The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton says he doesn't think a presidential bid is the best way he could serve the country right now.

Here's the relevant exchange:

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden talks 2020 in Michigan:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/biden-age-legitimate-issue/index.html

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He also said this about his age:

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If Biden's really being honest (and he may not be, since presidential candidates downplay their presidential ambitions all the time), then he really doesn't sound that likely to run.  He's given himself a January deadline, but still talks about grief over Beau holding him back in some way?  And that's going to change in three months?

[NewYorkExpress]

Biden talks 2020 in Michigan:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/biden-age-legitimate-issue/index.html

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He also said this about his age:

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If Biden's really being honest (and he may not be, since presidential candidates downplay their presidential ambitions all the time), then he really doesn't sound that likely to run.  He's given himself a January deadline, but still talks about grief over Beau holding him back in some way?  And that's going to change in three months?

I do think Sanders is more likely to run, but I suspect Biden will be one of the last candidates to enter the race, as he doesn't really need to make a decision right away, with near universal name recognition, and you could argue that if there are early debates, that not attending those, at least until August/September, could be a benefit rather than a curse for him.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden talks 2020 in Michigan:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/biden-age-legitimate-issue/index.html

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He also said this about his age:

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If Biden's really being honest (and he may not be, since presidential candidates downplay their presidential ambitions all the time), then he really doesn't sound that likely to run.  He's given himself a January deadline, but still talks about grief over Beau holding him back in some way?  And that's going to change in three months?

I think Biden wants someone else to run who can beat Trump and that he will only enter if he comes to the conclusion, he's the only one with a serious, or the best, shot.

[Xeuma]

Are the Castros even good candidates??? They haven't ran statewide for anything, right? I don't understand the hype.

[UWS]

Julian Castro says he's likely running.

Okay, so Cornyn’s senate seat should be Likely R or even Safe R in 2020.

Not necessairly. If Joaquin Castro runs, Cornyn is in just as much danger, and if Beto loses and tries again in 2020, he'd probably have a good shot at beating Cornyn as well.

Maybe, but it would be difficult because it’s Texas.

[Mr. Morden]

This story's from this past weekend (so when they say "Tuesday", they mean last week Tuesday), but just noticed it now:

https://www.loudountimes.com/news/political-action-committee-encouraging-former-gov-mcauliffe-to-run-for/article_0cae168e-d090-11e8-b173-97701f270ab5.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Harris's people aren't shy with Politico about the fact that they're thinking about 2020 strategy:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/kamala-harris-2020-strategy-908818

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[WV222]

Avenatti making the moves

With this- we have Avenatti, Harris, Warren, and Castro all basically in, Buttigieg and Biden to make decisions around the new year, and with all the people rumored, only Moulton is basically out.

[Kylar]

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/julian-castro-says-hes-likely-to-challenge-trump-in-2020
Seems to me that Julian is in...I don't know what to think about this.

[DevinM626]

Gillibrand visiting New Hampshire

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Gillibrand-trip-to-Concord-this-week-sparks-2020-speculation-20923118

[Spiffy]

Joe Kennedy going back to New Hampshire

https://twitter.com/adamsextonwmur/status/1052665540496506885?s=21

[Joey1996]

Joe Kennedy going back to New Hampshire

https://twitter.com/adamsextonwmur/status/1052665540496506885?s=21

Nah he isn't running. If anything he replaces Warren if she plans on retiring from the Senate after running for president

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/julian-castro-says-hes-likely-to-challenge-trump-in-2020
Seems to me that Julian is in...I don't know what to think about this.

I actually think that Castro will do better then people expect. He'll probably be the only Hispanic at the big debate. (sorry but Virgin Garcetti is going to be on the edge of the undercard debate) No way he's the nominee though. I figure he bets big on Nevada but drops out afterwards.

[henster]

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/julian-castro-says-hes-likely-to-challenge-trump-in-2020
Seems to me that Julian is in...I don't know what to think about this.

I actually think that Castro will do better then people expect. He'll probably be the only Hispanic at the big debate. (sorry but Virgin Garcetti is going to be on the edge of the undercard debate) No way he's the nominee though. I figure he bets big on Nevada but drops out afterwards.

