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| | |-+  The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3
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Author Topic: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3  (Read 47655 times)
MycroftCZ
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« Reply #975 on: January 11, 2019, 09:24:23 pm »

I like how it's not red, white, and blue. A nice change of pace. There should be a campaign logo thread Tongue
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« Reply #976 on: January 11, 2019, 09:26:37 pm »

I like how it's not red, white, and blue. A nice change of pace. There should be a campaign logo thread Tongue

lemme just go ahead and steal this idea
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« Reply #977 on: January 11, 2019, 11:59:01 pm »

Please no DINOs.
*looks at sig*

*becomes confused*
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« Reply #978 on: January 12, 2019, 01:28:57 am »

Kamala Harris is announcing next week!
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« Reply #979 on: January 12, 2019, 09:48:03 am »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #980 on: January 12, 2019, 01:14:03 pm »

The Washington Examiner says don’t expect any GOP challengers to declare before June:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/republicans-plotting-to-oppose-trump-in-2020-waiting-for-mueller-and-june-before-pulling-trigger

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Political operatives and potential candidates that inhabit the loose-knit community of Republicans who oppose Trump’s re-election are eyeing June as the approximate moment for deciding on a primary challenge or independent bid. It’s a strategic delay. Some Republicans think the weight of multiple investigations could motivate the president to exit the White House after one term — especially if special counsel Robert Mueller issues a politically damaging report.

"The scenario I think we could be heading toward is Trump hitting a Mueller-induced problem where there would suddenly be several people looking at running because of the odds increasing that he won’t run again," said Rob Stutzman, a veteran GOP consultant in Sacramento, Calif., who has had discussions with like-minded Republicans about how Trump 2020 might be derailed.

Weirdly, it sounds like Team Kasich is leaning more towards an Indy bid than a GOP primary bid because they don’t want to play spoiler???  Don’t they have that backwards?

Quote
But Kasich isn’t interested in waging a primary campaign that might hobble the president against the Democrats in the general election but falls short of the White House. That’s why he’s considering running as an independent. Any Kasich bid, independent or GOP, would likely rely quite a bit on New Hampshire. The governor finished second there in the 2016 primary, and his supporters in the state say he retains considerable backing for another run.

"We would not run to be a Pat Buchanan-like spoiler. That's not anything that the governor or we are interested in," said John Weaver, a senior Kasich adviser. "We have an organization in place in New Hampshire that's grown since we finished second in 2016. We have consolidated, to some degree, the anti-Trump or disparate groups around the country who are opposed to the president within the party."

Looks like McAuliffe said about a week ago that there’s a 50% chance that he’s going to run:

https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari-melber/watch/clinton-buddy-mcauliffe-50-chance-i-ll-challenge-trump-in-2020-1420321347679

And while I’m talking McAuliffe, looks like he’s non-committal on whether he would self-fund:

https://freebeacon.com/politics/mcauliffe-wont-say-whether-he-would-self-fund-potential-2020-campaign-accept-corporate-pac-money/

Bloomberg on the other hand, does say that he’ll self-fund:

https://abcnews.go.com/beta-story-container/Politics/wireStory/bloomberg-hed-fund-2020-white-house-bid-60315610

And finally, Andrew Cuomo still not running:

https://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/cuomo-insists-he-will-not-join-presidential-race/article_5392ddd7-e56d-537c-971f-a2534adced0c.html

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As Andrew Cuomo tells it now, it’s important that there not be any public “ambiguity” about his political plans. In a public radio interview, he said if he were to be thought of as a candidate for the White House, state legislators might accuse him of taking actions based on his political ambition. He also said, “I don’t want to waste time on dialogue with reporters, (asking) ‘Well are you running or are you not running?”
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« Reply #981 on: January 12, 2019, 02:44:49 pm »

Maybe Kasich wants to throw the election?  I think even just being in the race gives him a pretty good chance of that.  And there’s some sense in not getting involved in a messy primary and just jumping in as an independent.

I wonder who he’d pick as his running-mate?  I sort of think it’d be some Democrat, though obviously someone out of office and probably not a Governor.
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« Reply #982 on: January 12, 2019, 02:58:28 pm »

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.
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« Reply #983 on: January 12, 2019, 03:29:48 pm »

Maybe Kasich wants to throw the election?  I think even just being in the race gives him a pretty good chance of that.  And there’s some sense in not getting involved in a messy primary and just jumping in as an independent.

I wonder who he’d pick as his running-mate?  I sort of think it’d be some Democrat, though obviously someone out of office and probably not a Governor.

Mattis and Lieberman would both be interesting and make sense.
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« Reply #984 on: January 12, 2019, 03:40:38 pm »

Maybe Kasich wants to throw the election?  I think even just being in the race gives him a pretty good chance of that.  And there’s some sense in not getting involved in a messy primary and just jumping in as an independent.

I wonder who he’d pick as his running-mate?  I sort of think it’d be some Democrat, though obviously someone out of office and probably not a Governor.

Mattis and Lieberman would both be interesting and make sense.

