% seems kind of high for a race between what are basically Generic Wisconsin R and Generic Wisconsin D in 2018, though; I'd imagine most everyone in the state knows which of those they prefer and the race is basically a turnout game.

The Libertarian in 2002 was Tommy Thompson's brother.

[Vosem]

Would Anderson really get 5% of the vote?  I doubt it.

He received 3% in the 2016 Senate race, and Gary Johnson received 4% in Wisconsin for president, so it's not like 5% would be a huge outlier (interestingly, Wisconsin was also home of a rare serious Libertarian effort in 2002 to win the governor's race; their candidate won a full 11% and carried 2 counties). 5% seems kind of high for a race between what are basically Generic Wisconsin R and Generic Wisconsin D in 2018, though; I'd imagine most everyone in the state knows which of those they prefer and the race is basically a turnout game.

The Libertarian in 2002 was Tommy Thompson's brother.

I know -- typically when a Libertarian does really well there's a "star candidate" vibe to them (Gary Johnson, Joe Miller, Ed Thompson and so forth are all prominent dissident GOPers; dissident Democrats don't typically run as Libertarians). But it's still noteworthy that Wisconsin is a state that's been receptive-ish to that sort of campaign in the past.