AZ: Other Source: Ducey +17

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Arizona Governor by Other Source on 2018-10-02

Summary: D: 37%, R: 54%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[isoscelessquare]

I'd have to imagine that if ducey really wins by this much it's only going to help McSally.

[libertpaulian]

I'd have to imagine that if ducey really wins by this much it's only going to help McSally.

Ehh.  Napolitano and Kyl simultaneously won their elections.

[ON Progressive]

I'd have to imagine that if ducey really wins by this much it's only going to help McSally.

Gubernatorial coattails don’t exist. If they did, Elizabeth Warren and Ben Cardin would be in danger, but they obviously are not.

[IceSpear]

I'd have to imagine that if ducey really wins by this much it's only going to help McSally.

The weird thing is that this poll has Ducey +17 and McSally +6, whereas others have Ducey +16-18 and Sinema +2-3.

[Young Conservative]

Gubernatorial coattails definitely DO exist.

[History505]

I'd have to imagine that if ducey really wins by this much it's only going to help McSally.

Gubernatorial coattails don’t exist. If they did, Elizabeth Warren and Ben Cardin would be in danger, but they obviously are not.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL there are no gubernatorial coattails. If anything they go from Senate to Governor. Garcia in this case is not helped by Sinema b/c she's not leading by that much. I still think she's going to win though, but she would be ahead by more if she was running as an actual democrat and not a neoliberal shill.

[Politician]

Gubernatorial coattails definitely DO exist.

Senators Dick Mountjoy, Alan Schlesinger, Cynthia Thielen, Jean Hay Bright, Mark Kennedy, Pete Ricketts, Lincoln Chafee, Harold Ford Jr, Rich Tarrant, and Dale Groutage say hi.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Gubernatorial coattails definitely DO exist.

Senators Dick Mountjoy, Alan Schlesinger, Cynthia Thielen, Jean Hay Bright, Mark Kennedy, Pete Ricketts, Lincoln Chafee, Harold Ford Jr, Rich Tarrant, and Dale Groutage say hi.

[tmthforu94]

Friendly reminder that Pat Roberts struggled to win reelection in a favorable GOP year (2014) primarily because there was an extremely unpopular governor on the ballot. It is a case-by-case basis on whether the governor's race affects other races.

[Politician]

Friendly reminder that Pat Roberts struggled to win reelection in a favorable GOP year (2014) primarily because there was an extremely unpopular governor on the ballot. It is a case-by-case basis on whether the governor's race affects other races.

He also ran a terrible campaign and barely won the primary over a Tea Party candidate. Orman was also an independent, which helped his credentials with moderate Republicans.

[Skye]

Friendly reminder that Pat Roberts struggled to win reelection in a favorable GOP year (2014) primarily because there was an extremely unpopular governor on the ballot. It is a case-by-case basis on whether the governor's race affects other races.

He also ran a terrible campaign and barely won the primary over a Tea Party candidate. Orman was also an independent, which helped his credentials with moderate Republicans.

Brownback's unpopularity didn't help, but Roberts certainly was in trouble because of himself.

[RI]

Did all the snowbirds move back south and start answering polls in the last couple weeks or something?

[Senator Incitatus]

Gubernatorial coattails definitely DO exist.

They do, but they apply much more strongly to state legislatures than Congress. See NJ 2013 (where Republicans won the popular vote for State Senate) versus 2017.