The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maggie Haberman won't let the dream die:

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1103112642166775809

Oh my god. Please just go away and take Kerry with you

Neither of them are going to run. For whatever reason the media just loves teasing that these two are going to join the field.

[Beet]

Michael Dukakis 2020? He's a proven winner in West Virginia.

[Mr. Morden]

Maggie Haberman won't let the dream die:

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1103112642166775809

Oh my god. Please just go away and take Kerry with you

Neither of them are going to run. For whatever reason the media just loves teasing that these two are going to join the field.

Kerry himself said that he wouldn't rule it out, so it's not like they're just pulling this idea out of thin air.  If he wanted to avoid such speculation, he wouldn't say such things.

On Clinton, the story's a little different.  It's true that right wing outlets like Newsmax have been pushing "Clinton's going to run again" stories based on basically nothing.  However, in addition to that, there have been more mainstream news outlets (both the NYT as noted above, and CNN back in January) that have reported that privately she hasn't closed the door, despite public comments of skepticism.  So are the mainstream outlets reporting on this just making it up, or what?

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/jslovegrove/status/1103420622577852418

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/AnnieLinskey/status/1103117534969114627

lmao.

lol has anyone checked in on Al Gore yet? I mean, he's only 70.

He'd legit be the best of the dinosaurs.

[Tender Branson]

75 pages.

There needs to be a new Part 4 thread.

[Big Abraham]

https://twitter.com/AnnieLinskey/status/1103117534969114627

lmao.

lol has anyone checked in on Al Gore yet? I mean, he's only 70.

Yeah, and what about Carter? He's only 94 and still eligible for a second term.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/AnnieLinskey/status/1103117534969114627

lmao.

lol has anyone checked in on Al Gore yet? I mean, he's only 70.

Yeah, and what about Carter? He's only 94 and still eligible for a second term.

I'd love Al Gore to be prez. He's really the only one I'd probably support over Harris.

[Mr. Morden]

Team Biden is putting the pieces in place, but Biden himself continues to dither:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/us/politics/biden-2020.html

The pieces for a Joseph R. Biden Jr. presidential campaign are falling into place: His nucleus of advisers has begun offering campaign positions to seasoned Democratic strategists. They are eyeing a headquarters in Delaware or nearby Philadelphia and a launch date in the beginning of April. Mr. Biden’s family is on board — his wife, Jill, enthusiastically so.

Mr. Biden has also been privately reaching out to a range of influential Democrats, including party donors, members of Congress and allies in the early primary states, to gauge their support. A pillar of organized labor, the International Association of Fire Fighters, is prepared to support him in the Democratic primary.

And in recent weeks, Mr. Biden’s strategist, Steve Ricchetti, has called a handful of would-be candidates and their aides to signal that the former vice president is likely to enter the race and of late has been telling Democrats that he’s 95 percent committed to running, according to officials directly familiar with the discussions.

Yet while Mr. Biden is plainly further along in preparing for a White House bid than he was four years ago, when he grudgingly deferred to Hillary Clinton after months of consideration in the aftermath of his son Beau’s death, there is still one crucial element that’s outstanding: full and final consent from the former vice president himself.
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Still, in conversations over the phone and strategy sessions in his rented Northern Virginia home that are occasionally interrupted by his German shepherds, Major and Champ, Mr. Biden has acknowledged that he is uncertain about his place in the 2020 Democratic primary. He is also uneasy about potential attacks from rivals on his family, aides and advisers say, namely his son Hunter, a lawyer and lobbyist who went through a high-profile divorce in 2017 and has struggled with substance abuse.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-2020-former-vice-president-in-the-final-stages-of-preparing-bid-for-president/

Former Vice President Joe Biden is in the final stages of preparing for a 2020 presidential campaign that is expected to launch next month, according to multiple people familiar with his planning.

A formal kickoff is expected by mid-April and would all but cement the size and scope of the Democratic presidential field that currently stands at 12 formally declared candidates, two still in the formal exploratory stage and others still mulling a bid but waiting to see what the former veep might do.
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"My sense is that he's now in a more comfortable space when it comes to questions of broader viability," [one of the people familiar with his plans] said. "There's an element of Biden that takes his time. But he's much more confident than he was previously."

Another person involved with the plans said that "it's not an issue of being indecisive — just about getting things right." This person added that the activity level is now "moving at a campaign speed" and likely to come together quickly in the next few weeks.

That story, like the NYT story, says that his campaign would be headquartered in either Delaware of Philadelphia.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1103709451465428993

[Jon Tester]

Good choice.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/07/2020-presidential-election-sherrod-brown-says-he-wont-run/3089907002/

The Democrat from Cleveland told reporters Thursday in a conference call that he wants to remain a senator.

"We've decided the best place for me to continue fighting for Ohio and all the workers is to stay in the U.S. Senate," Brown said.

[RogueBeaver]

Moulton will decide by May, says he won't give up his House seat for now.

[MAINEiac4434]

Moulton will decide by May, says he won't give up his House seat for now.

