The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Roll Roons]

Wtf do these clowns like Buttigieg, Castro, McAuliffe and co. think their potential winning coalition is going to consist of

Buttgig is just doing this to boost his a national profile: growing name recognition and building establishment/donor connections for his next attempt at becoming DNC chairman and/or running for some statewide race in Indiana.

Castro is an ambitious empty suit who is egotistical enough to believe he's the "Hispanic Barack Obama", even though the people building that hype are morons with no idea what they're talking about

T-Mac is a popular former governer with a solid record. He will be brought up and discussed far more often than his candidacy would otherwise warrant due to probably 2/3 of the DC press corps living in his state; literally every Virginia governor since Chuck Robb has at some point been hyped up as "potential presidential candidate" and (at least) flirted with running for office. As a former DNC Chairman he also has literally all the insider connections, has major experience with previous Presidential campaigns so he knows firsthand what to do and/or not to do, and as a guy who has literally drank rum straight from the bottle on cable news his status as "candidate you'd have a drink with" is unparalleled. Lastly T-Mac is one of those "ruthless pragmatists" willing to get his hands dirty to win with the talent to cover it up well (I remain convinced that he spent election night 2014 personally stuffing ballot boxes in NOVA, toiling away for hours to ensure Mark Warner's reelection.)

tl;dr don't underestimate T-Mac, he's leagues above those also-rans and should be taken seriously

Buttigieg probably won't be able to win a statewide race in Indiana. I see him getting a cabinet position (HUD or Transportation) in the next Democratic administration.

Also T-Mac would be a terrible nominee for the Democrats. As you pointed out, he's the ultimate DC insider in every way possible. Trump can just dust off the "Drain the Swamp" playbook and it will work just as well as it did against Hillary. He's even been under investigation for shady business dealings. Stunts like drinking rum on live TV just come off as pandering. Plus Bernie types will be completely turned off by him.

[Roll Roons]

Maybe Kasich wants to throw the election?  I think even just being in the race gives him a pretty good chance of that.  And there’s some sense in not getting involved in a messy primary and just jumping in as an independent.

I wonder who he’d pick as his running-mate?  I sort of think it’d be some Democrat, though obviously someone out of office and probably not a Governor.

Mattis and Lieberman would both be interesting and make sense.

Mattis would bring a ton of credibility to the ticket, but I doubt he'd run against his former boss. Lieberman seems more likely, considering that he even endorsed McCain in '08.

[Roll Roons]

I doubt he’d win the primaries but Biden is right in saying that he’s the Democrats’ best hope in 2020. Appeals to the blue collar workers in ways that other candidates cannot, and that is the key to winning back the Rust Belt and therefore the White House.

Brown appeals to blue collar workers just as much as Biden, and he has a lot less baggage. Only thing is that he would give up his Senate seat and it may be tough for Democrats to get it back after DeWine appoints a replacement.

[Roll Roons]

Also bear in mind that Brown was a finalist to be Hillary's running mate, but she didn't go through with it because she knew that he'd be replaced in the Senate by a Republican. That was his only real negative, but it's a big one and it hasn't gone away.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1085319082600263681

Oooh!

Exploratory Committee?

Had Cordray won last year, I would be ecstatic about this. It sucks to say this, but Sherrod Brown would serve his country and state better by staying in the Senate.  He probably wouldn't be able to win the primary anyway, granted, so maybe he's just running for the hell of it, but still, I don't think it's worth the risk.

Even if Cordray had won I think a Republican would have still won Brown's seat in the special election.

[Roll Roons]

As noted here before, Buttigieg's book comes out on Feb. 12th, and the most recent reporting suggested he might not launch an exploratory committee until his book tour was over.  But in this interview, he suggests he might end up acting earlier than that, possibly this month:

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/politics/police-tapes-pence-immigration-raid-rumor-what-we-learned-from/article_3d871e0c-1dfe-5339-8f18-eea5a90a4560.html

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This Buttigieg thing is so weird, what makes him more notable than the hundred other small town Mayors out there? Why does he get more attention than say Levar Stoney or Muriel Bowser?

