The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Spiffy]

https://twitter.com/firstdogtruman/status/1083773066994479104?s=21

[Mr. Morden]

The Washington Examiner says don’t expect any GOP challengers to declare before June:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/republicans-plotting-to-oppose-trump-in-2020-waiting-for-mueller-and-june-before-pulling-trigger

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Weirdly, it sounds like Team Kasich is leaning more towards an Indy bid than a GOP primary bid because they don’t want to play spoiler???  Don’t they have that backwards?

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Looks like McAuliffe said about a week ago that there’s a 50% chance that he’s going to run:

https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari-melber/watch/clinton-buddy-mcauliffe-50-chance-i-ll-challenge-trump-in-2020-1420321347679

And while I’m talking McAuliffe, looks like he’s non-committal on whether he would self-fund:

https://freebeacon.com/politics/mcauliffe-wont-say-whether-he-would-self-fund-potential-2020-campaign-accept-corporate-pac-money/

Bloomberg on the other hand, does say that he’ll self-fund:

https://abcnews.go.com/beta-story-container/Politics/wireStory/bloomberg-hed-fund-2020-white-house-bid-60315610

And finally, Andrew Cuomo still not running:

https://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/cuomo-insists-he-will-not-join-presidential-race/article_5392ddd7-e56d-537c-971f-a2534adced0c.html

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[beaver2.0]

Maybe Kasich wants to throw the election?  I think even just being in the race gives him a pretty good chance of that.  And there’s some sense in not getting involved in a messy primary and just jumping in as an independent.

I wonder who he’d pick as his running-mate?  I sort of think it’d be some Democrat, though obviously someone out of office and probably not a Governor.

[UWS]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

[aaroncd107]

Maybe Kasich wants to throw the election?  I think even just being in the race gives him a pretty good chance of that.  And there’s some sense in not getting involved in a messy primary and just jumping in as an independent.

I wonder who he’d pick as his running-mate?  I sort of think it’d be some Democrat, though obviously someone out of office and probably not a Governor.

Mattis and Lieberman would both be interesting and make sense.

[Roll Roons]

Maybe Kasich wants to throw the election?  I think even just being in the race gives him a pretty good chance of that.  And there’s some sense in not getting involved in a messy primary and just jumping in as an independent.

I wonder who he’d pick as his running-mate?  I sort of think it’d be some Democrat, though obviously someone out of office and probably not a Governor.

Mattis and Lieberman would both be interesting and make sense.

Mattis would bring a ton of credibility to the ticket, but I doubt he'd run against his former boss. Lieberman seems more likely, considering that he even endorsed McCain in '08.

[JG]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.

[OneJ]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.

[ON Progressive]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.

[Big Boy Beto]

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

[Lognog]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.

[Roll Roons]

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

Brown appeals to blue collar workers just as much as Biden, and he has a lot less baggage. Only thing is that he would give up his Senate seat and it may be tough for Democrats to get it back after DeWine appoints a replacement.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a recap of Inslee's Nevada appearance today, with a quote from him about his 2020 decision:

https://bangordailynews.com/2019/01/12/national-politics/democratic-governors-mayors-could-crowd-2020-presidential-primaries/

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Historically, sitting governors are often among the last of the presidential candidates to formally declare their candidacy (just look at the 2016 election cycle timeline).  FHQ's timeline of state legislative sessions:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2019/01/invisibleprimary-visible-primary.html

shows that Washington's legislative session this year ends on April 28th, while Montana's ends on May 1st.  You might expect Inslee and Bullock to then wait until May to start their presidential campaigns, but it looks like Inslee at least isn't going to wait that long.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

When has Biden won in an election in a state with blue collar workers? Being Obama’s second banana doesn’t count and is irrelevant. Most people couldn’t pick the VP out in a lineup. Biden is a perpetual loser in presidential politics. And white blue collar workers are not the only key to win back the White House. Some of you continuously act like other demographics don’t live in these states.

