The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

This story indicates that, despite public denials, O’Rourke has in fact been talking to at least one person in his inner circle about the possibility of launching a presidential campaign:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/beto-orourke-2020-democratic-presidential-race/index.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In other news, Charlie Baker says he “absolutely” plans to serve out his new term as governor:

https://www.necn.com/news/politics/Massachusetts-Governor-Charlie-Baker-Republican-Re-Election-2nd-Term-Agenda-499941742.html

[Harlow]

In other news, Charlie Baker says he “absolutely” plans to serve out his new term as governor:

https://www.necn.com/news/politics/Massachusetts-Governor-Charlie-Baker-Republican-Re-Election-2nd-Term-Agenda-499941742.html

Of course. There's no room for Charlie in the national GOP.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand's on Colbert tonight, and she apparently said "I will give it a long, hard thought, consideration" about 2020:

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/1060767991279816706

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/1060768377784938497

[Mr. Morden]

Swalwell will run.

Here's the relevant quote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's definitely evidence in favor, but it's still just one source.  What does "plans to run" mean here?  He'll announce his candidacy in four months or something?  If so, that's plenty of time for him to change his mind.  Would still put him in the "likely, but not a done deal yet" category.

EDIT: Oh, and the story also notes that Swalwell will be in Iowa this weekend.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand's on Colbert tonight, and she apparently said "I will give it a long, hard thought, consideration" about 2020:

Here's the video of her answer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdMyEeEJpAc&t=6m25s

[Spiffy]

Swalwell will run.

Here's the relevant quote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's definitely evidence in favor, but it's still just one source.  What does "plans to run" mean here?  He'll announce his candidacy in four months or something?  If so, that's plenty of time for him to change his mind.  Would still put him in the "likely, but not a done deal yet" category.

EDIT: Oh, and the story also notes that Swalwell will be in Iowa this weekend.

He went on Fox and basically said he was running too.

[Mr. Morden]

Howard Schultz hires PR team, including Steve Schmidt:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/ex-starbucks-ceo-howard-schultz-builds-elite-pr-team-as-he-mulls-white-house-run.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

de Blasio on 2020:

https://www.silive.com/news/2018/11/de-blasio-for-president-in-2020-he-isnt-ruling-it-out.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Flake on 2020:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/flake-2020-trump-980914

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[lfromnj]

In other news, Charlie Baker says he “absolutely” plans to serve out his new term as governor:

https://www.necn.com/news/politics/Massachusetts-Governor-Charlie-Baker-Republican-Re-Election-2nd-Term-Agenda-499941742.html

Of course. There's no room for Charlie in the national GOP.

yeah hogan can probably go somewhere as he is an actual moderate republican while Baker is literally a democrat in all but name.

[Mr. Morden]

The NYT has a new story about the Democratic field, with several new tidbits:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/us/politics/democrats-2020-president.html

Some bullet points:

-Bullock was in New York this week, post-election, meeting with big $ donors.

-On the phone with one of the victorious candidates this week, Biden was asked about his own plans re: 2020, and “did not sound overly enthused, responding that he was in no rush to have that discussion”.

-Harris is seen by allies as likely to announce “early in next year”, though after her book tour in January (the book comes out on Jan. 8th).

-Warren may conceivably launch before the end of December(!).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[tosk]

Swalwell will run.

Here's the relevant quote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's definitely evidence in favor, but it's still just one source.  What does "plans to run" mean here?  He'll announce his candidacy in four months or something?  If so, that's plenty of time for him to change his mind.  Would still put him in the "likely, but not a done deal yet" category.

EDIT: Oh, and the story also notes that Swalwell will be in Iowa this weekend.

He went on Fox and basically said he was running too.

saw that too-- sounds like a candidate to me. we'll see.

[Mr. Morden]

Swalwell will run.

Here's the relevant quote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's definitely evidence in favor, but it's still just one source.  What does "plans to run" mean here?  He'll announce his candidacy in four months or something?  If so, that's plenty of time for him to change his mind.  Would still put him in the "likely, but not a done deal yet" category.