Because he knows a progressive will take his seat, and he know he won't win the nomination.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1103709451465428993

This is the first opt-out that's really surprised me. 

[henster]

Moulton will decide by May, says he won't give up his House seat for now.

I have no idea why the guys with the lowest name ID are waiting the longest. Considering the debate criteria they should be getting in as early as possible.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1103709451465428993

This is the first opt-out that's really surprised me. 

Me, too. But may the best for him and the party to remain in the senate. He's a fine guy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Moulton will decide by May, says he won't give up his House seat for now.

I have no idea why the guys with the lowest name ID are waiting the longest. Considering the debate criteria they should be getting in as early as possible.

Delaney has been campaigning for 2 years, and he was 0% in the latest poll, so it doesn't really matter.

[Spiffy]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Further informations on that are as follows:

- Brown would be also having a blank cheque whether to run or not in Democratic primaries, it has to be up to him only

- He was offered to be a horse of "Rust Belt Act" (whatever that name means) which is being reportedly in the works

- That guaranteed Brown's VP slot would not only limit to the winner of Dem primaries, but to any other Democratic contender, I was told that he would get also guaranteed VP offers from "everyone" contending Democratic primaries

- That case about losing a Senate seat when choosing Sherrod for VP in 2020 (because Ohio governor is a Republican) was of course being considered, but according to the informations I got the stakes in 2020 are higher than losing a Senate seat, because it goes about presidency, and such decision was taken concerning that problem

Have you ever heard of "Rust Belt Act"?

Here are the latest updates:

- Harris (her person, candidacy and campaign) have been well accepted in the circles close to DNC;

- She's ready to kinda cooperate with DNC along DNC's legislative agenda (if such thing will be suiting her needs and views). This is important, because DNC wants to and plan to coordinate the outlook of the Party with the primary candidates, and wants it all to be made run smoothly (so Bernie Bros wouldn't get DNC support);

- Staffs of Harris and Brown are have to be coordinating calendars of each own to talk around questions of "Rust Belt Act" (of which I mentioned above in the quotation);

- Brown would decide whether to start or not within two months, if he'll decide to run, he'll officially launch (like KH did last day in Oakland) his campaign on May 1st (the Labor Day) in Chicago;

- But if Brown decide not to run, he'll be in Windy City anyway and along with KH would presumably officially unveil "Rust Belt Act" in the name of the rest of Democrats and DNC;

- That thing of course, would be meaning that Brown joins Harris on her ticket.

Hmm...

[Zaybay]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Further informations on that are as follows:

- Brown would be also having a blank cheque whether to run or not in Democratic primaries, it has to be up to him only

- He was offered to be a horse of "Rust Belt Act" (whatever that name means) which is being reportedly in the works

- That guaranteed Brown's VP slot would not only limit to the winner of Dem primaries, but to any other Democratic contender, I was told that he would get also guaranteed VP offers from "everyone" contending Democratic primaries

- That case about losing a Senate seat when choosing Sherrod for VP in 2020 (because Ohio governor is a Republican) was of course being considered, but according to the informations I got the stakes in 2020 are higher than losing a Senate seat, because it goes about presidency, and such decision was taken concerning that problem

Have you ever heard of "Rust Belt Act"?

Here are the latest updates:

- Harris (her person, candidacy and campaign) have been well accepted in the circles close to DNC;

- She's ready to kinda cooperate with DNC along DNC's legislative agenda (if such thing will be suiting her needs and views). This is important, because DNC wants to and plan to coordinate the outlook of the Party with the primary candidates, and wants it all to be made run smoothly (so Bernie Bros wouldn't get DNC support);

- Staffs of Harris and Brown are have to be coordinating calendars of each own to talk around questions of "Rust Belt Act" (of which I mentioned above in the quotation);

- Brown would decide whether to start or not within two months, if he'll decide to run, he'll officially launch (like KH did last day in Oakland) his campaign on May 1st (the Labor Day) in Chicago;

- But if Brown decide not to run, he'll be in Windy City anyway and along with KH would presumably officially unveil "Rust Belt Act" in the name of the rest of Democrats and DNC;

- That thing of course, would be meaning that Brown joins Harris on her ticket.

Hmm...

Im shocked that their sources werent accurate

[Mr. Morden]

Again, O'Rourke says he's already decided whether he's running for prez or not, so unless he's lying about that, then the answer is yes, he's running (unless all the reports on things like this are made up):

https://www.wmur.com/article/beto-orourke-team-begins-making-inquiries-about-possible-staffers-strategists-in-nh/26756430

As Beto O’Rourke continues to hold off on an announcement about his political plans, people working closely with him have begun making inquiries in New Hampshire about matters that would be central to a mounting a presidential campaign in the leadoff primary state.

Key Democratic sources -- who are not involved in any effort to draft O’Rourke -- told WMUR that people close to O’Rourke have reached out to politically knowledgeable Granite Staters seeking advice on specifics concerning what a New Hampshire campaign would entail.
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These inquiries have been made only in the past several days and are the first sign of any outreach by O’Rourke’s team with Granite Staters.