He's young, gay and an Afghanistan veteran.

[Roll Roons]

Garcetti is out per politico. Announcement to come at 8pm local time. Clears way for Harris to be sole CA candidate.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/29/eric-garcetti-will-not-run-for-president-1136400   

What are the chances he replaces her in the Senate if she goes to the White House?

I think he could get a Cabinet position. Between HUD and Transportation, Garcetti can have one and Buttigieg can have the other.

[Roll Roons]

Beto stopped raising money after he lost and hasn't met donors yet.

I think it's fair to say now that he is very likely not running.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/29/opinions/beto-orourke-is-driving-the-political-class-nuts-axelrod/index.html

Axelrod thinks he might be, but he's just being "Beto" and taking a completely unconventional approach with his road trip. There's still his Times Square interview with Oprah next week, which makes me think he's not out of the running just yet.

[Roll Roons]

The Root has an interview with Booker that they released this afternoon, in which he says he’ll make a decision “some time in the next month”:

https://www.theroot.com/cory-booker-to-announce-decision-on-presidential-run-in-1832201108

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Wayne Messam, the mayor of Miramar, Florida, is considering a run for the Democratic nomination for president(!):

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article225201075.html

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Stop giving these attention seekers what they want.

I'm sure Messam reads uselectionatlas.org to see who is talking about him.  That's the reason for his teasing a presidential run.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of small time politicians who lurk or even post on here.

[Roll Roons]

1.Hasn't Jay Inslee already announced that he's running for President?

2.These people expressed an interest at some points, but haven't said anything since:  Bill De Blasio, Bob Casey and John Kerry.  Are they still interested?

3.Others seemed very interested at one point, but seemed to have gone off the radar:  John Hickenlooper, Jeff Merkley and Eric Holder.  Are they still interested?

1. Not officially yet, but he's visiting IA and NH a ton. This report says he's going to jump in sometime in the next few weeks: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/washington-gov-jay-inslee-nears-decision-on-2020-presidential-run.html

2. Casey ruled himself out. I don't think the other two are likely to run. Kerry had his chance in 2004, and Bloomberg is acting more like a candidate than De Blasio at this point.

3. Hick is definitely still interested. He's been traveling a bunch to the early states, and will reportedly decide soon. Not sure about Merkley, but his lane is already occupied by Warren and potentially Bernie. Holder is a joke and would get absolutely nowhere.

[Roll Roons]

Biden likely to enter soon:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430028-exclusive-biden-almost-certain-to-enter-2020-race?fbclid=IwAR0E_JscikCLX3JomvvX9s4z7gmn9vFod_EtMbNSoeeJhJlLgYdwdQ_JwnI

[Roll Roons]

Won't get anywhere in the primaries, but he's be a great choice for EPA in the next administration. It would show that they're serious about wanting to tackle it.

[Roll Roons]

Grandpa Joe:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/432131-exclusive-inside-joe-bidens-campaign-in-waiting?fbclid=IwAR02W49xC5o_XijAYLURlSsXwO21m8Hp-yPAi-N_yaEhM96Gcvw1V0o_t9g

[Roll Roons]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

And on top of that, Biden seems a very likely target for #MeToo accusations, either sincere or GOP-generated.  Both from Thomas' confirmation hearings and the regular appearances of "Creepy Uncle Joe".

He would be a very poor choice for nominee. Fortunately, I doubt he's running.

He's very likely to run, and the metooers can deal with it. Just because hes a straight white male doesn't mean they can just go after him without any actual evidence of anything.

Plus, they probably won't even go after him, because he's a democrat (Franken was a rare exception) and even if there is evidence against him of anything the media won't report it because again, he's a democrat. They only want to deflect the negative attention towards Trump.

John Conyers? Keith Ellison?

Well, Ellison got elected  AG so he's not a great example. But there's Eric Schneiderman and Ruben Kihuen.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1105793532642488322

!!!

Ok, for a second I thought that said COONS was about to get in