How likely is it Minnesota flips in 2020?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Trump is changing the map. I def think MN is a tossup.

LOL what? Trump only has a 38% approval in Minnesota.

Also, he wasn't even able to win it in 2016, what makes you think that he can win it in 2020? Hillary won't be on the ballot in 2020.

Minnesota is NOT a tossup in 2020. It's likely D.

[TDAS04]

Not very likely. 

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Very unlikely. If it would have flipped, it would had to be done in 2016.

[Hammy]

If Trump is re-elected, he probably takes MN.

Trump's best shot of winning Minnesota was 2016 when he didn't have a clear governing record to come under scrutiny. Trump will most likely get reelected but he's not gaining any states, certainly not Minnesota.

[Jburns]

Whether or not Minnesota flips will come down mainly to what kind of candidate the Democratic Party nominates. If the Democrats nominate someone like Bernie Sanders, then it will certainly remain in the Democratic column. Minnesota would be at significantly greater risk of flipping if Democrats nominate a moderate or conservative democrat.

[pops]

About 40-45% chance we flip. Rural MN will be 65-35 Republican in no time at all. The Twin Cities will not get any bluer. The suburbs are not going to swing as far left as many think. Any Democrat that’s not awful should win here, but that’s a high bar given many of the 2020 candidates (Booker, Harris, Biden, etc.) will seriously struggle outside of the cities. If Hickenlooper, Sanders, Merkley, or Bullock are the nominee, Minnesota is probably not going to Trump.

We will be at least a Lean red state by the early 30s.

[Jags]

About 40-45% chance we flip. Rural MN will be 65-35 Republican in no time at all. The Twin Cities will not get any bluer. The suburbs are not going to swing as far left as many think. Any Democrat that’s not awful should win here, but that’s a high bar given many of the 2020 candidates (Booker, Harris, Biden, etc.) will seriously struggle outside of the cities. If Hickenlooper, Sanders, Merkley, or Bullock are the nominee, Minnesota is probably not going to Trump.

We will be at least a Lean red state by the early 30s.

And then you wake up from your wet dream.

[TDAS04]

It's not impossible if Trump (God forbid) wins by a little more than he did in 2016, but I think Minnesota is less likely to change colors in 2020 than Iowa.

[Beet]

If the polling of MN-08 is accurate, the state is gone for the Democrats. And I have a hard time seeing how Peterson holds on if the iron range looks like that.

[ON Progressive]

Very unlikely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the polling of MN-08 is accurate, the state is gone for the Democrats. And I have a hard time seeing how Peterson holds on if the iron range looks like that.

"Let's ignore every other poll of the state this cycle and instead make long term projections based on a single dubious unfinished poll and contradicts the exact same poll done a few weeks earlier."

This is absurd even by your standards.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I would say that MN will probably be 2 points more Republican than the national popular vote. Interpret that as you will.

[morgankingsley]

Okay, here is my revised and now probably solid opinion on the matter. Even if you don't fully agree, I don't think that we can argue that it isn't at least a valid assumption.

Here are three questions.

1. Does Trump win the popular vote?

If he does, Minnesota has a straight up, bar none, 100 percent chance of flipping. There is no way in hell he is going to win the popular vote without minimum Minnesota and New Hampshire. Everything else we can debate, but those two at least he will get in this case.

2. Does Trump get at least 307 electoral votes (popular vote being totally subjective to this one)?

If he does, I would say it has a 50 percent chance of flipping. It is the most likely target to expand his electoral vote. Say what you will about that idea, but that is my belief.

3. Does Trump win 306 or less electoral votes (basically assuring a popular vote defeat)?

If he does, he will almost certainly lose Minnesota. However, just to be extra squeaky clean sure of the odds to make sure nothing totally surprises us, I will still say it has a 1 percent chance of happening on the extremely off chance he flips that state over while also losing some other state like Wisconsin

[Progressive Pessimist]

Minnesota is fool's gold for Republicans. It's their North Carolina/Georgia/and maybe even Arizona.

[un]

Very unlikely. Democrats are still dominating national and state politics here in Minnesota, and polls show the Democrats up in both the gubernatorial and the two senatorial elections. Also, Trump's approval rating in Minnesota is eighteen points in the red, about eight points lower than the national average, which is very low in comparison to a lot of other close states in 2016, like Pennsylvania is down eight, which is two points above the national average, or Florida is up three, which is thirteen points above the national average. Not to mention, Gov. Dayton and our two senators have high approval ratings. So the chance of him flipping it is extremely unlikely at this moment.

[Camaro33]

If in 2020 Trump swings non-college whites any more toward him, I say he takes it. But this seems unlikely, I say 2016 was just about the ceiling in this regard; unless an even more non-white and/or non-male "elitest coastal liberal" beyond the stereotype of Clinton wins the nomination. If that holds true, which is very likely, then MN is a tossup.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota doesn't usually swing much. Trump promised big infrastructure programs, which obviously excited Minnesota's iron miners who understand that more infrastructure means that they prosper. Regrettably the infrastructure program was mostly privatization, which means simply turning free routes into toll routes operated by monopolistic gougers.

