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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  WI-Marist: Evers +10
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Author Topic: WI-Marist: Evers +10  (Read 3080 times)
PA is Lean D
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« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2018, 04:40:07 pm »

Kavanaugh effect: Evers up 24 points with women, trailing by 4 amongst men.

Evers winning 60% of college graduates, up a point amongst non-college grads.
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History505
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« Reply #26 on: October 11, 2018, 04:52:42 pm »

Walker's time may be just about up.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #27 on: October 11, 2018, 05:05:05 pm »

Kavanaugh effect: Evers up 24 points with women, trailing by 4 amongst men.

Evers winning 60% of college graduates, up a point amongst non-college grads.

Dems were always gonna won MI/PA/WI, I ts the red states OH and FL that matter for Congress
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #28 on: October 11, 2018, 05:05:38 pm »

I mean, just take the average. Evers +5 or 6. That seems about where it's been in most polls lately.
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Xing
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« Reply #29 on: October 11, 2018, 05:40:26 pm »

Definitely a bit Democratic-friendly (okay, maybe more than a bit), but one thing is consistent: Walker is underperforming the GCB in both polls (the Marquette poll was R+3, he was up 1, this poll is D+6, Evers is up 10), which is terrible news for Walker. I don't see how more Republicans turn out in a year like this. I think I'm ready to call this race Lean D. It's too soon to count Walker out, but he's clearly down in the average, and it says something that a poll showing him up just 1% is considered a very good poll for him.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #30 on: October 11, 2018, 05:43:55 pm »

Evers will win 51-49%
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Skye
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« Reply #31 on: October 11, 2018, 06:37:36 pm »

It's like they saw Marquette's poll and said "The F- you don't!".

At least we know they aren't herding.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #32 on: October 11, 2018, 07:01:42 pm »

Please, oh please, be true!
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morgieb
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« Reply #33 on: October 11, 2018, 07:11:31 pm »

Seems a bit over, but the crosstabs do check out. My main worry about certain bits of the Midwest is that they got 2016 really wrong, but hopefully complacency doesn't hit again.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #34 on: October 11, 2018, 07:57:57 pm »

FiftyThirtyEight gives Marist an A rating in reliability. Same with MU. It's crazy how MU has been the only pollster showing Walker leading.

These polls are confusing, but Evers is definitely going to win!
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #35 on: October 11, 2018, 08:24:13 pm »

My guess- Evers +6
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Brittain33
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« Reply #36 on: October 11, 2018, 08:51:41 pm »

Remember that (D)allet beat Sc(R)enock 56%-44%.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #37 on: October 11, 2018, 10:24:19 pm »

Someone with access to poll entries should enter this poll.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #38 on: October 11, 2018, 10:41:41 pm »

Kavanaugh effect: Evers up 24 points with women, trailing by 4 amongst men.

Evers winning 60% of college graduates, up a point amongst non-college grads.

Dems were always gonna won MI/PA/WI, I ts the red states OH and FL that matter for Congress

Um Michigan and Pennsylvania have quite a few battleground districts this year.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #39 on: October 11, 2018, 10:42:23 pm »

Someone with access to poll entries should enter this poll.

Don't count on it. It's a great poll for the Dems so it'll take till Halloween to put in.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #40 on: October 12, 2018, 12:07:28 am »

Eh, there are quite a few red flags with this polls, as has already been noted. The use of RDD instead of the voter file it particularly problematic. Also note that despite having been released later, this poll is actually older than the Marquette one.

The best guess is that the truth lies somewhere between the two polls, but sadly probably closer to Marquette.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #41 on: October 12, 2018, 12:51:16 am »

Either Marquette or Marist is going to look really stupid in a few weeks. Or maybe even both.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #42 on: October 12, 2018, 08:27:05 am »

Uh, no. Walker could very well lose, but definitely not by 10, lol. Then again, Marist sure has shown very interesting numbers this year, especially in the Midwest.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #43 on: October 12, 2018, 08:46:19 am »

Eh, there are quite a few red flags with this polls, as has already been noted. The use of RDD instead of the voter file it particularly problematic. Also note that despite having been released later, this poll is actually older than the Marquette one.

The best guess is that the truth lies somewhere between the two polls, but sadly probably closer to Marquette.



Also Marist weighs by income in place of education.



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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #44 on: October 12, 2018, 09:08:14 am »

Evers won't win by 10, but he's favored to oust anti-union warrior Walker. Evers by 5 in the end would be my prediction.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #45 on: October 12, 2018, 09:12:44 am »

When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #46 on: October 12, 2018, 01:45:46 pm »

When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 

yes I'm sure some geek on the us election atlas dot com forums is this integral to a major big money political campaign

get over yourself
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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #47 on: October 12, 2018, 02:36:13 pm »

Eh, there are quite a few red flags with this polls, as has already been noted. The use of RDD instead of the voter file it particularly problematic. Also note that despite having been released later, this poll is actually older than the Marquette one.

The best guess is that the truth lies somewhere between the two polls, but sadly probably closer to Marquette.



Also Marist weighs by income in place of education.





Oh, that's interesting. Then it seems they're probably about equal in quality (although the fact that the Marquette poll is more recent remains).
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #48 on: October 12, 2018, 09:31:13 pm »

When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 

yes I'm sure some geek on the us election atlas dot com forums is this integral to a major big money political campaign

get over yourself

That's US Election Atlas Dot ORG Slash FORUM, actually.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #49 on: October 14, 2018, 04:01:06 pm »

I just hope the next MU poll doesn't show Walker leading even more. Then, that's when I'll be concerned. Fifty Thirty Eight gives MU Law and Marist both A ratings, so I'm not sure which one I should believe as they are equal in reliability.
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