The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

The other thread has reached 2000 replies, so I'm locking it.  Here's the new thread for candidate news.  Mods, please sticky.

I guess I should also offer a link to the old thread, in case you want to revisit it:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273224

[Mr. Morden]

Harris to visit South Carolina next week:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/kamala-harris-2020-south-carolina-889035

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti now says he’ll decide on whether to run for president by Jan. 1st:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-avenatti-2020-president-trump_us_5bbf5c70e4b0bd9ed557a243

Steyer spending $4 million on digital ads aimed at getting young people to turn out in November.  His target states include Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tom-steyer-4-million-young-voters_us_5bbeb7e0e4b0b27cf47a7114

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Michelle Obama asked if she’ll run for president, and says “absolutely not”:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/michelle-obama-metoo-2020-her-181657848.html

[Mr. Morden]

I posted in the last thread that Harris was looking at visiting Iowa before the midterms.  Looks like she will in fact do that:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/kamala-harris-heads-to-iowa

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Bloomberg asked about 2020 during his NH visit:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/411270-bloomberg-visits-new-hampshire-fueling-2020-speculation

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He also talked about where he fits in to the current Democratic Party:

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[Mr. Morden]

538: Who's Behaving like a 2020 Candidate



*** mod note: fixed broken link

That list is mostly complete, though they left off Gabbard, who visited both Iowa and New Hampshire last month:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273224.msg6446398#msg6446398

There are a few not listed who've either dropped some sort of hints or interest or given non-denials, even if they're not visiting the early primary states.  I'm thinking of Cuomo, de Blasio, and Kerry, for instance.

Also, it's always a bit dicey to mix together explicit actions by the candidates, like  visiting states or writing books, with things like inclusion in a national poll, which the candidates themselves don't really control.

[Mr. Morden]

Castro was in Iowa on Friday and Saturday, asked about 2020:

https://whotv.com/2018/10/12/julian-castro-is-in-iowa-rallying-support-for-democrats/

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Also, Steve King remains Steve King:

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[Mr. Morden]

Warren's been wiring an extensive national infrastructure.

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Here's a peek at their whiteboard:

[Mr. Morden]

Gabbard was back in Iowa this weekend, for the second time in a month.  She was campaigning in Johnson County, along with Inslee and Merkley:

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/potential-2020-candidates-call-on-iowa-democrats-to-create-the-wave-that-will-change-washington-20181014

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/HCTrudo/status/1051860254571544576

Also, Swalwell asked about a presidential run:

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/california-democrat-eric-swalwell-tells-cnn-hes-considering-a-2020-presidential-run/

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[Mr. Morden]

Seth Moulton's first child was born a few days ago:

http://www.salemnews.com/news/local_news/baby-moulton-has-arrived-it-s-a-girl/article_f89141e1-d7d7-51ec-a5d1-b8b72b790a3c.html

Whether that impacts any decision on a presidential run, we'll see.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden headed to Nevada this weekend:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/15/joe-biden-nevada-900563

Hickenlooper says he’ll decide on a presidential run no later than early March, and that his current PAC is acting as a pseudo-exploratory committee:

https://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2018/10/15/colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-considers-presidential-versus-trump/1651274002/

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[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand headed to NH:

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1052331187648245760

Harris doing fundraising for NH Dems:

https://twitter.com/HCTrudo/status/1052325042607009792

Schiff asked about 2020:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-schiff-whats-next-20181016-story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Moulton says he doesn't think a presidential bid is the best way he could serve the country right now.

Here's the relevant exchange:

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden talks 2020 in Michigan:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/biden-age-legitimate-issue/index.html

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He also said this about his age:

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If Biden's really being honest (and he may not be, since presidential candidates downplay their presidential ambitions all the time), then he really doesn't sound that likely to run.  He's given himself a January deadline, but still talks about grief over Beau holding him back in some way?  And that's going to change in three months?

[Mr. Morden]

This story's from this past weekend (so when they say "Tuesday", they mean last week Tuesday), but just noticed it now:

https://www.loudountimes.com/news/political-action-committee-encouraging-former-gov-mcauliffe-to-run-for/article_0cae168e-d090-11e8-b173-97701f270ab5.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Harris's people aren't shy with Politico about the fact that they're thinking about 2020 strategy:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/kamala-harris-2020-strategy-908818

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[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand is asked about 2020 in this interview, and she changes the subject:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/kirsten-gillibrand-on-kavanaugh-fallout-and-her-2020-plans.html

New Garcetti interview here with some 2020 talk:

https://www.recode.net/2018/10/17/17987870/eric-garcetti-2020-presidential-race-democrats-donald-trump-kara-swisher-recode-decode-podcast

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/julian-castro-says-hes-likely-to-challenge-trump-in-2020
Seems to me that Julian is in...I don't know what to think about this.

