How likely is it Minnesota flips in 2020?

[morgankingsley]

Somewhat likely. I would say 20 percent

[morgankingsley]

Okay, here is my revised and now probably solid opinion on the matter. Even if you don't fully agree, I don't think that we can argue that it isn't at least a valid assumption.

Here are three questions.

1. Does Trump win the popular vote?

If he does, Minnesota has a straight up, bar none, 100 percent chance of flipping. There is no way in hell he is going to win the popular vote without minimum Minnesota and New Hampshire. Everything else we can debate, but those two at least he will get in this case.

2. Does Trump get at least 307 electoral votes (popular vote being totally subjective to this one)?

If he does, I would say it has a 50 percent chance of flipping. It is the most likely target to expand his electoral vote. Say what you will about that idea, but that is my belief.

3. Does Trump win 306 or less electoral votes (basically assuring a popular vote defeat)?

If he does, he will almost certainly lose Minnesota. However, just to be extra squeaky clean sure of the odds to make sure nothing totally surprises us, I will still say it has a 1 percent chance of happening on the extremely off chance he flips that state over while also losing some other state like Wisconsin

[morgankingsley]

Minnesota doesn't usually swing much. Trump promised big infrastructure programs, which obviously excited Minnesota's iron miners who understand that more infrastructure means that they prosper. Regrettably the infrastructure program was mostly privatization, which means simply turning free routes into toll routes operated by monopolistic gougers.

That is a flop. Minnesota goes back to being one of those states that goes R only for an Eisenhower-style Republican (Ike won the state twice, along with Massachusetts and Rhode Island. which have historically been among the three toughest states for Republican nominees to win.

Massachusetts and Rhode Island were the only two states outside of the South that Hoover lost in 1928, Rhode Island was the third-worst state for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 in 49-state electoral blowouts, and Massachusetts and Minnesota alternating between second-worst (49th best) and 50th best (worst) for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984.

Minnesota goes to Trump only in a 40+ state blowout for Trump in 2020, and it is more likely that Trump will lose 40 states than win 40.   

For once an analysis that I can actually fully respect about Minnesota