That is a flop. Minnesota goes back to being one of those states that goes R only for an Eisenhower-style Republican (Ike won the state twice, along with Massachusetts and Rhode Island. which have historically been among the three toughest states for Republican nominees to win.

Massachusetts and Rhode Island were the only two states outside of the South that Hoover lost in 1928, Rhode Island was the third-worst state for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 in 49-state electoral blowouts, and Massachusetts and Minnesota alternating between second-worst (49th best) and 50th best (worst) for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984.

Minnesota goes to Trump only in a 40+ state blowout for Trump in 2020, and it is more likely that Trump will lose 40 states than win 40.   

[morgankingsley]

Minnesota doesn't usually swing much. Trump promised big infrastructure programs, which obviously excited Minnesota's iron miners who understand that more infrastructure means that they prosper. Regrettably the infrastructure program was mostly privatization, which means simply turning free routes into toll routes operated by monopolistic gougers.

That is a flop. Minnesota goes back to being one of those states that goes R only for an Eisenhower-style Republican (Ike won the state twice, along with Massachusetts and Rhode Island. which have historically been among the three toughest states for Republican nominees to win.

Massachusetts and Rhode Island were the only two states outside of the South that Hoover lost in 1928, Rhode Island was the third-worst state for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 in 49-state electoral blowouts, and Massachusetts and Minnesota alternating between second-worst (49th best) and 50th best (worst) for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984.

Minnesota goes to Trump only in a 40+ state blowout for Trump in 2020, and it is more likely that Trump will lose 40 states than win 40.   

For once an analysis that I can actually fully respect about Minnesota

[pbrower2a]

Eisenhower twice, Obama twice -- white
Eisenhower twice, Obama once  -- light blue
Eisenhower never, Obama once -- pink
No state voted for the Democrat all four times, so no true red appears here
Eisenhower all four times -- blue 
Stevenson twice, McCain, Romney -- dark green
Stevenson once, Eisenhower once, McCain, Romney -- light green.
Did not vote in  the 1950s -- gray. (I assume that Eisenhower won Greater Omaha, but I can't subdivide Maine by district in the 1950s, although Ike won the state 70-30, so I figure that he would have won both ocf what were Maine's 2008 and 2012 Congressional districts as did Obama. 

Democrats are more likely to nominate someone similar to Obama in ideology and temperament than anyone else in 2020... although America has changed greatly since the 1950s, Eisenhower was the liberal on race relations in the 1950s. Guess which President I consider most similar to Obama!

[Ye We Can]

It will not vote for an unpopular incumbent Republican. That being said, I fail to see why a state that was decided by 1 percent won't be competitive in the near future notwithstanding the D trend in Twin Cities environs

[Koharu]

As a Minnesotan who grew up in a county that went for Trump by 65%: lolololololol

IMO, Trump hit his ceiling in Minnesota. Everything worked out perfectly for him in 2016. Democrats in the Twin Cities are especially riled now, and I don't see that changing by 2020. There were also a lot of people who were willing to give Trump a chance and held their noses to vote for him, but now they are disgusted and won't turn out. And, thankfully, Minnesota won't be implementing any sort of voter ID laws to depress turnout. In addition, Trump's actions in regards to immigration have actually gotten recent immigrants more willing to be involved in the political process, and Minnesota has a significant immigrant population. Pockets of southern Minnesota that are in deep Trump territory contain Latinos who are pissed.

You can see the difference if you compare Watonwan County to Martin County, both in southern MN. Nobles County vs Jackson County is also telling. Watonwan and Nobles have much higher Latino population than the adjoining counties, and many of these populations are very established families who have every reason to turn out to vote. Before, people's votes were based on theoreticals. Now it's based on what we've seen, and people aren't going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Koharu]

About 40-45% chance we flip. Rural MN will be 65-35 Republican in no time at all. The Twin Cities will not get any bluer. The suburbs are not going to swing as far left as many think. Any Democrat that’s not awful should win here, but that’s a high bar given many of the 2020 candidates (Booker, Harris, Biden, etc.) will seriously struggle outside of the cities. If Hickenlooper, Sanders, Merkley, or Bullock are the nominee, Minnesota is probably not going to Trump.

We will be at least a Lean red state by the early 30s.

Do you know anything about rural Minnesota?

Right now, especially southern Minnesota, the rural communities are dying. Schools are consolidating and many of them can't consolidate any more because kids are on the bus for over an hour. My graduating class size was 25 in 2004; that's a big class now compared to the schools left. Right now, the only population growing in these areas is immigrants, many of them legal. They are starting to turn out to vote more and they are not happy with what Republicans are doing.

So, yes, right now many of the rural counties are trending 65-35. But the Silent Generation is almost gone and the Boomers are doing off fast now, too. Those counties are at about peak Republican, and while it will take a while for the numbers to shift, we will see it.

I can't speak as knowledgeably about northern Minnesota, but my understanding is that those communities are dying, too, just not as quickly.

Oh, and while the Cities might not be able to get "more blue," Mankato and Rochester surely can and are trending that way while growing by leaps and bounds.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good posts Koharu. Here's another thing I like to point out: college turnout in 2016 sucked. That's why Hillary lost Blue Earth, Nicollet, Winona, Rice and Clay counties. Not likely to happen again with how riled and anti-Trump college campuses are now.