I actually think that Castro will do better then people expect. He'll probably be the only Hispanic at the big debate. (sorry but Virgin Garcetti is going to be on the edge of the undercard debate) No way he's the nominee though. I figure he bets big on Nevada but drops out afterwards.

I don't see him making the main debate, which will kill his campaign. Same for Garcetti, most who end up in the undercard debate will drop out before Iowa because almost none of them will make it to the main one.

Well, the new CNN poll had Garcetti at 2%.....which put him ahead of Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Patrick (Castro wasn't included as an option):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303924.0

I think the top 5 names in that poll (Biden / Sanders / Harris / Warren / Booker) are *probably* very solid bets to make the top tier debate stage, should they run.  (But maybe only 3 or 4 out of the 5 of them will run.). Beyond that....I have no idea.  Who else is going to fill up those remaining 6 or 7 spots on the debate stage?  It could be nearly anyone, since so many of the other candidates are pretty unknown to the average voter.  People have predicted that, for example, Gillibrand would emerge as a top tier candidate.  But all the polling indicates that she's still pretty unknown outside of New York.  Maybe that'll change, and maybe it won't.  But I wouldn't rule out a Castro or a Garcetti making it to the 1st tier debate stage.  It'll probably only take about 2% support to get there.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden on his decision:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-explains-how-he-will-decide-whether-to-run-for-president-2020/

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Again, he's still referencing grief over Beau potentially holding him back all these years later.  And "what I want to do with the rest of my life".  That seems perfectly reasonable for someone who's almost 80.  If he's elected president in 2020, then he's potentially going to be spending his final years in which he's of sound mind and body as POTUS.  Does he really want to do that?  If he legitimately doubts that now, then I'm skeptical of that changing within the next few months.

Also, Buttigieg:

https://twitter.com/NicoleSganga/status/1052013109014093824

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg’s doing events in South Carolina:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/politics/michael-bloomberg-trade-policy-2020/index.html

Evan McMullin was in Iowa a couple of days ago.  Other potential 2020ers visiting Iowa in the coming weeks include Hickenlooper, Sanders, Harris, Bullock, and Sasse:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/16/iowa-stumping-2020-caucus-midterms-donald-trump-cory-booker-mike-pence-bernie-sanders-kamala-harris/1658184002/

[Mr. Morden]

Evan McMullin was in Iowa a couple of days ago.  Other potential 2020ers visiting Iowa in the coming weeks include Hickenlooper, Sanders, Harris, Bullock, and Sasse:

Will McMullin run as an independent again or as a Republican?

I've speculated that he might consider run in the Republican primary if all of the potential candidates with experience in elected office, like Kasich, Sasse, etc., end up chickening out and don't run (which is an underrated possibility....some seem to think Kasich running is a foregone conclusion, but I don't).  I think *someone* will end up running against Trump in the primaries, so if not a "real" politician, then someone like McMullin (or Kristol  ).

[Mr. Morden]

All of these potential 2020ers will be doing events in New Hampshire within the next 10 days:

Booker, Avenatti, Castro, McAuliffe and Gillibrand:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/On-The-Trail-20964449

Actually, scratch that last one.  Gillibrand’s already there.  And she was asked about 2020 but dodged:

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I love how she says "I'm focused on my own Senate race" while campaigning in an early primary state for someone else.

[Mr. Morden]

New NYT story about the fact that multiple women will be running in ’20, which includes another non-denial from Gillibrand:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/democrats-women-president-2020.html

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[Mr. Morden]

That she's considering this was already pretty obvious given her recent Iowa and New Hampshire visits, but the media seemed to be ignoring those for some reason:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/tulsi-gabbard-2020-presidential-bid-917418

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[Mr. Morden]

While in Iowa, Hickenlooper says there’s a “pretty high probability” that he’ll run:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/19/colorado-governor-john-hickenlooper-iowa-run-president-caucuses-trump-2020-caucuses-des-moines/1683457002/

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Like Biden, Sanders concedes that health is an issue:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/bernie-sanders-2020-918609

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