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Author Topic: WI-Marist: Evers +10  (Read 2066 times)
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« on: October 11, 2018, 04:00:33 pm »

Evers (D): 53%
Walker (R): 43%

Evers favorability is +11
Walker favorability is -12

« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 04:27:13 pm by PittsburghSteel »Logged

GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 04:01:01 pm »

Wow.  Wasn't expecting that!
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 04:02:21 pm »

Baldwin's numbers aren't that different than the Marquette numbers, but this obviously is.
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2018, 04:03:17 pm »

Lean D. This poll is something of an outlier and I expect the margin to thin out but to claim Evers isn't a solid favorite is ludicrous.
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2018, 04:03:54 pm »

*Spews out Drink*
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2018, 04:04:31 pm »

Yeah, Marist is looking heavily D-leaning this cycle for this state. It's as if they excluded WOW or only polled women. LMAO. This is why they aren't the Gold Standard.
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2018, 04:05:57 pm »

Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2018, 04:07:01 pm »

Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.
Keep this in mind before you start celebrating and getting complacent...

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2018, 04:07:12 pm »

Even though Marist does not weight for education, the likely voter same is 44% college educated, which is only 4 points higher than what Marquette, who does weigh for education, has averaged the past two months.

So this is a bit higher than normal, but not radically higher to the point you have to question the sample.
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 04:08:00 pm »

Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.
Keep this in mind before you start celebrating and getting complacent...

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

They are only off Marquette's average by 4 points, totally within the realm of possibility.
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2018, 04:08:24 pm »

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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2018, 04:09:02 pm »

When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2018, 04:09:06 pm »

Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.

Agreed. Plus there was no way Baldwin was ahead by double digits while Evers wasn't at least eeking out Walker by like three points.
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2018, 04:12:17 pm »

When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2018, 04:12:51 pm »

Great news
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2018, 04:13:23 pm »

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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2018, 04:14:02 pm »

I feel like this has happend before. And what I mean by that is Marist showing Evers ahead and Marquette having a toss-up.
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2018, 04:14:44 pm »

When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 
So if Walker loses, people should give the credit to some random Internet forum poster? Okay...
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2018, 04:14:54 pm »

Marquette has been consistently Walker-friendly this entire election, not to mention they've been very "bouncy".
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2018, 04:16:00 pm »

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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2018, 04:17:27 pm »

I’d say split the difference between this and Marquette for a good read of where the race might be
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2018, 04:19:03 pm »

I feel like this has happend before. And what I mean by that is Marist showing Evers ahead and Marquette having a toss-up.

Hmm, something else happened before in terms of polling...in this very state.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?fips=55&class=3
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2018, 04:30:46 pm »

I feel like this has happend before. And what I mean by that is Marist showing Evers ahead and Marquette having a toss-up.

Hmm, something else happened before in terms of polling...in this very state.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?fips=55&class=3

"but 2016" might just be the funniest excuse this entire cycle by Nov 7th

This poll makes more sense with Baldwin's numbers/Walker's approvals (in other polls), although it seems a bit too optimistic.
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2018, 04:39:59 pm »

Sweet. #Over50 too.
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2018, 04:40:05 pm »

He probably wins comfortably but not in a landslide.
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