EDIT: Oh, and the story also notes that Swalwell will be in Iowa this weekend.

He went on Fox and basically said he was running too.

Is this what you're referring to?:

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5859522422001/?#sp=show-clips

Because what he said there is "I'm looking at it", which isn't really new.  Plenty of the other potential candidates say the same thing all the time.  Again, I'd say he's likely, but I wouldn't take this as the last word.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, while that NYT story says that Warren may very well launch her campaign very early, publicly she says that she has no timeline in mind:

http://www.lowellsun.com/todaysheadlines/ci_32261368/warren-no-timeline-presidential-run-decision

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Deval Patrick will do an event in South Carolina next week:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/midterm-elections-return-democrats-to-a-debate-over-their-2020-presidential-choice-passion-or-pragmatism/2018/11/10/b1312dce-e44d-11e8-b759-3d88a5ce9e19_story.html?utm_term=.a8a8bba2519a

[Mr. Morden]

Al Sharpton’s group, the National Action Network, is holidng a Legislative and Policy Conference in DC on Tuesday and Wednesday:

https://nationalactionnetwork.net/newnews/schedule-for-nan-and-activists-to-convene-post-midterms/

Among those participating are Klobuchar, Warren, Harris, Swalwell, Sanders, Gillibrand, Booker, and Brown.

In other news, Cuomo gives a non-denial on 2020:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/416144-ny-governor-non-committal-on-2020-presidential-run-im-focused-on-the

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Inslee on 2020:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/mixed-midterm-results-for-gov-jay-inslee-as-he-weighs-2020-plans/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Maybe I'm just following this too closely now and not seeing it, or maybe it's still too early, but I'm wondering... where are all the nobodies? Give or take a Deval Patrick, most potential candidates in this thread are currently holding office (or have done so until very recently). Look at previous primaries, there's always nobodies at the bottom of the heap. People who've been out of office for a while, with very little name recognition. They don't do well. They'll withdraw before votes are cast, or after receiving a dozen votes. Mike Gravel, Lincoln Chafee, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore... and so on. Who's going to fill that spot in 2020? You'd think maybe we'd have more people like that seizing their chance and going for it. Again - maybe I'm following it too closely and just not recognizing it. But I'm not seeing it. Where are the 0.1%ers?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Maybe I'm just following this too closely now and not seeing it, or maybe it's still too early, but I'm wondering... where are all the nobodies? Give or take a Deval Patrick, most potential candidates in this thread are currently holding office (or have done so until very recently). Look at previous primaries, there's always nobodies at the bottom of the heap. People who've been out of office for a while, with very little name recognition. They don't do well. They'll withdraw before votes are cast, or after receiving a dozen votes. Mike Gravel, Lincoln Chafee, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore... and so on. Who's going to fill that spot in 2020? You'd think maybe we'd have more people like that seizing their chance and going for it. Again - maybe I'm following it too closely and just not recognizing it. But I'm not seeing it. Where are the 0.1%ers?

John Delaney comes to mind.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Maybe I'm just following this too closely now and not seeing it, or maybe it's still too early, but I'm wondering... where are all the nobodies? Give or take a Deval Patrick, most potential candidates in this thread are currently holding office (or have done so until very recently). Look at previous primaries, there's always nobodies at the bottom of the heap. People who've been out of office for a while, with very little name recognition. They don't do well. They'll withdraw before votes are cast, or after receiving a dozen votes. Mike Gravel, Lincoln Chafee, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore... and so on. Who's going to fill that spot in 2020? You'd think maybe we'd have more people like that seizing their chance and going for it. Again - maybe I'm following it too closely and just not recognizing it. But I'm not seeing it. Where are the 0.1%ers?

John Delaney.

Andrew Yang, if you count his brief experience with the Obama admin. as experience.

Who knows, maybe Lincoln Chafee.

Martin O'Malley.

I'm thinking a random Southern State DINO from the House may run too.

