How likely is it Minnesota flips in 2020?
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  How likely is it Minnesota flips in 2020?
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Poll
Question: Minnesota's margin in 2016 was just 1.5%... how likely is it Minnesota goes red in 2020?
#1
Very likely
 
#2
Somewhat likely
 
#3
Toss-up, will likely go to the presidential winner
 
#4
Not very likely
 
#5
Completely unlikely
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 111

Author Topic: How likely is it Minnesota flips in 2020?  (Read 2927 times)
yakutia
boatfullogoats
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« on: October 11, 2018, 05:47:46 PM »

I think it's rather likely if Trump puts effort into it and the Democratic candidate doesn't realize how close it is like Clinton and the Rust belt... Your thoughts?
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 05:52:01 PM »

I suspect Minnesota in 2016 may be like Oregon in 2000: back in 2004, some people thought that Oregon might flip because it was decided by a fraction of a percent in 2000, but instead it moved the other way.
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Jags
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 05:56:33 PM »

0.01%
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2018, 06:08:35 PM »

Minnesota is back to its DFL awesomeness. It isn’t going for Trump period.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2018, 06:18:21 PM »

Somewhat likely. I would say 20 percent
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2018, 06:21:28 PM »

Highly unlikely.  Minnesota keeps the (D) streak going.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2018, 06:32:15 PM »

Very unlikely
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2018, 06:36:40 PM »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2018, 06:51:07 PM »

Practically nil.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 09:01:54 PM »

It won't
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2018, 12:58:00 AM »

Nope. The GOP is imploding in the Twin Cities suburbs. Lewis and Paulsen are absolutely toast next month.
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Grassroots
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2018, 07:39:59 AM »

Probably not. At least until 2024.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2018, 09:37:23 AM »

Depends on what happens in November, but very unlikely. If Evers, Smith, etc. all win in a landslide and Republicans fail to pick up MN-08 and/or MN-01? Zero chance.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2018, 09:45:48 AM »

Extremely unlikely, but that's more a function of my opinion that Trump is going to lose handily and not some hot take on how Minnesota is Titanium D and its purple-at-best TC suburbs are going to start voting 70/30 Dem soon. Smiley
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2018, 09:53:52 AM »

Not a chance.

The only reason this state was close in 2016 was because so many Obama-voters stayed home that year. A lot of this I think can be attributed to enthusiastic Bernie voters or Hillary/DNC skeptics who didn't want to vote for Clinton but would turn out for most of the 2020 candidates.

Minnesota didn't turn out hard for Trump. He netted ~2.5K votes over Romney. Clinton lost ~175K votes from Obama. It's not an OH/PA-type situation where there were a ton of crossover Obama-Trump voters, just tons of Obama-stay home voters.

This, combined with the fact that Trump's favorables are pretty low in the state, the fact that the state hasn't elected a Republican for anything serious statewide in a hideous amount of time (including 2010 - 2014 where Dems were dropping midwestern races like hot rocks), and the fact that the Twin Cities metro is still maintaining a heavy numerical advantage over the rest of the state (unlike, say, Detroit in Michigan) means that Trump doesn't have a prayer here unless we see some weird divisive primary fight.
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SN2903
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2018, 05:50:29 PM »

30-40% min.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2018, 07:04:50 PM »

Not likely.

I expect Trump to perform worse in a lot of states relative to 2016. I don't know if he'll have a Obama 2012-like rebound in the Midwest, but it stands to reason that even if he does, he'll do worse in Minnesota than his first run.
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RI
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2018, 07:49:51 PM »

If Trump is re-elected, he probably takes MN.
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Jags
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2018, 09:08:51 PM »

Minnesota is Illinois north. Its not gonna happen.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2018, 10:08:40 PM »

Minnesota will continue to be a Democratic state, but going forward the coalitions will look more like the rest of the country: Democrats in the largest city and its suburbs outvoting Republican rural areas.
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Devils30
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2018, 10:25:33 PM »

As of now not 2020 but it will at some point. Maybe in 2028 the Dems win FL, GA, NC but lose Minnesota, NH/ME along with the 2012/2016 Obama/Trump states being red.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2018, 11:17:52 PM »

As of now not 2020 but it will at some point. Maybe in 2028 the Dems win FL, GA, NC but lose Minnesota, NH/ME along with the 2012/2016 Obama/Trump states being red.

The Twin Cities continue to grow and the suburbs have turned against the Republican party, while the rural areas continue to decrease in population.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
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« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2018, 11:32:49 PM »

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Please stop entertaining the idea that Republican takeover of a state where they couldn't elect a single statewide official during the worst years of the Obama Presidency is somehow imminent because voters there didn't want to vote for Hillary Clinton one time.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2018, 08:52:45 AM »

It's not a toss-up and would still vote Democrat in a narrow Trump win, but in a decisive Trump win (say, 2-4% win in PV) it would go to Trump and its not impossible like some people think. But its on the underside of possibilities.
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SN2903
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2018, 08:53:46 AM »

Trump is changing the map. I def think MN is a tossup.
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