Moulton will decide by May, says he won't give up his House seat for now.

I have no idea why the guys with the lowest name ID are waiting the longest. Considering the debate criteria they should be getting in as early as possible.

Delaney has been campaigning for 2 years, and he was 0% in the latest poll, so it doesn't really matter.

Delaney has gotten 1% in some polls, just not the ones that count.  The more polls you're included in, the better your chances that you'll get 1% in some of them, even if just by chance.  Moulton's an example of someone obscure enough that he's not likely to be included in many (any?) polls until he formally enters the race, so if he's going to have any chance at all of making the debates, he should decide on whether to run right now, not just a few weeks before the deadline.  Same thing with fundraising.  He, and other low name IDers, have no shot at getting 65,000 donors in time if they don't get in until the last minute.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1103700445527244801

Moulton will decide by May, says he won't give up his House seat for now.

Also from that story:

Moulton has set his timeline for making a final decision at two months, by about May. He hasn’t started fundraising or hiring a staff. But he’s acting as if he has already entered the race. On March 19 and 20, he’ll be in South Carolina, joining former state Representative James Smith, another veteran, whom Moulton endorsed in his race for governor last year. He will also attend an event sponsored by college Democrats at the University of South Carolina, and he has plans to visit the other early-primary states by the end of April.

Schultz:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/432954-schultz-recruiting-gop-insiders-ahead-of-possible-2020-bid

Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has recruited at least three veteran House Republican staffers and consultants to join his presidential campaign-in-waiting, bringing on seasoned and well-connected GOP operatives who know their way around the very political apparatus helping to reelect President Trump in 2020.

They include Brendon DelToro and Matt LoParco, who served as deputy political director and external affairs director, respectively, to former National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) during the 2018 cycle.

A third Schultz hire, GOP consultant Greg Strimple, founder of GS Strategy Group, has done polling and other consulting for the NRCC, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), according to campaign finance reports.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan says he will likely decide whether to run "in the next month or so":

http://www.wfmj.com/story/40090024/rep-tim-ryan-opens-up-about-a-potential-run-for-the-presidency

One of the determining factors for Ryan will be his family. He says they have had conversations for a few months and will support him in whatever path he chooses.

"I think my wife thinks I'm a little crazy but she's my rock and she'll be there and the kids have said if we decide to do this, they'll be there. That means obviously the world to me because it would be a great sacrifice missing events with them and Brady is 4 and a half and just a load of fun and the kids are in high school and they're a lot of fun so missing out on that would suck but you also want to leave them a little bit better world than we're in right now and that is important to me too," said Ryan.

Another factor in the decision is money. Ryan is currently working to determine if he'll have sufficient financial backing to enter the race.

"You don't want to get in and not have anyone backing you. You need some money and it's also, do I think that my, like I'm not going to change my message, I'm going to talk about jobs, workers, new economy, pensions, the things I talk about here and will that resonate in Iowa, New Hampshire and the early states? I think there is some interest in that. Is there some interest in the generational change? yeah I think so, so you need some money but the people who have been through it say the person with the message that really connects, you tap into something, you saw this with Bernie Sanders, you saw this with Donald Trump, they had a message. Trump ran, he didn't have a whole lot of money, like he dominated free media. So if you have that message that really gets in someone's heart, then the money comes but you need enough to just get in," he said.
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Ryan says he needs to make a decision soon, likely in the next month or so.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Tim Ryan says he will likely decide whether to run "in the next month or so":

http://www.wfmj.com/story/40090024/rep-tim-ryan-opens-up-about-a-potential-run-for-the-presidency

One of the determining factors for Ryan will be his family. He says they have had conversations for a few months and will support him in whatever path he chooses.

"I think my wife thinks I'm a little crazy but she's my rock and she'll be there and the kids have said if we decide to do this, they'll be there. That means obviously the world to me because it would be a great sacrifice missing events with them and Brady is 4 and a half and just a load of fun and the kids are in high school and they're a lot of fun so missing out on that would suck but you also want to leave them a little bit better world than we're in right now and that is important to me too," said Ryan.

Another factor in the decision is money. Ryan is currently working to determine if he'll have sufficient financial backing to enter the race.

"You don't want to get in and not have anyone backing you. You need some money and it's also, do I think that my, like I'm not going to change my message, I'm going to talk about jobs, workers, new economy, pensions, the things I talk about here and will that resonate in Iowa, New Hampshire and the early states? I think there is some interest in that. Is there some interest in the generational change? yeah I think so, so you need some money but the people who have been through it say the person with the message that really connects, you tap into something, you saw this with Bernie Sanders, you saw this with Donald Trump, they had a message. Trump ran, he didn't have a whole lot of money, like he dominated free media. So if you have that message that really gets in someone's heart, then the money comes but you need enough to just get in," he said.
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Ryan says he needs to make a decision soon, likely in the next month or so.

With Brown out Ryan is almost certainly gonna run. I guess he knew more than us after all.