[CherokeeDem]

Maybe I'm just following this too closely now and not seeing it, or maybe it's still too early, but I'm wondering... where are all the nobodies? Give or take a Deval Patrick, most potential candidates in this thread are currently holding office (or have done so until very recently). Look at previous primaries, there's always nobodies at the bottom of the heap. People who've been out of office for a while, with very little name recognition. They don't do well. They'll withdraw before votes are cast, or after receiving a dozen votes. Mike Gravel, Lincoln Chafee, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore... and so on. Who's going to fill that spot in 2020? You'd think maybe we'd have more people like that seizing their chance and going for it. Again - maybe I'm following it too closely and just not recognizing it. But I'm not seeing it. Where are the 0.1%ers?

Well Ojeda just announced he's running so there's your answer.

https://theintercept.com/2018/11/11/richard-ojeda-2020-president/

[Mr. Morden]

Gabbard on 2020:

https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/international/2018/11/12/fgn25-us-gabbard-ld%20presidency.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Spiffy]

Sherrod Brown’s wife

https://twitter.com/connieschultz/status/1062009289429209088?s=21

[Mr. Morden]

Sherrod Brown’s wife

https://twitter.com/connieschultz/status/1062009289429209088?s=21

From the article that links to:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In other news, Politico says Booker, Harris, Hickenlooper, Sanders, and Warren are all looking for staff to man their potential presidential campaigns:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/12/2020-democrats-campaign-staff-983467

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[President Johnson]

Haven't seen this in the 2020 board:

Last Friday, Steve Bullock was on Morning Joe and talked about the bad influence of money in politics and about showing up in rural areas to make up ground for Democrats. Still declined to answer whether he'll run: Video

The guy comes over as likeable, has definitely a message and a strategy how to win.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Haven't seen this in the 2020 board:

Last Friday, Steve Bullock was on Morning Joe and talked about the bad influence of money in politics and about showing up in rural areas to make up ground for Democrats. Still declined to answer whether he'll run: Video

The guy comes over as likeable, has definitely a message and a strategy how to win.

I'm a big Steve Bullock guy. 20% of Trump voters in Montana also voted for him. He's pro-gun, but pro-common sense, pro-net neutrality, runs on a platform of unity across all ideological leanings, comes across as Bernie-esque in terms of potential appeal minus the whole s-word thing.

Because of all that, though, he won't win. It's a shame that the Democrats will end up nominating another candidate who plays the I'm Not Trump/identity politics card, only to get crushed in the states that are more willing to support a candidate like Bullock.

[President Johnson]

Haven't seen this in the 2020 board:

Last Friday, Steve Bullock was on Morning Joe and talked about the bad influence of money in politics and about showing up in rural areas to make up ground for Democrats. Still declined to answer whether he'll run: Video

The guy comes over as likeable, has definitely a message and a strategy how to win.

I'm a big Steve Bullock guy. 20% of Trump voters in Montana also voted for him. He's pro-gun, but pro-common sense, pro-net neutrality, runs on a platform of unity across all ideological leanings, comes across as Bernie-esque in terms of potential appeal minus the whole s-word thing.

Because of all that, though, he won't win. It's a shame that the Democrats will end up nominating another candidate who plays the I'm Not Trump/identity politics card, only to get crushed in the states that are more willing to support a candidate like Bullock.

Couldn't agree more. Steve Bullock with a female and possibly minority running mate like Kamala Harris would be pretty tough for Trump. I still hope the Democrats are smart enough.

[Comrade Funk]

Haven't seen this in the 2020 board:

Last Friday, Steve Bullock was on Morning Joe and talked about the bad influence of money in politics and about showing up in rural areas to make up ground for Democrats. Still declined to answer whether he'll run: Video

The guy comes over as likeable, has definitely a message and a strategy how to win.

I'm a big Steve Bullock guy. 20% of Trump voters in Montana also voted for him. He's pro-gun, but pro-common sense, pro-net neutrality, runs on a platform of unity across all ideological leanings, comes across as Bernie-esque in terms of potential appeal minus the whole s-word thing.

Because of all that, though, he won't win. It's a shame that the Democrats will end up nominating another candidate who plays the I'm Not Trump/identity politics card, only to get crushed in the states that are more willing to support a candidate like Bullock.

Tell us who is playing that card.