I don't see him making the main debate, which will kill his campaign. Same for Garcetti, most who end up in the undercard debate will drop out before Iowa because almost none of them will make it to the main one. Only Fiorina made it out of the undercard and only because the rules had to be changed for her.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand is asked about 2020 in this interview, and she changes the subject:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/kirsten-gillibrand-on-kavanaugh-fallout-and-her-2020-plans.html

New Garcetti interview here with some 2020 talk:

https://www.recode.net/2018/10/17/17987870/eric-garcetti-2020-presidential-race-democrats-donald-trump-kara-swisher-recode-decode-podcast

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/julian-castro-says-hes-likely-to-challenge-trump-in-2020
Seems to me that Julian is in...I don't know what to think about this.

I actually think that Castro will do better then people expect. He'll probably be the only Hispanic at the big debate. (sorry but Virgin Garcetti is going to be on the edge of the undercard debate) No way he's the nominee though. I figure he bets big on Nevada but drops out afterwards.

I don't see him making the main debate, which will kill his campaign. Same for Garcetti, most who end up in the undercard debate will drop out before Iowa because almost none of them will make it to the main one.

Well, the new CNN poll had Garcetti at 2%.....which put him ahead of Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Patrick (Castro wasn't included as an option):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303924.0

I think the top 5 names in that poll (Biden / Sanders / Harris / Warren / Booker) are *probably* very solid bets to make the top tier debate stage, should they run.  (But maybe only 3 or 4 out of the 5 of them will run.). Beyond that....I have no idea.  Who else is going to fill up those remaining 6 or 7 spots on the debate stage?  It could be nearly anyone, since so many of the other candidates are pretty unknown to the average voter.  People have predicted that, for example, Gillibrand would emerge as a top tier candidate.  But all the polling indicates that she's still pretty unknown outside of New York.  Maybe that'll change, and maybe it won't.  But I wouldn't rule out a Castro or a Garcetti making it to the 1st tier debate stage.  It'll probably only take about 2% support to get there.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden on his decision:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-explains-how-he-will-decide-whether-to-run-for-president-2020/

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Again, he's still referencing grief over Beau potentially holding him back all these years later.  And "what I want to do with the rest of my life".  That seems perfectly reasonable for someone who's almost 80.  If he's elected president in 2020, then he's potentially going to be spending his final years in which he's of sound mind and body as POTUS.  Does he really want to do that?  If he legitimately doubts that now, then I'm skeptical of that changing within the next few months.

Also, Buttigieg:

https://twitter.com/NicoleSganga/status/1052013109014093824

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Beto O’Rourke On Running For President In 2020: ‘It’s A Definitive No’

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[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg’s doing events in South Carolina:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/politics/michael-bloomberg-trade-policy-2020/index.html

Evan McMullin was in Iowa a couple of days ago.  Other potential 2020ers visiting Iowa in the coming weeks include Hickenlooper, Sanders, Harris, Bullock, and Sasse:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/16/iowa-stumping-2020-caucus-midterms-donald-trump-cory-booker-mike-pence-bernie-sanders-kamala-harris/1658184002/

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Evan McMullin was in Iowa a couple of days ago.  Other potential 2020ers visiting Iowa in the coming weeks include Hickenlooper, Sanders, Harris, Bullock, and Sasse:

Will McMullin run as an independent again or as a Republican?

[RogueBeaver]

Philippe Reines says while Hillary's unlikely to run again, the chance isn't zero.

[Mr. Morden]

Evan McMullin was in Iowa a couple of days ago.  Other potential 2020ers visiting Iowa in the coming weeks include Hickenlooper, Sanders, Harris, Bullock, and Sasse:

Will McMullin run as an independent again or as a Republican?

I've speculated that he might consider run in the Republican primary if all of the potential candidates with experience in elected office, like Kasich, Sasse, etc., end up chickening out and don't run (which is an underrated possibility....some seem to think Kasich running is a foregone conclusion, but I don't).  I think *someone* will end up running against Trump in the primaries, so if not a "real" politician, then someone like McMullin (or Kristol  ).

[Mr. Morden]

All of these potential 2020ers will be doing events in New Hampshire within the next 10 days:

Booker, Avenatti, Castro, McAuliffe and Gillibrand:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/On-The-Trail-20964449

Actually, scratch that last one.  Gillibrand’s already there.  And she was asked about 2020 but dodged:

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I love how she says "I'm focused on my own Senate race" while campaigning in an early primary state for someone else.

[Mr. Morden]

New NYT story about the fact that multiple women will be running in ’20, which includes another non-denial from Gillibrand:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/democrats-women-president-2020.html

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