How likely is it Minnesota flips in 2020?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Not a chance.

The only reason this state was close in 2016 was because so many Obama-voters stayed home that year. A lot of this I think can be attributed to enthusiastic Bernie voters or Hillary/DNC skeptics who didn't want to vote for Clinton but would turn out for most of the 2020 candidates.

Minnesota didn't turn out hard for Trump. He netted ~2.5K votes over Romney. Clinton lost ~175K votes from Obama. It's not an OH/PA-type situation where there were a ton of crossover Obama-Trump voters, just tons of Obama-stay home voters.

This, combined with the fact that Trump's favorables are pretty low in the state, the fact that the state hasn't elected a Republican for anything serious statewide in a hideous amount of time (including 2010 - 2014 where Dems were dropping midwestern races like hot rocks), and the fact that the Twin Cities metro is still maintaining a heavy numerical advantage over the rest of the state (unlike, say, Detroit in Michigan) means that Trump doesn't have a prayer here unless we see some weird divisive primary fight.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide since Tim Pawlenty

Please stop entertaining the idea that Republican takeover of a state where they couldn't elect a single statewide official during the worst years of the Obama Presidency is somehow imminent because voters there didn't want to vote for Hillary Clinton one time.