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Author Topic: RI-Della Volpe: Raimondo +8  (Read 606 times)
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
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« on: October 11, 2018, 03:59:46 pm »

Raimondo (D): 40%
Fun (R): 32%

http://www.golocalprov.com/politics/golocalprov-harvards-della-volpe-poll-governors-race-nearly-a-dead-heat
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adrac
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 04:47:47 pm »

Note Trillo's 17%. Looks like Raimondo's getting off easy.
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 05:51:57 pm »

Raimondo would be in big trouble in a Clinton midterm, but this year, looks like she gets a pass. Lean D, closer to Likely than Toss-Up.
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colincb
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2018, 12:52:09 am »

Note Trillo's 17%. Looks like Raimondo's getting off easy.

Not sure about this particular poll, but Raimondo would be vulnerable to better opposition than what she has faced this year. She's never been a threat to hit 50%.
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Chateaubriand Pact
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2018, 05:02:00 pm »

Note Trillo's 17%. Looks like Raimondo's getting off easy.

Does anyone think Trillo will reach that on Election Day? I know RI has an anti-establishment streak (see Healey), but I think Raimondo should be a little worried that at least of his voters will ultimately go to Fung. I wish they'd poll on second choices for all three candidates' supporters.

Also of interest:

  • <20% are certain who they will vote for
  • Raimondo has a major advantage on public education
  • Fung has no clear advantages but is best on fiscal issues
« Last Edit: October 13, 2018, 05:07:31 pm by AMB1996 »Logged

Imperialist. Hamiltonian Federalist. Romanticist. Nationalist.
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Most familiar with New Jersey and New England politics. Currently interested in American, French, and ancient Roman history. Admirer of Lincoln, Napoleon, and Augustus.
colincb
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2018, 10:40:09 pm »

Note Trillo's 17%. Looks like Raimondo's getting off easy.

Does anyone think Trillo will reach that on Election Day? I know RI has an anti-establishment streak (see Healey), but I think Raimondo should be a little worried that at least of his voters will ultimately go to Fung. I wish they'd poll on second choices for all three candidates' supporters.

Also of interest:

  • <20% are certain who they will vote for
  • Raimondo has a major advantage on public education
  • Fung has no clear advantages but is best on fiscal issues

Raimondo should be worried. She has a ceiling.

Trillo's a Trump Republican to the right of Fung. Healey was strictly a protest vote. I could see the Trillo voters deserting to Fung.
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2018, 10:32:20 am »

Note Trillo's 17%. Looks like Raimondo's getting off easy.

Does anyone think Trillo will reach that on Election Day? I know RI has an anti-establishment streak (see Healey), but I think Raimondo should be a little worried that at least of his voters will ultimately go to Fung. I wish they'd poll on second choices for all three candidates' supporters.

Also of interest:

  • <20% are certain who they will vote for
  • Raimondo has a major advantage on public education
  • Fung has no clear advantages but is best on fiscal issues

Raimondo should be worried. She has a ceiling.

Trillo's a Trump Republican to the right of Fung. Healey was strictly a protest vote. I could see the Trillo voters deserting to Fung.

Don't overestimate how many voters acknowledge a left-right spectrum and place themselves on it. RI especially has a number of Trump-style populist conservatives who are loyal to Democrats.
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Imperialist. Hamiltonian Federalist. Romanticist. Nationalist.
Reactionary. Environmentalist. Non-partisan. Unapologetic Yankee.

Most familiar with New Jersey and New England politics. Currently interested in American, French, and ancient Roman history. Admirer of Lincoln, Napoleon, and Augustus.
colincb
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2018, 06:46:35 am »

Note Trillo's 17%. Looks like Raimondo's getting off easy.

Does anyone think Trillo will reach that on Election Day? I know RI has an anti-establishment streak (see Healey), but I think Raimondo should be a little worried that at least of his voters will ultimately go to Fung. I wish they'd poll on second choices for all three candidates' supporters.

Also of interest:

  • <20% are certain who they will vote for
  • Raimondo has a major advantage on public education
  • Fung has no clear advantages but is best on fiscal issues

Raimondo should be worried. She has a ceiling.

Trillo's a Trump Republican to the right of Fung. Healey was strictly a protest vote. I could see the Trillo voters deserting to Fung.

Don't overestimate how many voters acknowledge a left-right spectrum and place themselves on it. RI especially has a number of Trump-style populist conservatives who are loyal to Democrats.

Trump's totals were a couple of points better than the average of the last 4 GOP presidential runs, but in line with Bush in 2004. Trump was still under 40%. RI (or MA) is the most Democratic state in the US and the 2 US reps and 2 US senators from RI have won on average by over a 30% in their last races.

There are a lot of Democrats who are not loyal to Raimondo. That's the real issue with this race. She's under 50% as a Democratic incumbent and that's not normal for RI, particularly since Fung is not a strong candidate.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 06:52:18 am by colincb »Logged
DPKdebator
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2018, 11:16:10 am »

Note Trillo's 17%. Looks like Raimondo's getting off easy.

Does anyone think Trillo will reach that on Election Day? I know RI has an anti-establishment streak (see Healey), but I think Raimondo should be a little worried that at least of his voters will ultimately go to Fung. I wish they'd poll on second choices for all three candidates' supporters.

Also of interest:

  • <20% are certain who they will vote for
  • Raimondo has a major advantage on public education
  • Fung has no clear advantages but is best on fiscal issues

Raimondo should be worried. She has a ceiling.

Trillo's a Trump Republican to the right of Fung. Healey was strictly a protest vote. I could see the Trillo voters deserting to Fung.

Don't overestimate how many voters acknowledge a left-right spectrum and place themselves on it. RI especially has a number of Trump-style populist conservatives who are loyal to Democrats.

Trump's totals were a couple of points better than the average of the last 4 GOP presidential runs, but in line with Bush in 2004. Trump was still under 40%. RI (or MA) is the most Democratic state in the US and the 2 US reps and 2 US senators from RI have won on average by over a 30% in their last races.

There are a lot of Democrats who are not loyal to Raimondo. That's the real issue with this race. She's under 50% as a Democratic incumbent and that's not normal for RI, particularly since Fung is not a strong candidate.

While Trump didn't hit 40% (he got 38.90%), it should also be noted that Hillary only got 54.41% of the vote due to third parties.
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