[Mr. Morden]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

This is a misleading recap if you read the Axios story that this is based on:

https://www.axios.com/1-election-thing-joe-biden-is-running-most-days-1547307957-62bbf645-69e3-4df5-bad3-1f8da28670f2.html

That story starts out by saying that Biden has told some people he's running, but then ends with:

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So it sounds like more of a muddle, with no clear conclusion as to whether he's really decided or not.

[Mr. Morden]

Brown:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/11/sherrod-brown-trump-slayer-heres-his-big-idea/?utm_term=.d927aea83e3e

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[nolesfan2011]

Gillibrand is in (not that anyone expected different)

"In A Private Meeting, Kirsten Gillibrand Signals She Will Run For President"

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/darrensands/gillibrand-private-meeting-women-2020-president

[Frodo]

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

Oh, I think he can win the primaries, especially if his more progressive opposition is split between so many other candidates.

Though I wonder during the general election campaign if he can end up like Hillary Clinton in 2016 when certain key constituencies didn't show up in the required numbers in key states, despite winning the overall popular vote.  He could make up WWC support in some states, but fall short with other constituencies (like young people and women) in others.  

[Grassroots]

Gillibrand is in (not that anyone expected different)

"In A Private Meeting, Kirsten Gillibrand Signals She Will Run For President"

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/darrensands/gillibrand-private-meeting-women-2020-president

ew

[UWS]

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

Oh, I think he can win the primaries, especially if his more progressive opposition is split between so many other candidates.

Though I wonder during the general election campaign if he can end up like Hillary Clinton in 2016 when certain key constituencies didn't show up in the required numbers in key states, despite winning the overall popular vote.  He could make up WWC support in some states, but fall short with other constituencies (like young people and women) in others.  

Yep. His more progressive opposition will be divided between Sanders and Warren, which makes me believe that he may win the New Hampshire primary. So he would win more easily.

That’s how moderate Republicans like John McCain and Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination, respectively in 2008 and 2012 because their more conservative opposition was divided between Romney and Huckabee in 2008 and between Gingrich and Santorum in 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand is in (not that anyone expected different)

"In A Private Meeting, Kirsten Gillibrand Signals She Will Run For President"

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/darrensands/gillibrand-private-meeting-women-2020-president

Quote from that story:

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"Possibly in January."  My guess is she announces it much earlier than the end of January.  Probably within the next week, IMHO, based on the news coming out of Team Gillibrand these last few days.  I mean, she's apparently made these hires for her proto-presidential campaign, and even rented office space.  Plus according to this story, she's (privately) telling groups of people outsider her immediate orbit that she's decided to run.

This looks like someone who's going to announce something in just a few days.  It would make sense for her to announce her exploratory committee before she goes on that trip to Iowa (which she's reportedly going to make next weekend.)

[Skye]

Gillibrand looks to me like someone who will try to play the long game, who will be a constant but reduced presence there until everyone else collapses. Something like Kasich. Might not be a good plan anyways. That or she'll be another Scott Walker.

[Doimper]

Gillibrand looks to me like someone who will try to play the long game, who will be a constant but reduced presence there until everyone else collapses. Something like Kasich. Might not be a good plan anyways. That or she'll be another Scott Walker.

The whole point of a primary is to win big early on and gain "momentum" (at least in theory). The fact that most of the recent presidential primaries have dragged on has made people forget that they're often decided by Super Tuesday or earlier.

[Shadows]

Supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) held over 400 house parties in all 50 states and Puerto Rico on Saturday afternoon calling on Sanders to run for president again in 2020. Saturday’s show of force, arranged by Organizing for Bernie ― an upstart group founded by Sanders campaign alumni and grassroots activists ― demonstrated one of the senator’s biggest advantages if he decides to return to the ring: a network of supporters already familiar with his message and skilled in do-it-yourself internet organizing.

Although Sanders and his campaign team were not directly involved in Saturday’s events, the house parties were co-sponsored by People for Bernie and Our Revolution, the latter group created to carry on the mission of Sanders’ 2016 campaign. The livestream, which was broadcast by progressive media upstart Act.tv, had attracted over 100,000 views as of Saturday evening.

Source -  Huffington Post