The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[UWS]

Julian Castro says he's likely running.

Okay, so Cornyn’s senate seat should be Likely R or even Safe R in 2020.

[UWS]

Julian Castro says he's likely running.

Okay, so Cornyn’s senate seat should be Likely R or even Safe R in 2020.

Not necessairly. If Joaquin Castro runs, Cornyn is in just as much danger, and if Beto loses and tries again in 2020, he'd probably have a good shot at beating Cornyn as well.

Maybe, but it would be difficult because it’s Texas.

[UWS]

Biden now says that even if he sticks to his earlier stated January decision deadline for whether to run again, he won't announce said decision as early as January:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/06/joe-biden-2020-announce-964820

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think he means that he will announce his intentions approximaely on January 31 if he sayshat early January is too early.

[UWS]

Biden has adopted a German Shepherd named Major:

https://katu.com/news/nation-world/former-vice-president-joe-biden-adopts-new-dog



Not sure if that means he's more or less likely to run for president than he was before we had this news. 

It could be his presidential pet, so I think it could actually be a sign of preparation to a 2020 presidential bid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_pets

[UWS]

Biden will make his decision within the next couple of months.  

More precisely, he said in the nex two months, which means that he will announce in February. And if he says that he's the most qualified, I guess that's a sign that he will run.

[UWS]

Biden “leaning toward running” and “likely to decide within the next two weeks”:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/06/us/politics/joe-biden-2020-president.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Likely to decide in the next two weeks? So does that mean he could announce earlier or just take the decision in the next two weeks and then announce on early February as he originally declared?

[UWS]

Biden « sees himself as Democrats' best hope in 2020 »

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/06/us/politics/joe-biden-2020-president.html

[UWS]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

[UWS]

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

Oh, I think he can win the primaries, especially if his more progressive opposition is split between so many other candidates.

Though I wonder during the general election campaign if he can end up like Hillary Clinton in 2016 when certain key constituencies didn't show up in the required numbers in key states, despite winning the overall popular vote.  He could make up WWC support in some states, but fall short with other constituencies (like young people and women) in others.  

Yep. His more progressive opposition will be divided between Sanders and Warren, which makes me believe that he may win the New Hampshire primary. So he would win more easily.

That’s how moderate Republicans like John McCain and Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination, respectively in 2008 and 2012 because their more conservative opposition was divided between Romney and Huckabee in 2008 and between Gingrich and Santorum in 2012.

[UWS]

Joe Biden closer to decision on 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/28/politics/joe-biden-close-to-2020-decision/index.html

[UWS]

biden said he will decide until end of january. here's february, so he probably will not run. i really think that he and sanders shouldn't run.

Actually, Biden said that he will make up his mind by February personally and officially announce in the coming weeks/months.

[UWS]

Biden likely to enter soon:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430028-exclusive-biden-almost-certain-to-enter-2020-race?fbclid=IwAR0E_JscikCLX3JomvvX9s4z7gmn9vFod_EtMbNSoeeJhJlLgYdwdQ_JwnI

Indeed. Vanity Fair reports that Biden is 95 % ready to run in 2020.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/02/biden-95-percent-ready-2020-run

[UWS]

I doubt that Beto and Biden run, maybe Biden.

Actually, when Biden met the Armenian President yesterday, he asked Biden whether he is going to run, then there were whispers that could not be easily heard but if you read well Biden's lips, he would have said "I'm gonna run." And according to Biden's gestures, his answer also sounded like a yes.

https://news.am/eng/news/497152.html