Mattis would bring a ton of credibility to the ticket, but I doubt he'd run against his former boss. Lieberman seems more likely, considering that he even endorsed McCain in '08.
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« Reply #985 on: January 12, 2019, 03:46:17 pm »

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.
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« Reply #986 on: January 12, 2019, 04:26:41 pm »

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.
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« Reply #987 on: January 12, 2019, 04:28:15 pm »

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.
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« Reply #988 on: January 12, 2019, 05:29:11 pm »

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.
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« Reply #989 on: January 12, 2019, 06:05:10 pm »

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.
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« Reply #990 on: January 12, 2019, 06:10:30 pm »

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« Reply #991 on: January 12, 2019, 06:16:15 pm »

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

Brown appeals to blue collar workers just as much as Biden, and he has a lot less baggage. Only thing is that he would give up his Senate seat and it may be tough for Democrats to get it back after DeWine appoints a replacement.
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« Reply #992 on: January 12, 2019, 06:40:34 pm »

Here's a recap of Inslee's Nevada appearance today, with a quote from him about his 2020 decision:

https://bangordailynews.com/2019/01/12/national-politics/democratic-governors-mayors-could-crowd-2020-presidential-primaries/

Quote
The 67-year-old governor and former congressman told The Associated Press in an interview after that he hasn’t made a decision about whether to run for president but “it won’t be months away.” Inslee said he’s talking to potential staff and traveling to talk with Democrats around the country, but there’s “no litmus test or pivot point” that his decision hinges on.

Historically, sitting governors are often among the last of the presidential candidates to formally declare their candidacy (just look at the 2016 election cycle timeline).  FHQ's timeline of state legislative sessions:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2019/01/invisibleprimary-visible-primary.html

shows that Washington's legislative session this year ends on April 28th, while Montana's ends on May 1st.  You might expect Inslee and Bullock to then wait until May to start their presidential campaigns, but it looks like Inslee at least isn't going to wait that long.
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« Reply #993 on: January 12, 2019, 06:46:35 pm »

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.
When has Biden won in an election in a state with blue collar workers? Being Obama’s second banana doesn’t count and is irrelevant. Most people couldn’t pick the VP out in a lineup. Biden is a perpetual loser in presidential politics. And white blue collar workers are not the only key to win back the White House. Some of you continuously act like other demographics don’t live in these states.
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« Reply #994 on: January 12, 2019, 06:46:37 pm »

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

This is a misleading recap if you read the Axios story that this is based on:

https://www.axios.com/1-election-thing-joe-biden-is-running-most-days-1547307957-62bbf645-69e3-4df5-bad3-1f8da28670f2.html

That story starts out by saying that Biden has told some people he's running, but then ends with:

Quote
We're told authoritatively that Biden hasn't decided. So who knows where his head winds up.

So it sounds like more of a muddle, with no clear conclusion as to whether he's really decided or not.
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« Reply #995 on: January 12, 2019, 08:06:55 pm »

Brown:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/11/sherrod-brown-trump-slayer-heres-his-big-idea/?utm_term=.d927aea83e3e

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Sen. Sherrod Brown will travel to the early presidential primary states in coming weeks, he confirmed to me in an interview.
.
.
.
“Connie and I are going to go into the primary states fairly soon,” Brown told me. “We’ll assess and decide within a couple of months.”
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« Reply #996 on: January 12, 2019, 08:42:54 pm »

Gillibrand is in (not that anyone expected different)

"In A Private Meeting, Kirsten Gillibrand Signals She Will Run For President"

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/darrensands/gillibrand-private-meeting-women-2020-president
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« Reply #997 on: January 12, 2019, 08:53:12 pm »

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

Oh, I think he can win the primaries, especially if his more progressive opposition is split between so many other candidates.

Though I wonder during the general election campaign if he can end up like Hillary Clinton in 2016 when certain key constituencies didn't show up in the required numbers in key states, despite winning the overall popular vote.  He could make up WWC support in some states, but fall short with other constituencies (like young people and women) in others.  
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« Reply #998 on: January 12, 2019, 09:16:15 pm »

Gillibrand is in (not that anyone expected different)

"In A Private Meeting, Kirsten Gillibrand Signals She Will Run For President"

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/darrensands/gillibrand-private-meeting-women-2020-president

ew
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« Reply #999 on: January 12, 2019, 11:50:13 pm »

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

Oh, I think he can win the primaries, especially if his more progressive opposition is split between so many other candidates.

Though I wonder during the general election campaign if he can end up like Hillary Clinton in 2016 when certain key constituencies didn't show up in the required numbers in key states, despite winning the overall popular vote.  He could make up WWC support in some states, but fall short with other constituencies (like young people and women) in others.  

Yep. His more progressive opposition will be divided between Sanders and Warren, which makes me believe that he may win the New Hampshire primary. So he would win more easily.

That’s how moderate Republicans like John McCain and Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination, respectively in 2008 and 2012 because their more conservative opposition was divided between Romney and Huckabee in 2008 and between Gingrich and Santorum in 2012.
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