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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +9
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Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +9  (Read 3455 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 11, 2018, 05:01:17 am »

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578

Cruz 54
O'Rourke 45
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 05:04:18 am »

Siena also has a 9 point margin in their almost completed poll.
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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 05:08:24 am »

Isn't this exactly the same as their result in September? Looks like this race is fairly stagnant. This is also the same as Trump's margin in Texas.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2018, 05:13:04 am »

Isn't this exactly the same as their result in September? Looks like this race is fairly stagnant. This is also the same as Trump's margin in Texas.

Yes, there seems to be movements that cancel each other out. Beto's doing better with women, but worse with men, and even though he wins Independents handily, he doesn't seem to be winning enough Republicans (who are all firmly behind Cruz now).
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Figueira
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2018, 05:40:51 am »

Isn't this exactly the same as their result in September? Looks like this race is fairly stagnant. This is also the same as Trump's margin in Texas.

Yes, there seems to be movements that cancel each other out. Beto's doing better with women, but worse with men, and even though he wins Independents handily, he doesn't seem to be winning enough Republicans (who are all firmly behind Cruz now).

Interesting.

I still maintain that Beto can win, mostly because of how much uncertainty there is with turnout. Still somewhere around Lean/Likely R though.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2018, 05:56:31 am »

Isn't this exactly the same as their result in September? Looks like this race is fairly stagnant. This is also the same as Trump's margin in Texas.

Yes, there seems to be movements that cancel each other out. Beto's doing better with women, but worse with men, and even though he wins Independents handily, he doesn't seem to be winning enough Republicans (who are all firmly behind Cruz now).

Interesting.

I still maintain that Beto can win, mostly because of how much uncertainty there is with turnout. Still somewhere around Lean/Likely R though.

I think at the end of the day, that will be the issue with the polling being right or wrong. Beto's run is kind of precedented in TX, I don't think any outlets truly know what turnout will look like.
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2018, 06:57:18 am »

We were wondering if the September poll was an outlier, but they found the same result again, and the Siena poll has fairly similar results. The race is clearly in Cruz's favor, and with so little time left, I doubt O'Rourke can find the support he needs to win.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2018, 07:02:42 am »

Cruz spoke out in Kavanaugh's favor, he clearly got a bump
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2018, 07:03:37 am »

RIP Beto Sad

This poll is gonna make a certain user's day...
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bilaps
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 07:41:14 am »

Stop polling this race
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2018, 07:44:42 am »

Yep, Beto can still win as it's very much based on enthusiasm and turnout. Something I noticed in the Siena poll, O'Rourke was up by 3 points among those certain to vote, which leads credence to a big enthusiasm gap. GOP enthusiasm is actually at a high right now thanks to the Kavanaugh drama, so if you assume it'll fade some by election day....
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2018, 08:33:20 am »

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2018, 08:56:00 am »

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

The only example I can think of is Ron Johnson, who was down by 7 a week before the election. But yeah...it's definitely not something anyone wants to count on, considering >99% of the time it's not going to happen. He's going to have to narrow the polls in the last few weeks if he wants any semi-realistic chance.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2018, 09:27:20 am »

Disappointing, but not surprising.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2018, 09:28:18 am »

What a disgrace. They deserve such a horrible senator if they are going to vote for them. When tariffs ravage farmers and immigrant workers are deported, I will have no sympathy for those people. You voted for this cretin. You reap what you sew.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2018, 09:40:32 am »

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

Heitkamp in 2012 I believe.

But yeah I think Beto is going to maybe do a little better than Hillary.
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Politician
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2018, 09:40:57 am »

So, the consensus is that this is Safe R now?
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2018, 09:41:55 am »

Maybe Beto can just start running campaign ads for the Dem Congressional candidates at this point and redirect his entire field effort to focus only on TX-07, TX-32, and maybe 1 or 2 others. Perhaps TX-23 could even still be turned around with sufficient focus? Also is there any law against him running ads in Missouri and Florida for McCaskill/Nelson? If not, so many millions flushed down the toilet. I hope everyone likes their Beto yard signs though.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2018, 09:42:06 am »

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

Heitkamp in 2012 I believe.

But yeah I think Beto is going to maybe do a little better than Hillary.

Not to be anal, but Heitkamp was only down 6. Tongue
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2018, 09:45:31 am »

So, the consensus is that this is Safe R now?

That would be hyperbolic (I hate to use that word lest someone have to google it, but alas). It is the same as it always was. Lean/Likely R.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2018, 09:53:46 am »

Predictable and exciting. Likely R.
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History505
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2018, 09:56:54 am »

Cruz looks on his way to re-election for another term as senator, maintaining a decent poll lead here and this is similar to the Sinema poll. Beto would have win in a major upset if he wants to be senator.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2018, 10:12:09 am »

Beto must outperform Hillary. MUST. I don't want TX-7 or TX-32 slipping away
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2018, 10:18:06 am »

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

Heitkamp in 2012 I believe.

But yeah I think Beto is going to maybe do a little better than Hillary.

Not to be anal, but Heitkamp was only down 6. Tongue

People are really exaggerating how much Heitkamp was down by in 2012. She was tied in the Atlas polling average on Election Day and never trailed in a non-Rasmussen poll within six months of the election by more than 2 points. She also led more polls than she trailed.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2018, 10:24:39 am »

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

Heitkamp in 2012 I believe.

But yeah I think Beto is going to maybe do a little better than Hillary.

Not to be anal, but Heitkamp was only down 6. Tongue

People are really exaggerating how much Heitkamp was down by in 2012. She was tied in the Atlas polling average on Election Day and never trailed in a non-Rasmussen poll within six months of the election by more than 2 points. She also led more polls than she trailed.

True.
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